El Nino has arrived in 2019. So far, it’s pretty weak. That doesn’t mean it will stay that way.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced Thursday that this natural climate phenomenon — which is triggered by warmer temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and can significantly affect weather in the U.S. — will likely persist through the spring. But what happens next is still unclear.
“We don’t have a good handle on where this goes the rest of the year,” Mike Halpert, the deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in an interview. “It becomes kind of a tossup after spring.”
El Nino events happen when the warmer temperatures on the surface of the Pacific Ocean pass heat to the atmosphere, resulting in warmer air that naturally holds more moisture. “This allows more moisture to come to the U.S.,” Jeff Weber, a meteorologist with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, said in an interview.
Typically, this means above-average rain and snow across the southern regions of the United States, especially California. Conversely, the northern U.S. often sees less precipitation and warmer-than-average temperatures.
“That is what we expect in the next spring months,” said Weber.
Already, the West Coast has been pummeled by rain and snow events this winter, meaning up to 15 feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and 8 inches of rain in some California areas. El Nino conditions may have contributed to these big precipitation events, noted Weber. Though, NOAA found that another climate phenomenon, the Madden Julian Oscillation, has also contributed to the wet season in some places.
Big El Nino events — in which the ocean warms significantly more than this year — have planetary-wide consequences. Good examples are the big El Nino events of 2016-2017 and 1998-1999.
“Those have a big footprint on global annual temperatures,” noted Halpert.
Although such a mighty El Nino event isn’t in the cards this year, when it does happen, the vast Pacific Ocean adds enormous amounts of heat to Earth’s atmosphere.
“That adds to the overall heat content of the planet, so to speak,” said Weber.
El Nino events also have big implications for hurricane season in the U.S. Specifically, higher atmospheric winds (known as the jet stream) kick up over the southern U.S. during El Nino years, which can doom hurricanes.
“These winds tear apart hurricanes,” said Weber.
A strengthening El Niño was the main reason 2015 & 2016 were warmer than 2014, with weak La Niña (2017) or neutral (2018) conditions explaining why 2017 & 2018 were cooller.
As of now, however, there’s still scant evidence that this weaker El Nino will last beyond spring. Hurricane seasons — which have been historically devastating in recent years — begin in early June.
NOAA will keep watch over how this El Nino develops over the coming months. For now, temperature’s in the Pacific are a bit warmer than average (about 1 degree Fahrenheit or 0.5 degrees Celsius), but not quite enough to portend big changes — yet.
“I wouldn’t necessarily say this event has a big impact unless the [El Nino] event really takes off,” said Halpert.
Moscow, Ankara and Tehran see the planned United States withdrawal from Syria as a positive step, leaders of the three countries said after a summit in Russia about the Syrian crisis.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, one of the Syrian government’s closest allies, hosted the summit in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Thursday to discuss the future of Syria with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and their Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani.
At a press briefing following the meeting, Putin said that the three leaders agreed that the US pullout from northeastern Syria “would be a positive step that would help stabilize the situation in this region, where ultimately the legitimate government should re-establish control”.
However, Putin also said that Russia had not seen any big changes suggesting the US was moving to withdraw its troops fromSyria.
Putin said US President Donald Trump was trying to fulfil election campaign promises by ordering the troop withdrawal, but that he was not able to because of what Putin described as internal political issues.
‘No clear timeline for pullout’
Erdogan said that there is no clear timeline for the US troop withdrawal, adding that Trump’s own team disagrees with the US president over the planned pullout.
The Turkish leader also said that coordination between Russia, Iran and Turkey during the US withdrawal was important to his government. He said that hopes for a political resolution to the conflict in Syria have never been stronger.
Rouhani said the presence of the US in the Middle East harmed countries in the region and called on Washington to fully withdraw its troops from the region.
In December, the US president ordered the withdrawal of all US forces in Syria, which are believed to number around 2,000.
Trump said the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS) had been completely defeated and that the US troops could, therefore, come home. In January the US announced withdrawal had begun, but so far only involved US vehicles leaving Syria.
After Thursday’s summit, Putin told Turkey and Iran he wanted to devise a joint plan to wipe out what he called “a hotbed of terrorists” in Syria’s Idlib region, an idea Moscow has so far tried and failed to sell to Ankara.
“We should not put up with the presence of terrorist groups in Idlib,” Putin told Erdogan and Rouhani.
“That’s why I propose we consider practical concrete steps that Russia, Turkey and Iran can take to completely destroy this hotbed of terrorists.”
Putin’s spokesman told Russian news agencies that no new military operation against Idlib had been agreed on.
Idlib deal
Turkey, which backs moderate Syrian rebels, and Russia, the Syrian government’s principal foreign ally, agreed in September to create a demilitarised zone in Idlib, the last stronghold of Syrian rebels, which would be evacuated of all heavy weapons and hardline combatants.
Ankara pledged to disarm and remove the Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) armed group that dominates and continues to expand its reach in the region.
In return, the Russian-backed Syrian government said it would hold off launching a major military operation to wipe out HTS, once affiliated with al-Qaeda.
All three countries have forces on the ground in Syria where they have coordinated their efforts despite sometimes differing priorities and interests.
Ankara is concerned about potential refugee flows from Idlib in the event of a military operation, and wants to retain its influence in the region on its border.
At the summit, the three leaders also expressed their support for the territorial integrity of Syria.
“The presidents expressed their determination to stand against separatist agendas aimed at undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria as well as the national security of neighbouring countries,” read a joint statement released following the trilateral summit.
