Dems gain governors but GOP keeps big states ahead of redistricting battles

Democrats flipped governorships in seven states Tuesday, installing governors poised to play key roles in the next redistricting process in 2021 and 2022 — but Republicans held onto several major states, giving no party a clear leg up two years ahead of the census.

Haunted by their losses at the state level in 2010 and the years after, Democrats made redistricting a key organizing principle of the midterm elections, using the specter of political mapmaking to draw attention to state-level races and launching a new group, the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, to direct money to key races. Democratic wins in Kansas and Wisconsin broke up Republican “trifectas” — control of both state legislative houses and the governorship — in those states, while gains in Illinois, Maine, Nevada, and New Mexico gave Democrats full control over state government there.

Story Continued Below

Colorado and Michigan also passed ballot measures, supported by the NDRC, that transferred redistricting power from legislators and governors to independent commissions. (Democrats also elected new governors in both states, ending unified GOP control over Michigan’s state government.) Another measure to establish a redistricting commission in Utah is too close to call.

But Democratic gubernatorial candidates fell short in Ohio and Florida, and Democrat Stacey Abrams currently trails in Georgia, where her campaign believes late-counted ballots could lead to a December runoff. The Republican Party has trifectas in all three of those states. And reelection wins by Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan ensured that Republicans will have a seat at the table in those Democratic-dominated states during the next redistricting process.

Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf’s reelection preserved Democrats’ hold on at least one lever of power in his state, where Republicans control the state legislature, while Minnesota Gov.-elect Tim Walz’s win also kept Democrats in power in a fast-changing state. Republicans flipped two Democratic-held congressional districts at opposite ends of Minnesota in the midterms, while Democrats flipped two Republican-held seats in the Minneapolis suburbs.

Republican governors elected throughout the South ensure that the GOP will continue to have a strong hand in district mapmaking there.

Former attorney general Eric Holder launched the NDRC in early 2017, pledging to make state races a priority for the party.

“Fixing this redistricting problem will involve not just focusing on the lines, but focusing on the larger effort to win back governance,” Holder said at the time. “This is the path to ensuring Democrats have their rightful seats at the table in 2021.”

Republicans also launched a redistricting group of their own, the National Republican Redistricting Trust, though that group has stayed more focused on data-gathering and litigation, leaving state-level politicking to existing Republican organizations.