Image: NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images

Hashem locked the doors, drew the shutters, and hid in his house with his family. He feared being spotted by fighters from the former al-Qaeda-linked group, Hay’et Tahrir al–Sham (HTS).

“They came in and started shooting everywhere,” said Hashem, a father of two in al-Atareb in Western Aleppo. “We are very, very afraid. They will kill us all.”

HTS took over Hashem’s town on Sunday as it continued its expansion campaign from Idlib – which it already dominates – into surrounding areas held by Turkey-backed groups of the National Liberation Front (NLF).

Over the past seven days, HTS captured several villages and at least one other town, Darat Izza.

The group’s aim is to acquire more territory so it has a stronger hand to play as Russia and Turkey prepare a final political agreement over Syria’s last rebel-held enclave, which sprawls across Idlib, parts of Aleppo, and a sliver of neighbouring Hama provinces.

Whatever settlement is reached will almost certainly demand the containment and elimination of the armed group.

Accused of crimes

According to the Sochi agreement, signed by Russia, Turkey and Iran last September, Ankara is already supposed to have started reining in the group. Instead, undeterred, HTS is making inroads into strategic areas such as Atareb.

The town is near Syria’s main northwest highways, M4 and M5, which connect major cities within Syria and the country itself to her neighbour Turkey. Whoever controls these highways is likely to have a say in any end-game.

HTS has succeeded in becoming militarily the most powerful group in the enclave. However, it is opposed not only by all external forces with an interest in Syria but also by many ordinary residents.

It has been accused of executing members of moderate rebel groups, kidnapping civilians to extort money, and shutting down educational institutes, among other crimes.

Despite the lack of public support, HTS has managed to keep hold of large swathes of territory and exercised military superiority over the NLF, which has never been as coherent, organised – and fanatic – as HTS, as its component groups bicker over ideology and strategy.

60,000 lives at risk

The two local factions, Thawar al-Sham and Bayraq al-Islam, which ran Atareb alongside the larger Harakat Noureddin al-Zinki group, were routed out by HTS with ease and bussed to Afreen to the north.

Joshua Landis, director of the Centre for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, said the al-Qaeda-affiliated militia was stronger and better led, while Turkey-sponsored groups just “collapsed” and “fled in front of HTS’s fighters”.

“HTS’s conquest of Atareb and Darat Izza dashes any notion that the National Liberation Front that was cobbled together by Turkey to act as a new Syrian national army is actually a cohesive or effective fighting force,” Landis said.

The humiliating exit of rebel groups with which Hashem sympathised has placed the lives of 60,000 people in the town at risk, he said. Hashem is worried about HTS’s ruthlessness as well as about the excuse their presence offers the Syrian government and the Russians to launch what many residents have long believed  to be an impending attack.

Hashem said the Assad government would not stand by as HTS expanded and would act to eliminate it. But bombing HTS’s fighters would also kill innocent civilians, he added.

“Now Russia and the regime can attack us because we are terrorists – but we are not terrorists,” he said.

He added those who did not die in the offensive would be labelled traitors by the government and “either be killed or jailed”, he said.

‘Turkey will have to negotiate directly with HTS’

After Darat Izza fell to HTS, the town was bombed by Russian jets, according to residents, leaving three dead and nine injured in the first raids since the signing of the Sochi deal to keep the peace in wider Idlib.

Landis said this was the rationale Assad would use were he to violate the Sochi agreement.

“The Syrian authorities have argued that Turkey has not kept its side of the Idlib agreement,” he said.

“Turkey had been promising both Russia and the West that its proxies could take care of HTS, but they cannot. Turkey will have to negotiate directly with HTS or face the growing possibility of a Syrian invasion of Idlib province.”

Even Hashem is unable to understand why Turkey turned a deaf ear to the request of the local factions to send help.

“Our leaders reached out to Turkey, but they did not help,” he  said.

HTS timed its rampage well. In December, Turkey repeatedly planned and then called off an attack in Syria’s northeast against the YPG, the Kurdish armed group it regards as a mortal enemy.

It has been left twisting and turning in response to a changing American policy towards the Syrian Kurdish fighters, who are tied to the PKK, the Turkey-based guerrilla organisation.

US President Donald Trump has promised to withdraw support as he seeks to withdraw American troops, but other US officials have given conflicting signals.