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Two years ago, Katy Perry‘s “Bon Appetit” video turned the pop star into an actual banquet of food feasted upon by hungry (and presumably wealthy) onlookers. That era of “purposeful pop” might be behind her, but in her latest video for “365” with Zedd, Perry once again finds herself the center of attention — only this time, she’s an android.
As scientists work to transform her A.I. shell into Stepford-wife perfect, Perry sings about falling too hard into something that might just be meant as a fling. You might not even notice what the song’s “about” at first though, because — I can’t stress this enough — Katy Perry plays a frightening robotic 1950s housewife. And Zedd is her human test subject.
When she’s not being a Fifth Element-ized Betty Draper in the dining room, an androgynous Perry delivers the song in a vividly dark-red lab room rocking a look reminiscent of known Ghostbusters foe Gozer the Gozerian (with a touch of Max Headroom). But with her subtle tweaks and twitches, she’s even more unsettling in her humanlike form.
Because there’s a robot involved — much like in Kehlani’s latest clip for “Nights Like This” — there’s obviously a twist, but you’ll have to watch for yourself to find out what it is. Perry promoted “365” on her social accounts with a poster that makes it look like a terrifying dystopian sci-fi horror movie, and hey, maybe it is. And maybe there’s even more where it came from?
Check out all the madness above and try to answer the query posed in the video’s prologue: “Define love.” Happy Valentine’s Day!
Hulu’s says Ashton Sanders, Shameik Moore, Zolee Griggs and Erika Alexander have all been cast in “Wu-Tang: An American Saga.” The 10-episode series is based on the true story of the Wu-Tang Clan. The series is created, written and executive produced by Alex Tse. Wu-Tang members Method Man and RZA are also executive producers.
In news that should surprise absolutely no one, the Denver Broncos entered 2019 near the top of the list of NFL teams in need of a boost at quarterback.
The first season of Case Keenum’s two-year, $36 million pact with Denver was a mess. The well-traveled passer regressed substantially relative to his 2017 breakout in Minnesota and the Broncos lost double-digit games for the second year in a row.
Speculation’s been rampant that the second year of that deal would include Denver taking a quarterback with the 10th overall pick.
It now looks like what it won’t include is Keenum.
As Mike Klis reported for 9 News in Denver, when the league year opens on March 13, one of the first orders of business will be the Broncos dealing a fourth-round pick to the Baltimore Ravens for veteran quarterback (and Super Bowl XLVII MVP) Joe Flacco. The 34-year-old made nine starts for the Ravens last year before being benched in favor of Lamar Jackson.
This is a move that could have a significant impact, not just in Denver and Baltimore, but also across the NFL.
Here’s a look at the effect the deal could have, both on those teams and all the others impacted by the QB carousel losing (and likely gaining) a horse.
Round and round we go.
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Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
This much we know: Case Keenum’s days in Denver are numbered. Whether it’s via a trade or his outright release, Denver GM John Elway isn’t keeping $40 million worth of mediocre veteran quarterbacks on the payroll.
Even he’s not that desperate to fix things under center…I think.
However, there just might be a team that is desperate enough for a short-term fix to tie up a big chunk of their cap space on quarterbacks because their starter is hurt so badly it looks like his entire 2019 season is about to be wiped out.
That team is the Washington Redskins.
Redskins tailback Chris Thompson recently said what everyone’s been thinking for some time: After a horrific leg injury last November, veteran quarterback Alex Smith probably isn’t playing in 2019.
“When I did talk to [Smith], he’s staying about positive about it. We know and understand that it’s probably not going to happen that we have him this year,” Thompson told NBC Sports Washington on Tuesday (h/t NFL.com’s Jeremy Bergman). “He’s a hard working guy, He’s gonna do whatever he can to get back, if he decides that he wants to put that workload on his leg again.”
Getting Keenum in under the cap wouldn’t be easy; his 2019 salary of $18 million would just about wipe out Washington’s cap space.
But every year we see teams manufacture cap space with cuts and restructures, and Keenum would give the team a stopgap starter they would only be committed to for a single season. Then they can re-examine Smith’s health and go from there.
Never mind that he could likely be had for a bag of Funyuns if it gets him off Denver’s books.
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Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
If you’ve been scratching your head trying to figure out how Joe Flacco is a substantial upgrade over Case Keenum in Denver, you aren’t alone. In fact, Keenum’s been better than Flacco in just about every statistical category the past two years, whether it’s completion percentage, passer rating or touchdown-to-interception ratio.
He’s also nearly four years older than Keenum. By no stretch of the imagination is Flacco a long-term solution for Denver at quarterback. He’s the same thing Keenum would have been—a stopgap while the team grooms his young successor.
In other words, Denver’s plan for the first round hasn’t changed…much.
The odds of the Broncos selecting a quarterback like Missouri’s Drew Lock, Duke’s Daniel Jones or West Virginia’s Will Grier with the 10th overall pick on April 25 are still excellent. This trade only serves to underscore just how badly Elway’s feeling the squeeze to end his cold streak at acquiring a quality option at the game’s most important position.
However, whoever Elway picks will now much more likely have to come at No. 10 overall and not before. The Broncos just shipped one of their fourth-rounders to Baltimore to get Flacco (the team got an extra one in the deal that sent Demaryius Thomas to Houston).
The picks required to then move up this year would all but gut Denver’s 2019 draft class in a year where the quarterback crop isn’t viewed as a bumper one and Denver has both multiple holes to fill and not a ton of cap space with which to fill them–especially when you consider Keenum’s cap hit, which could be as high as $10 million.
