GOP turns to Trump to rescue Tennessee Senate seat

Elections

Republicans are counting on the president to help stave off a massive upset.

Donald Trump lands in East Tennessee tonight to headline a rally and fundraise for Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn, but the mission is actually broader than that: how to prevent the massive upset brewing in the state’s open Senate race.

Just two years ago, Trump trounced Hillary Clinton in Tennessee, winning by 26 points. Today, Republicans are working to stave off what would be a disastrous defeat in the battle for the Senate seat left vacant by GOP Sen. Bob Corker’s retirement — a loss that could threaten the GOP’s razor thin majority. They’re counting on the president to help drag Blackburn over the finish line.

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Yet Blackburn and state Republicans are leaning so hard on Trump that the pivotal Senate race might come down to a single question: how much is too much Trump?

“I think it’s a vulnerable race in a very Republican state,” said longtime Tennessee Republican strategist Tom Ingram. “I think Trump is still popular here. But this is a statewide race, not a district race. The dynamics change a lot between a polarized district and a broader-based state.”

Monday’s events mark the president’s second visit to the state since the spring. That’s on top of the images from a Trump rally that appear in her TV ads, her repeatedly touting the president’s endorsement and, in a recent 30-second spot, using Trump’s own words to blast Democratic opponent Phil Bredesen.

Republicans predict tonight’s rally will motivate a sluggish base that will be essential to a Blackburn win this fall. Republican Party Chairman Scott Golden said he expects supporters tonight will line up for blocks to catch a glimpse of Trump in Johnson City. The event is in Washington County, in the heart of Trump territory, where the president cleaned up in 2016, winning nearly 70 percent of the vote.

“When you have a president that goes to that length in order to see people, that just absolutely gets our folks very fired up and enthused about what we need to do for the election,” Golden said. “For him to be here, to personally come and talk to the people — 7, 8, 9,000 whatever it ends up being — in an arena setting, is electric.”

Trump’s visit couldn’t come at a better time for the GOP. Blackburn has fallen behind in recent polls. She’s up against a wealthy two-term ex-governor with statewide name recognition, who’s also popular among the women voters who are uncomfortable with Trump.

For months, the president himself has monitored Blackburn’s polling in the race, according to three White House aides and allies. Trump has personally called her to check in and offer his encouragement, tweeted supportive messages on her behalf and hosted a Nashville rally in the spring. The president, the sources said, was behind deploying Vice President Mike Pence to Knoxville last month, where he headlined a $1,000-a-person Blackburn fundraiser.

Ad spending data shows that six Republican-aligned groups have booked air time for the Tennessee Senate race through November, having spent nearly twice as much on reservations in the final weeks as Democrats.

America First, the major Trump-aligned Super PAC, is watching the Tennessee race closely and contemplating whether it needs to assist. Another super PAC, the Committee to Defend the President, has run polling and predictive modeling that shows Blackburn is better positioned, based on a partisan breakdown of who is going to vote, a source with the group told POLITICO.

But that’s dependent on Republicans getting their electorate to the polls.

The catastrophic scenario of having the Tennessee Senate seat fall into Democrats’ hands for the first time in nearly three decades is not lost on Republicans — from Trump on down. A win in Tennessee would give Democrats breathing room: even if one of their own endangered Senate incumbents loses in November, they’d still have a chance at winning the Senate.

That’s why both sides have paid close attention to voter turnout efforts. Garren Shipley, a Republican National Committee spokesman said since 2012, the party’s has heavily invested in data.

“For Tennessee, that means campaigns armed with the most up to date information possible,” Shipley said. “This is the most hard-nosed, impressive ground game Tennessee has seen since the days of General Neyland.”

Mary Mancini, Tennessee Democratic Party Chair, pointed to August primary results as evidence momentum is with Democrats.

Mancini said the primary showed “an increase in turnout all across the board,” for Democrats. “We flooded the field with county commission candidates, statehouse and senate candidates. People were just excited to come out and vote for a Democrat,” she said, noting that recruiting more Democrats to compete in local races is key to motivating the party across the state.

Out of 118 statehouse and state senate races, for example, Democrats have candidates in 104 of them. “That’s the most we’ve had in 20 years,” she said.

Democrats contend the GOP’s heavy reliance on the Trump brand is a miscalculation. Republicans are betting all their resources on their base, they say, while Democrats are busy expanding theirs with a candidate who appeals to independents and crossover Republicans.

Bredesen touts a “A” rating with the NRA and recently opened up a debate by announcing he wouldn’t support Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

In one of Bredesen’s ads, he stares into the camera vowing he’ll stand with Trump when it’s appropriate. But, citing tariffs that he says has hurt manufacturing companies in the states, he makes clear he’ll step away from Trump when necessary and vote “with Tennessee” when necessary.

“He’s the candidate that fits Tennessee the best,” Chris Hayden of the left-leaning Majority Forward said of Bredesen. “He’s shown he has an independent streak and he’s going to stand up for Tennessee first.”

Majority Forward, a nonprofit group affiliated with Senate Majority PAC, is administering $24 million in voter mobilization efforts in key Senate races, primarily focused on Tennessee, Arizona, Missouri and Indiana.

Ingram warns that Tennessee Republicans can’t count on Trump’s popularity being transferable to Blackburn, pointing out that those who tried emulating Trump by going far to the right failed to connect with voters, pointing to the state’s GOP gubernatorial primary, where, he said, the two Republican candidates who were the most conservative and mostly aligned with the president came in second and third place.

“There’s only one Trump. And Trump voters are Trump voters. It’s a mistake to consider that they’re all ultra-conservative voters. They’re angry, frustrated, felt-left-out voters. Some of them are very conservative, some aren’t. They’re all over the board in Tennessee,” Ingram said. “I think putting all of your eggs in the Trump basket in Tennessee is a little risky.”