What will Turkey do? 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may be more focused on his “Kurdish problem” than the intractable problem of dealing with HTS. Some analysts go so far as to suggest he did not want the NLF, whose brigades he is using to confront the Kurds, to lose men and concentration fighting HTS.

Others speculate Turkey and Russia may have reached an understanding that territories taken by HTS can be attacked and occupied by the Syrian army, in return for Russia allowing Turkey to do what it wants against the Kurds.

Aron Lund, a fellow with The Century Foundation, said Turkey might simply not be that concerned about armed group turf wars at this stage. He suggested Turkey also thought it could soften HTS’ ideology to make it an acceptable partner – an easier option than taking it on militarily.

“I’m not sure how or if Turkey will respond to this, or if they’re actually that concerned,” he said. “Tahrir al-Sham is already in charge of most of the area, and Turkey seems to be working to soften them up and make them less problematic – rather than trying to overturn the entire situation.”

Although the impact of the recent developments on the Sochi agreement is as yet uncertain, Lund said the outcome would depend on the “big-picture dynamics” of the Moscow-Ankara relationship.

“Tahrir al-Sham’s expansion could trigger brutal fighting with the Syrian government, Russian bombings, some changes of territory, and lots of heated rhetoric and summitry,” he said. “But that wouldn’t necessarily kill the basic idea of the Sochi-Astana concept.”

Hashem, scared to venture out in streets full of HTS fighters, said he doesn’t understand the larger strategic calculations behind Turkey’s failure to help the rebels, or why armed groups are being deployed to fight the Kurds when people like him are under threat from HTS.

He said all he wants is to keep his family safe.

“Over the last eight years, I lost my education and our dreams and everything,” he said. “I know we started by asking for freedom, but all we want now is to stay alive.”

Image: Stephanie Keith/Getty Images

It is difficult to tell who is more peeved at National Security Adviser John Bolton right now: his boss President Donald Trump or Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

In seeking to reassure Israel this weekend about the withdrawal of US troops from Syria, Bolton added some nuances that first prompted Trump to tweet nothing had changed and then drew outrage from Erdogan, who skipped the reassuring meeting Bolton was supposed to have with him.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo must surely be relishing the prospect of his own damage-limitation tour of the Middle East, which just got under way.

Meanwhile, in the somewhat gentler environs of Texas, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas just published the latest edition of its quarterly energy survey and quoted one anonymous oil executive saying this:

“The administration’s head fake with the Saudis regarding Iran sanctions, followed by leverage on Saudi Arabia with the Khashoggi murder, have compromised oil price market dynamics. The volatility in commodity and capital markets is unsettling, along with the challenge to the administration’s ongoing leadership posed by the Democratic majority in the House. The administration is our largest uncertainty in our business at this point, as they want low oil prices and will do everything in their power to deliver low oil prices.”

All these things are not unrelated.

Trump’s desire to pull troops out of Syria shouldn’t be a shock. Antipathy to America’s foreign entanglements has been one of the more consistent positions for this president and fits with a broader shift in the global order that predates Trump and will likely outlast him.

What did come as a shock was the way Trump sprung his decision last month, followed quickly by the resignations of defence secretary James Mattis and Brett McGurk, the US envoy overseeing efforts to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL, ISIS). The dissonance over what exactly is happening, how and when has only grown since.

Whether or not you regard this as 10-dimensional chess or mere disarray, we can surely agree it comes across as somewhat mercurial and creates one of those margins where misunderstanding can flourish.

Scapegoating the White House?

The “head fake” over Iranian sanctions lamented by that oil executive is a good example of this in action.

The widespread assumption that Washington would tighten the screws on Iran immediately in the fall stoked an oil rally even as Saudi Arabia boosted output to offset any concerns about supply. Trump’s granting of waivers to several countries importing Iranian oil (with an eye on gasoline ahead of midterms) undercut that, coinciding with an accelerating slide in prices. Little wonder another anonymous oil boss told the Dallas Fed: “The biggest distraction to conducting business is the uncertainty provided by the erratic and dysfunctional behaviour of the current presidential administration.”