That could be become a problem, because…
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Mark Brown/Getty Images
We know a few things about the Miami Dolphins’ quarterback situation in 2019.
The first is that it isn’t good.
By all indications, Ryan Tannehill’s time with the team is finished. Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald reported last month that the Fins are embarking on a ground-up rebuild, and one of the first steps in that rebuild will be showing Tannehill the door.
Granted, Salguero also speculated that the Dolphins were essentially prepared to punt on the 2019 season, possibly in the hopes of securing Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa in 2020 or Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence in 2021.
However, there’s an alternate strategy the Dolphins could employ that wouldn’t involve taking quite so many lumps.
Yes, the Broncos are all but certainly still targeting a quarterback at No. 10. But the odds of them moving up to grab one just went way down. That’s one less potential buyer for a high pick in a draft where seven of the nine teams in front of the Broncos could be sellers because they don’t have a glaring need under center.
It could be as many as eight if the Buccaneers decide to stand pat with Jameis Winston and the Jacksonville Jaguars acquire Nick Foles.
More on that in a second.
We go through this every year the class at quarterback isn’t hip-deep in awesome. Early mock drafts with only two or three selected in the first round. Growing buzz around a couple more. That much more buzz at the combine. A billion rumors about potential trades. And then at least a couple of quarterbacks going earlier than we thought.
When you don’t have one, it’s that much easier to fall for one.
This isn’t to say the Dolphins will mortgage the future in a trade with the Arizona Cardinals to move up to No. 1. That would admittedly be an expensive proposition.
Moving up from No. 13 to No. 8 (Detroit) or No. 9 (Buffalo) wouldn’t break the bank though.
Don’t get mad at me. I just write what the Magic 8-Ball tells me to.
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Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
Frankly, I don’t know that the Flacco trade had that much direct impact on the futures of either the Jacksonville Jaguars or veteran quarterback (and Super Bowl LII MVP) Nick Foles.
But every time a veteran signal-caller not named Nick Foles lands with a team not called the Jacksonville Jaguars, the odds of this long-rumored union happening increase.
Per Brandon Lee Gowton of SB Nation, NFL Network analyst Mike Garafolo indicated that Denver had kicked the tires on Foles, but the Jaguars have talked financing and looked at upholstery options.
“My understanding,” Garafolo said, “is that Denver had done a little bit of work on Nick Foles, but not a lot of work on Nick Foles. And now we know it’s because it was a fallback plan should the Joe Flacco situation not work out for them. So, I really didn’t see them as an aggressive [suitor]. So, now everybody’s making the connection to Jacksonville for Foles, and it’s an obvious one. And I do believe they are interested there, and there’s going to be mutual interest.”
There’s good reason why so many people have connected Foles to the Jags. Jacksonville is a team in a “win-now” window after investing approximately all the money ever in their defense. The team needs help badly enough at quarterback to be comfortable paying the rumored asking price of a third-round pick. Former Philly QB coach John DeFilippo is now in J-Ville. And the Eagles want no part of trading Foles to a team like the Giants or Redskins.
In case you were wondering, the Jaguars and Eagles don’t meet in 2019.
Frankly, a tag-and-trade might even be the best-case scenario for the Jaguars. In theory, it would offer the team a one-year audition with Foles before they commit a massive amount of cash.
You know, just in case he turns out to be Flacco 2.0—a so-so quarterback whose value was inflated by one magical playoff run.
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Alex Menendez/Getty Images
With the greatest quarterback in Ravens franchise history now unceremoniously shipped off to Denver, the Ravens are officially Lamar Jackson’s team. Most of what the Ravens do this offseason will be about building around what the second-year quarterback does well and trying to paper over what he doesn’t.
Time will tell whether that’s a wise plan, but make no mistake—that’s the plan.
Part of new general manager Eric DeCosta’s to-do list now includes finding a new backup for Jackson.
And to solve that problem in the present, DeCosta should (and would) look to the team’s past.
Veteran free agent-to be Tyrod Taylor spent the first four years of his career backing up Joe Flacco with the Ravens before moving on to start for the Buffalo Bills. In 2015, Taylor’s first year in Buffalo, he played under current Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
The result? Career-highs in passing yards, completion percentage, touchdowns, yards per attempt and passer rating—and a trip to the Pro Bowl.
Per ESPN’s Jamison Hensley, back in 2016, Taylor had only good things to say about Roman.
“Oh, it’s great to play for coach Roman,” Taylor said. “A brilliant coach, first and foremost. Does a great job every week of scheming.”
In addition to that familiarity with Roman’s scheme, of the available free-agent quarterbacks, Taylor’s skill set most closely resembles Jackson’s. Taylor has had some success at the NFL level (he did get the Bills to the playoffs, after all), and he’d be a fine mentor for Baltimore’s franchise quarterback.
It’s a union that makes too much sense not to happen.
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Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images
With all due respect to John Elway’s greatness as a player, he’s been abysmal at finding the Broncos a dependable quarterback.
Yes, Denver won a Super Bowl in Peyton Manning‘s fourth year with the team, and it was Elway who brought Manning to town. But that Super Bowl win was in spite of Manning, not because of him.
And outside of that one no-brainer acquisition, it’s been one disaster after another.
The draft picks haven’t panned out; three seasons after taking Paxton Lynch in the first round, he failed to make an NFL roster after the Broncos released him in 2018. The free agents haven’t fared much better, with Keenum serving as the latest (and most expensive) failure.
Well, until now, anyway.
There isn’t an objective measure that can be pointed to that indicates Flacco gets the Broncos a millimeter closer to respectability than the team would have been with Keenum. Not one. Yes, Flacco won a Super Bowl. But that was a long time ago.
