Nats’ $140M Patrick Corbin Deal Forms Super-Rotation for Post-Harper Era Surge

The Washington Nationals have opened one door for a new ace. Simultaneously, they’ve likely closed another on a franchise icon.

Their new starting pitcher is Patrick Corbin, formerly of the Arizona Diamondbacks. According to Jon Heyman of Fancred, the left-hander is joining the Nationals on a six-year contract worth $140 million.

The complete price for the 29-year-old goes beyond that. This is a team that paid the luxury tax in 2018 signing a player who declined a $17.9 million qualifying offer. The Nats must therefore forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2019 draft, plus $1 million in international bonus money.

The Nationals can justify all this because they still want to win now despite getting an 82-80 reality check in 2018. They’re not wrong to think that a pitcher fresh off a 3.15 ERA and 246 strikeouts in 200 innings can help them do so.

And yet, there’s an elephant the size of the theoretical Twinkie from Ghostbusters in the room: What of Bryce Harper?

In all probability, his days as a National are over.

It feels weird to say that, given all that Harper and the Nats have been through.

He was the organization’s No. 1 pick in 2010. He was the National League Rookie of the Year by 2012, and MVP by 2015. He was an All-Star for the sixth time this past season, in which he ran his career OPS to .900 and his career home run count to 184. Amid all this, the Nats went to the postseason four times.

And yet, it does feel like Harper left unfinished business behind when he became a free agent last month.

Though he helped lead the Nationals to four postseason appearances, the franchise is still sitting on zero playoff series victories. The man himself left behind a frustrating disparity between his superstar reputation and his superstar reality. To wit, he was worth less than two wins above replacement for the third time in 2018, per Baseball Reference.

Per Heyman, it’s still possible that Harper will return to finish this unfinished business:

If the Nats find a way to bring Harper back, they’ll have pulled off the perfect offseason and positioned themselves as perhaps the team to beat in the National League, if not all of Major League Baseball.

It’s a longshot, however.

The Nats could try and sign Harper to a backloaded contract in which the big money wouldn’t kick in until after Corbin, Max Scherzer and/or Stephen Strasburg are cleared from their books. But that wouldn’t matter for the luxury tax, which only considers average annual value.

To this end, Roster Resource has the Nationals projected about $10 million below the $206 million threshold for 2019. Even if the Nats got Harper to agree as something as “low” as $30 million per year, they’d still be flirting with more severe penalties that come from going over $226 million.

That’s one reason to believe Harper is as good as gone. Then there’s the other: the Nationals are already past the point of needing him back.

While most teams around MLB have been taking it easy so far this winter, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post points out that the Nats have been busy bees:

Yes, Corbin does come with bust potential. But he’ll enjoy two benefits in Washington that made a difference for him in Arizona. The Nationals are set to return most members of a defense that ranked eighth in efficiency in 2018. And he’ll mainly be throwing to Yan Gomes, who was one of baseball’s top framing catchers.

Meanwhile, Corbin comes with an extreme ability to miss bats that fits perfectly at the top of Washington’s rotation. In him, Scherzer and Strasburg, the Nats now have three of the NL’s 12 best contact avoiders from 2018, including both of the top two:

Though things could be better at the back end, the front three alone makes Washington’s rotation one of the very best in the Senior Circuit.

The Nationals should also have a better bullpen in 2019. When healthy, Sean Doolittle is an under-the-radar contender as the best relief pitcher in MLB. He’s now joined by Kyle Barraclough and Trevor Rosenthal. The former has an 11.5 career K/9. The latter had a 12.0 K/9 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2017. He should be fully recovered from that come Opening Day.

The big question is whether the Nats will hit as well without Harper. But there’s still Anthony Rendon, who’s typically good for a .900 OPS. They also have Juan Soto, who put up a .923 OPS as a 19-year-old in 2018. There’s also Adam Eaton, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmerman, each of whom is a productive offensive presence when healthy.

Lastly, there’s Victor Robles. Though he hasn’t yet proven equal to the task of filling Harper’s shoes, he’s MLB.com’s No. 4 prospect for a reason. He’s a 21-year-old with power, speed and a feel for hitting. He could be Washington’s very own Ronald Acuna Jr.

It’ll be even easier to fawn over the Nats have on paper if they find a way to bring back Harper. But according to FanGraphs’ early projections, what they have on paper right now is good enough to make them the favorites in the 2019 NL East race.

That picture will change as the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets check items off their hot stove shopping lists. But in any event, the Nationals are already ready for life after Harper.

That may not make it any less jarring to realize that Harper likely played his last game for the Nationals on Sept. 30. But better this than the Nats being left to scrounge for scraps after losing him unexpectedly.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.