Over the last four seasons—with a better supporting cast around him than he’ll have in 2019—Flacco was three games under .500. He threw 46 interceptions over that span and posted an 82.7 passer rating.
The Broncos didn’t save any money. In fact, depending on how the Keenum situation plays out, they could be on the hook for much more money.
The team is no better today than it was yesterday.
The loss of that draft pick leaves the Broncos three avenues where drafting a rookie quarterback is concerned. Roll the dice in later rounds (again), gut this year’s draft to move up or stand pat at No. 10 and wind up with the third quarterback taken—if they’re lucky.
None of those options are especially good.
It’s a move that’s more desperation than bravery. More panic than prescient.
Facebook’s automated ad approval system can be fairly easily tricked, making it possible to buy ads to spread misinformation and fake news ahead of the Nigeria elections, an Al Jazeera investigation has found.
Last month, Facebook said it would temporarily disallow political ads targeting Nigeria from being purchased outside the country in an attempt to prevent foreign influence in the February 16 elections.
The ads Al Jazeera was able to get Facebook to approve included a false claim that armed group Boko Haram would take part in the elections.
Other claims included US President Donald Trump voicing his support for opposition leader Atiku Abubakar, the deadline for collection of personal voter cards in Nigeria being extended by a week, and thousands of Nigerian refugees getting a voting extension after the February 16 election date.
All four claims were false but Facebook approved ads for the stories to be run on the social media platform after Al Jazeera made slight changes to them to overcome Facebook’s initial rejections, effectively tricking Facebook’s approval system.
Facebook also approved an ad that falsely stated US President Donald Trump supported the Nigerian opposition [Al Jazeera]
The ads were deactivated by Al Jazeera before they ran on the platform and the website where the news stories were posted was hidden from the public to ensure the stories are not read or picked up by search engines.
“This is worrying. One would like to see Facebook doing more to fact-check claims in political advertising during a political campaign period,” Herman Wasserman, professor of Media Studies at the University of Cape Town, told Al Jazeera.
“The evidence seems to suggest that their system does not work as effectively as it should,” Wasserman, whose research has included the spread of fake news in sub-Saharan Africa, added.
The ads were deactived by Al Jazeera before they ran on the social media platform [Screenshot/Al Jazeera]
Facebook Ad Manager
To buy ads on Facebook, users have to go through Facebook’s Ad Manager, an automated system that not only allows users to focus their advertisements on a very specific audience, but also approves ads before publication.
Any of these four advertisements containing political content should have been declined by that automated system given that they were placed from Qatar and that Facebook had announced that it would not allow users to buy political ads from outside of Nigeria.
While Facebook’s system initially turned down all four ads, Al Jazeera was ultimately able to circumvent this system and get them all approved, using several simple techniques including changing how the information was presented.
Facebook’s tool allowed Al Jazeera to aim the sponsored messages at people living in Nigeria and interested in the two main political parties and their leaders.
The potential reach of the ads was estimated by Facebook’s system at the time to be anywhere between seven and 17 million people.
Facebook’s Ad Manager toold predicted a maximum potential reach of 17 million people [Screenshot/Al Jazeera]
Al Jazeera did not actually run these ads on Facebook because as a legitimate media company Al Jazeera did not want to spread fake news that could possibly affect the elections.
That website where the false news was published has since been taken offline to prevent anyone from accidentally coming across the stories posted.
Asked how it was possible to buy political ads for fake news from outside of Nigeria, a Facebook spokesperson told Al Jazeera that “it is committed to fighting the spread of false news on Facebook, and protecting election integrity”, but that there is no “silver bullet” to this issue.”
Facebook said this “requires a multi-pronged approach” and that it has implemented several solutions already, including teaming up with local third-party fact checkers, rolling out educational tips on national and regional media across Nigeria, and introducing new options in English and Hausa so people can report posts that contain incorrect election information, encourage violence or otherwise violate its Community Standards.
“Although false news does not in and of itself violate our Community Standards, it often violates our policies in other categories, which can lead to removal, as occurred here,” Facebook told Al Jazeera.
“The majority of these ads were rejected for policy violations and never appeared on Facebook,” the spokesperson said, referring to Al Jazeera’s ads that were initially not approved.
“The small number that were approved were paused before they went live and likely would have received limited to zero distribution on Facebook as a result of additional violations of our advertising policies,” Facebook told Al Jazeera.
“While we have made good progress, we recognise there is always more we can do because the threats we face keep evolving – but we’ll continue to work on improving our systems and technology to prevent abuse.”
The ads could have possibly affected voter turnout in the Nigerian elections [Screenshot/Al Jazeera]
Increased attempts to stop disinformation
Last month, Facebook also announced it would actively take measures against misinformation during several 2019 elections, including Nigeria, the EU, Ukraine and India.
“Earlier this month in Nigeria, we began temporarily disallowing electoral ads purchased from outside the country ahead of the election and will implement the same policy in Ukraine ahead of their election,” a Facebook statement from last month said.
“Advertisers will need to be authorized to purchase political ads; we’ll give people more information about ads related to politics and issues; and we’ll create a publicly searchable library of these ads for up to seven years,” the statement added.
If the sponsored messages had been shown on Facebook, they could have potentially influenced the elections, although it is unclear to what extent.
Facebook ad reach [Al Jazeera]
“There are quite a number of factors that influence voters’ behaviour, of which media content and advertising is just one aspect,” added Wasserman.
“So while such articles certainly could have an influence, it is not possible to quantify that influence merely on the basis of the number of people they would reach,” he added.
“People could read them critically and reject their message for example.”
Fake news and the US elections
Although quantitative evidence about the effects of fake news is still lacking, Facebook has come under scrutiny for its role in the spread of disinformation following the 2016 US Presidential Elections.
According to investigations by the US government, Facebook may have been used extensively by, among others, Russian government actors to spread fake news ahead of the elections.
Since then, Facebook has tried to combat fake news by hiring more people and creating partnerships with fact checking organisations.
Bluntly, it’s now easier to produce and spread professional-looking fakes than ever before.
Ben Nimmo, DFR Lab
Facebook has also partnered with the Digital Forensic Research (DFR) Lab, which is helping the social media platform in identifying disinformation and fake accounts.
“We’ve seen a real revolution in disinformation over the past decade. It’s been driven by two developments: the accessibility of digital editing and publishing tools, and the rise of social media,” the head of DFR Lab, Ben Nimmo, told Al Jazeera.
“Bluntly, it’s now easier to produce and spread professional-looking fakes than ever before. There’s an increasing concern about fake news everywhere.”
“There are far more people telling lies online than there are people dedicated to exposing them, so it’s always going to be an uphill struggle.”
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has condemned the suicide bombing in the country’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, and vowed to punish the “criminal mercenaries” who carried out the attack that killed 27 members of the elite Revolutionary Guard.
“Without a doubt, all perpetrators and those who ordered this vicious, flagrant act will be punished soon with the hard work of the powerful security forces of the country,” Rouhani said in a statement published in his website on Thursday.
He also said that the attack on Wednesday night is “another shame in the dark history of the main sponsors of terrorism”, drawing a link between the incident and actions by the US, Israel and their “regional agents” against Iran.
Iran denounces US-led Middle East conference in Warsaw
In a separate statement before leaving for the Russian city of Sochi, Rouhani was also quoted by IRNA news agency as saying that Tehran will make those responsible for the deadly incident “pay for the blood of our martyrs”.
On Thursday, Ahmad Ali Mouhebati, governor general of Sistan-Baluchestan, which borders Pakistan, declared three days of mourning period in honour of the victims.
Bahram Ghasemi, spokesman of the Foreign Ministry, also issued a statement saying the attack will be “avenged soon”.
“The self-sacrificing Iranian military and intelligence personnel will take revenge for the martyrs of this incident,” Ghasemi said on Thursday.
Earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that “it is no coincidence” that his country was hit on the same day that the US held a summit in Poland, which is seen as aimed at countering Iran.
“US seems to always make the same wrong choices, but expect different results,” he wrote on social media on Wednesday shortly after the attack.
‘Saudi-backed’ group
The armed group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) has claimed responsibility for the attack, which also left dozens of other Revolutionary Guard members injured.
27 IRGC forces have been killed so far in a terrorist attack on their bus by Takfiri elements in #Iran‘s Sistan Baluchestan province pic.twitter.com/tB6fTXo9GK
Abas Aslani, a visiting scholar at the Centre for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, said that Jaish al-Adl is an offshoot of the armed group, Jundallah, whose leader Abdolmalek Rigi was captured and executed by Iran in 2010.
He said the new armed group is “supported and sponsored” by Saudi Arabia, to carry out attacks inside Iran, its regional rival.
Jaish al-Adl and its affiliate groups based in neighbouring Pakistan have been accused of committing cross-border attacks against Iranian forces.
Aslani said that the attack demonstrates the “contradiction” of what Saudi Arabia and its ally the US are doing in the Polish capital, Warsaw, and what is happening on the ground in the Middle East.
“In Warsaw, the slogan is the fight against terrorism, and the effort to bring stability to the region. But here in the region, something else is happening,” he said, pointing to the deadly incident last night.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards targeted in Ahvaz military parade
Aslani said he expects a swift response from the government against those who are responsible, but added that Tehran “will not apply the same approach” as its enemies, and will not be baited into an escalation of violence.
Fateme Karimkhan, a Tehran-based journalist, said there is a brewing anger among ordinary Iranians following Wednesday’s attack, which she said targets “very young” soldiers serving their compulsory military service “in very dangerous situation”.
The attack also hurts the local population in Sistan-Baluchestan, which is trying to introduce the area as a tourism destination as a way to help reduce poverty in the region, she said, while laying part of the blame on neighbouring Pakistan, which shares a porous border with Iran.
“The repetition of this kind of attacks are increasing recently, and the government in Pakistan is doing nothing about this terroristic groups which attacks Iran’s soldiers and go back to Pakistan,” she added.
Karimkhan predicted that Iran’s military will not stay quiet on the issue, hinting at more pressure on the Pakistani government.
She pointed to a comment on social media on Thursday by Hesamaldin Ashena, an adviser of Rouhani, who wrote, “Those who are not committed to Iran’s security should worry about disrupting their own security.”
“I think this statement is a serious threat against Pakistan. But that does mean Iran will do something with ‘hard power’? I don’t think so.”
The mangled wreckage of the bus that was targeted by a suicide bomber on Wednesday. [FARS NEWS/EPA]
In December 2010, an estimated 41 people were also killed and 90 others were wounded after a suicide attack near a mosque also in Chabahar.
At least 29 people, many of them Revolutionary Guard draftees, were killed in Ahvazin September during a military parade commemorating the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988.
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP on March 27, 2018, about last year’s omnibus spending bill, which came in at 878 pages: “But I say to Congress: I will never sign another bill like this again. I’m not going to do it again. Nobody read it. It’s only hours old. Some people don’t even know what is in — $1.3 trillion — it’s the second largest ever.”
WELL … Congress released its spending bill very, very late Wednesday night. It’s 1,159 pages. It will get a vote today, first in the Senate, then in the House. Read the bill
IT SEEMS EXCEEDINGLY LIKELY THAT, by tonight, the government will be funded through September, and the two-and-a-half-month legislative impasse over DHS funding will be a thing of the past. There are a few dynamics to keep in mind as Washington moves forward:
— TRUMP IS LIKELY TO TRY TO GET MORE MONEY for his border wall. There are several avenues he could go down. He could declare a national emergency, or issue an executive order. He could also try to shuffle money from other accounts. There’s political and practical risk in all approaches. He could get challenged in court. He could chafe lawmakers on Capitol Hill. If he digs into military accounts, hawks won’t be pleased. Democrats are going to keep a close eye on this process too.
— THE DEBT LIMIT comes up at the beginning of March, and if you thought government funding was a potent legislative inflection point, the debt cap is far more dangerous. TRUMP has not played debt-limit chicken yet. But with Republicans in the House minority, and Democrats only now getting accustomed to the levers of power, who knows what might happen?
THE POLITICO GOVERNMENT FUNDING LEDEALL … SARAH FERRIS, MELANIE ZANONA and JOHN BRESNAHAN: “Congress rushes to avert shutdown amid hopeful signs from Trump”: “Congressional negotiators finalized a massive funding package just before midnight Wednesday, confident they’ll have enough support to deliver it to President Trump’s desk in time to avert a shutdown.” POLITICO
WHAT YOU SHOULD EXPECT: THE SENATE will move to pass this bill first today. THE HOUSE expects to take it up around 6:30 p.m., lining it up for a vote tonight at 9 p.m. or so. A big Senate vote is expected, and that could push the House totals up.
— THINGS THEY COULDN’T AGREE ON: Reauthorizing the Violence Against Women Act. They also weren’t able to come together to support back pay for federal contractors.
KEEP AN EYE ONTRUMP TODAY. If he stays the course and doesn’t say anything outwardly negative about the spending deal, House Republicans will likely vote for it in big numbers. If he gets wobbly in any way, then things will get really hairy.
NYT A1 … PETER BAKER and MAGGIE HABERMAN: “As he inched closer to reluctantly accepting a bipartisan spending compromise without the money he demanded for his border wall, Mr. Trump offered no acknowledgment on Wednesday that his pressure tactics had failed even as aides sought to minimize the damage by tamping down criticism on the right.
“One call was made to Lou Dobbs, a favorite of Mr. Trump’s whose Fox Business Network show he often tries to catch live. Another was placed to Sean Hannity, the Fox host who regularly talks with the president. The message: Mr. Trump deserved support because he still forced concessions that he would never have gotten without a five-week partial government shutdown.
“Even so, it was arguably the most punishing defeat Mr. Trump has experienced as president, and it left the White House scrounging for other ways to pay for a wall on the southwestern border and rethinking its approach to a Congress now partly controlled by Democrats. Mr. Trump’s inability to reach a satisfying deal despite the negotiating experience he regularly touted on the campaign trail suggested that any aspirations of collaboration across party lines may be even more elusive than he had imagined.” NYT
Happy Valentine’s Day!
GABBY ORR: “‘He was in his face’: Trump fumes over abortion, courts evangelicals”: “The night before last week’s National Prayer Breakfast, President Donald Trump was hosting religious leaders and lawmakers for dinner at the White House when he spotted Democratic Senator Chris Coons — and pounced. Trump confronted the Delaware lawmaker — who attended the event as the Prayer Breakfast’s official Democratic co-chair — over the issue of abortion, creating a tense scene in the White House’s Blue Room, according to three sources familiar with the exchange.
“Trump leaned in close to Coons, who calls himself ‘a practicing Christian and a devout Presbyterian,’ and laced into the Democratic senator over controversial moves to change statewide policies on abortion that have roiled New York and Virginia politics in recent weeks. ‘He was in his face about it,’ said one person familiar with the exchange. The person described Trump as extremely ‘worked up.’” POLITICO
MORE SCHUMER 2020 RECRUITING — “O’Rourke meets with Schumer to discuss 2020 Senate bid,” by Nolan McCaskill: “Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer met with former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke last week to discuss a possible 2020 Senate campaign against GOP Sen. John Cornyn, according to a source familiar with the meeting. …
“O’Rourke and former Obama Cabinet secretary Julián Castro — who has announced his own White House bid — are considered by many Democrats to be the party’s best prospects for defeating Cornyn. A spokesman for O’Rourke did not return a request for comment on the meeting. Schumer’s office declined to comment.” POLITICO
THE NEW MAJORITY …
— MICHAEL STRATFORD: “House Democrats make first major move to tighten gun laws”: “House Democrats took their first steps as a new majority on Wednesday to tighten federal gun laws, underscoring their commitment to act on a top priority a day before the first anniversary of the deadly mass shooting at a Parkland, Fla., high school.
“The Judiciary Committee approved a bill that would expand federal background checks for firearm purchases. The legislation, which now heads to the House floor but stands virtually no chance in the Senate, makes good on Democrats’ promises to move swiftly to combat gun violence since taking control of the chamber this year.” POLITICO
— HEATHER CAYGLE and SARAH FERRIS: “Pelosi’s freshmen fracture amid GOP pressure”: “Speaker Nancy Pelosi has another rebellion in her ranks. And there’s no easy way to quash it. House Democrats have repeatedly faced surprise Republican floor attacks since taking control of the chamber, part of a bid by the GOP to target their most vulnerable members and fracture the party. Just six weeks in, the GOP effort has been an astonishing success — dividing Pelosi and her top deputies and pitting members of the freshmen class against each other.
“At issue is a wonky procedural tactic that Republicans have weaponized to split Democrats on a range of thorny issues, from sexual abuse to anti-terrorism funding. Roughly two dozen Democrats have so far bucked their party and sided with Republicans on the votes.
“As the GOP continues to peel off rank-and-file Democrats, party leaders have grown alarmed — and are increasingly engaged in finger-pointing about who is to blame for the disunity and what to do about it, according to interviews with nearly two dozen Democratic lawmakers and aides.” POLITICO
2020 WATCH — “Trump campaign zeroes in on 3 Democratic 2020 foes,” by Alex Isenstadt: “Donald Trump’s political advisers are homing in on three declared Democratic candidates who they believe are the most viable at this early stage of the campaign.
“The reelection campaign has begun compiling opposition research on Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker and is eyeing opportunities to attack them. The effort began over the weekend when the Trump campaign sent out a news release ahead of Warren’s launch criticizing her past claims of Native American heritage.
“Trump’s advisers are certain the list of announced Democratic candidates will grow exponentially before the first primary debate in June, and that their targets are certain to fluctuate over time. Yet the early assessment provides a window into how Trump world views the emerging Democratic field — a sprawling, largely undefined group that lacks a clear front-runner.” POLITICO
— STAFFING UP: “Gillibrand adds top national, New Hampshire staff to 2020 campaign,” by Elena Schneider: “The new additions to Gillibrand’s campaign are Semedrian Smith, national political director; Danielle Duffy, chief operating officer; Gavrie Kullman, digital finance director; Pat Devney, New Hampshire state director; and Shannon McLeod, New Hampshire political director.” POLITICO
THE INVESTIGATIONS …
— AP’S CHAD DAY: “Judge finds Manafort lied to investigators in Russia probe”: “The four-page ruling hurts Manafort’s chance of receiving a reduced sentence, though Jackson said she would decide the exact impact during his sentencing next month. It also resolves a dispute that had provided new insight into how Mueller views Manafort’s actions as part of the broader probe of Russian election interference and any possible coordination with Trump associates.
“Prosecutors have made clear that they remain deeply interested in Manafort’s interactions with a man the FBI says has ties to Russian intelligence. But it’s unclear exactly what has drawn their attention and whether it relates to election interference because much of the dispute has played out in secret court hearings and blacked out court filings.
“In her ruling Wednesday, Jackson provided few new details as she found there was sufficient evidence to say Manafort broke the terms of his plea agreement by lying about three of five matters that prosecutors had singled out. The ruling was largely a rejection of Manafort’s attorneys’ argument that he hadn’t intentionally misled investigators but rather forgot some details until his memory was refreshed.” AP
— CNN’S KARA SCANNELL and ERICA ORDEN: “Justice Department investigating leak of confidential Michael Cohen bank record”: “The Justice Department is investigating the leak last year of confidential reports about Michael Cohen’s personal bank records which led to revelations that the former Donald Trump lawyer was profiting by selling his access to the White House, two people familiar with the matter say. Prosecutors with the U.S. attorney’s office in the Northern District of California are leading the criminal investigation, one of the people said, and criminal charges in the case could be announced soon.” CNN
— CNN’S EVAN PEREZ and LAURA JARRETT: “Exclusive: William Barr gears up to take the reins on Mueller probe and pick a top deputy”: “The most pressing question Barr will face is how much information should be included in a report to Congress based on the findings from Mueller. … Barr has also begun discussions on a successor to Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who has overseen the Mueller probe for most of its existence. …
“Jeffrey Rosen, the deputy transportation secretary who was confirmed by the Senate in 2017, has emerged as the top contender for the job, multiple sources familiar with the discussions tell CNN. Rosen previously served as general counsel at the Transportation Department and in the Office of Management and Budget in the administration of President George W. Bush.” CNN
TRUMP’S THURSDAY — The president will participate in an anti-abortion conference call at 11:45 a.m. in the Oval Office. He will meet with Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen at 2:45 p.m. in the Oval Office.
ON THE BORDER — “Rep. Adam Kinzinger deployed to U.S.-Mexico border,” by Brent Griffiths: “Kinzinger was deployed to the U.S.-Mexico border earlier this week with his Air National Guard unit, his office announced on Wednesday evening. ‘The Congressman is humbled to serve his IL-16 community here in the People’s House and equally proud to serve as a reconnaissance pilot in the Air National Guard,’ Kinzinger’s communications director, Maura Gillespie, said in a statement.” POLITICO
HMM … “Trump’s DHS Guts Task Forces Protecting Elections From Foreign Meddling,” by The Daily Beast’s Erin Banco and Betsy Woodruff: “Two teams of federal officials assembled to fight foreign election interference are being dramatically downsized, according to three current and former Department of Homeland Security officials. And now, those sources say they fear the department won’t prepare adequately for election threats in 2020. ‘The clear assessment from the intelligence community is that 2020 is going to be the perfect storm,’ said a DHS official familiar with the teams.
“‘We know Russia is going to be engaged. Other state actors have seen the success of Russia and realize the value of disinformation operations. So it’s very curious why the task forces were demoted in the bureaucracy and the leadership has not committed resources to prepare for the 2020 election.’” The Daily Beast
K STREET FILES — “Zinke teaming up with Lewandowski at D.C. lobbying firm,” by Theo Meyer: “Ryan Zinke, who resigned as interior secretary last year amid scandal, is teaming up with Corey Lewandowski, President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager, to work as senior advisers at Washington lobbying firm Turnberry Solutions. … Lewandowski claimed [in late 2017] he had ‘nothing to do with Turnberry Solutions,’ but allowed Turnberry lobbyists to work out of the Capitol Hill rowhouse where he stayed when he was in Washington.” POLITICO
FOR YOUR RADAR — “FEMA Administrator Brock Long resigns,” by Matthew Choi: “Long, appointed by President Donald Trump, oversaw the administration during violent hurricane seasons that battered Florida, Puerto Rico and Texas and during some of the worst forest fires in California history. FEMA’s slow response to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico became a point of fierce criticism against Trump and his administration. Long also came under criticism for his personal use of official cars to commute between Washington and North Carolina.” POLITICO
— “Union demands apology after seeing Confederate book displayed in congressman’s office,” by CNN’s Ellie Kaufman: “The American Federation of Government Employees is asking Rep. Drew Ferguson for a formal, public apology after its members said they found the book ‘General Robert Edward Lee; Soldier, Citizen and Christian Patriot,’ which presents Confederate ideology. Union members said that the book — published in 1897 — was displayed open to a page reading, ‘The blacks are immeasurably better off here than in Africa, morally, socially, and physically.
“‘The painful discipline they are undergoing is necessary for their instruction as a race, and, I hope, will prepare and lead them to better things.’ In a statement provided to CNN Wednesday by his spokesman, Ferguson, the Republican chief deputy whip, said he was unaware the book was even in his office and that it has since been removed.” CNN
SPOTTED: Education Secretary Betsy DeVos in a wheelchair Wednesday at the Colony Hotel in Palm Beach, en route to a Heritage Foundation event.
SPOTTED at a reception and dinner at the Metropolitan Club on Wednesday night hosted by Concordia celebrating the visit of Colombian President Ivan Duque: Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, Labor Secretary Alex Acosta, Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), Will Hurd (R-Texas), Greg Pence (R-Ind.) and French Hill (R-Ark.), Matthew Swift …
… Luis Alberto Moreno, Bret and Amy Baier, Morgan Ortagus, Luis Almagro, Chris and Kathleen Matthews, Nick Logothetis, Jack Keane, Margaret Brennan, Carlos Holmes, Colombian Ambassador Francisco Santos, Josh Rogin, U.S. Ambassador to Colombia Kevin Whitaker, Sam Brownback, Connie Mack, Patrick Steel, Michael Crowley, Jane Harman, Jay Collins and Evelyn Farkas.
BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Sheldon Silver turned 75 … Matt Sheffield, a producer for The Hill TV (hat tip: sister Carrie) … Nick Baer
BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY:Martha Raddatz, ABC News’ chief global affairs correspondent and “This Week” co-anchor. What she’s been reading recently: “‘Virgin Galactic’s Rocket Man’ — The New Yorker. Nick Schmidle writes a very long but riveting article that is this generation’s ‘The Right Stuff’ about the pilots who are risking it all to make commercial space travel a reality. I am obsessed with space travel and the backstories of these astronauts.” Playbook Plus Q&A
BIRTHDAYS: Michael Bloomberg is 77 … Carl Bernstein is 75 … Stephen A. Schwarzman is 72 … Hugh Downs is 98 … Oscar Ramirez, new founder of Fulcrum Affairs, is 44. He’s celebrating by “spending the evening on a Pisco Sour tour of DC topped off with karaoke” (h/t Casa Valmirez) … Michio Aida of the WH office of digital strategies (h/t Ory Rinat) … Ed Patru, principal at Direct Communications Company and a DCI Group alum … NYT’s Alan Blinder … former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) is 72 … Karen Anderson, senior director for policy, communications and external affairs at the Becker Friedman Institute for Economics (hubby tip: Lyndon Boozer) … POLITICO’s Kat McKibben … Katie Childress … Andrew LaCasse is 33 … Jon Sawyer, executive director of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting … Dave Cuzzi … Sakina Jaffrey … John Buckley … Marty Markowitz is 74 … Steve Tisch is 7-0 … Fresh Air’s Terry Gross is 68 … Jacob Luneau … Ryan Blake, government affairs at the Consumer Bankers Association (h/t Cassie Blake) … Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is 52 …
… Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.) is 7-0 … Rep. Donna Shalala (D-Fla.) is 78 … Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) is 47 … Erik Potholm, a partner at SRCP Media, celebrating by skiing in Deer Valley, Utah (h/t wife Erica Potholm) … Paul Miller and Mitch Moonier of Miller/Wenhold Capitol Strategies (h/ts John Byrd) … Brooke Lierman (h/t Kyle) … Evan Kraus … Pete Solecki … Jeremy Robbins, executive director of the Partnership for a New American Economy, is 39 … Dan Walsh … Hannah VanHoose … Bobby Honold … HHS’ Caitlin Patenaude, who recently married Jon Vannoy — pic by Steph Sorenson … Brittany Candrian Richman … Cristina Marcos … Amanda Litman, co-founder and executive director of Run for Something … Rod Lamkey … Mark Elliot … Sharon Daniels … Matt Angle … Galen Main … Carlos Sanchez … Colin Van Ostern … Jenny Nielsen … Daniel Stublen … John Vockley … Neal Mann … William Beach … Griff Hathaway … Lindsay Jackson … Mike Inganamort … Brianne Carter … Sheila Riggs … Kate Sullivan … Jen Pihlaja (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
Daily Trends Hunter 