Are they scapegoating the White House to some degree? Undoubtedly. Signs of weak demand and swaps dealers scrambling to reduce risk on hedging books were also at play in the oil sell-off. Moreover, in the same Dallas Fed survey, almost half the respondents said their primary goal in 2019 was to grow production. Just seven percent prioritised returning capital to shareholders. Given the industry’s broken relationship with investors, this is the opposite of getting with the programme.

Still, the extra layer of risk emanating from Washington DC is real enough, and that’s actually a novel thing. A few years ago, oil bosses griped about this or that federal regulation. Now, they fret about geopolitical curve balls and direct interventions in the oil market – something traditionally associated with the likes of OPEC members, not the US.

If it’s a novel feeling in Houston’s c-suites, imagine how it plays in the palaces and ministries of the Middle East. A region where virtually every state has come to either rely on US support (or regard it as a reliable adversary) must now adjust to not merely a more transactional Washington, but also one with conflicting voices and a changing set of faces. In short, the risk of local governments and the US talking past each other has ratcheted up in a region where the room for misunderstanding is vanishingly small. 

Saudi Arabia’s aggressive posture

It is useful that the anonymous E&P executive specifically cited the Khashoggi affair because it gets at what may be the biggest, and most unexpected, risk to emerge. The backlash against the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi clearly caught Saudi Arabia and its de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) , off-guard. In several respects – public opinion, Congress’ freedom to take a different line than the White House – that had nothing to do with Trump per se.

But in light of the administration’s close embrace of MBS and the great lengths to which Trump went in downplaying the incident, it is legitimate to ask just how enabled the prince feels in conducting policy. That’s especially so as Saudi Arabia’s foreign posture has become notably more aggressive, in parallel with its power structure transforming away from one of consensus among the ruling family toward a more autocratic model.

The added wrinkle is Trump’s own domestic headaches, as exemplified by the current face-off with a Democratic-controlled House over his wall idea. These pressures are likely to exacerbate Trump’s penchant for dramatic moves and populist crusades, with foreign policy and gasoline prices likely to figure large (not least because they mostly lie beyond the reach of Congress).

As with last year’s waivers for Iranian sanctions, the interplay of domestic US politics, oil markets and the administration’s mixed messaging could make for many a miscalculation. Consider what might happen if, like Erdogan today, MBS made plans for a bold move assuming US backing that turned out to be less forthright than anticipated.

The relationship between Washington and Riyadh may look more solid than it has in a long time. That could be its biggest problem.

This analysis was originally published by Bloomberg News

Gaza City – Surviving members of the al-Samouni family gathered in Gaza City, commemorating the 10th anniversary since the horrors of Israel’s 2008-2009 offensive ruptured their lives forever.

On the morning of January 4, 2009, 16 members of Talal Hilmi al-Samouni’s family evacuated to the first floor of their home in the al-Zaytoun neighbourhood, south of Gaza City, after an Israeli missile struck the third floor.

According to Palestinian rights group al-Haq, the shelling intensified resulting in three other Samouni families – Ibrahim al-Samouni (12 members), Rashad al-Samouni (11 members), and Nafiz al-Samouni (10 members) – to seek refuge in Talal’s home.

Later the same day, Israeli forces approached Talal’s house and ordered the congregated families to move to another home, that of Wael al-Samouni (11 members). The men were ordered to lift up their shirts on their way out.

The result was 60 people under one roof without access to water or electricity, which had been cut off since the start of the offensive, named Operation Cast Lead, on December 27. Dozens of Israeli soldiers and tanks also surrounded Wael’s house.

The following day, January 5, after a lull in fighting, one of the Samounis decided to venture outside of the house to collect water. He was shocked to find they were still encircled by soldiers and tanks and dashed back inside.

“Five minutes later, the tanks shelled a missile into the house and injured seven people,” al-Haq recounted. “Only three minutes later the Israelis aimed another missile close by, which killed many al-Samouni family members – predominantly children and women.”

Some 22 family members, many of them wounded, left the house raising white banners and carrying four bodies.

The Israeli army opened fire. But they continued to walk until an ambulance rescued them. Israel had prevented medics and ambulances from accessing the site.

The most harrowing detail of the massacre, however, was when the Red Cross was finally permitted to enter the house, three days later. They found 13 injured family members, including eight children, who spent days without food or water, surrounded by the bodies of their parents and relatives.

In total, 48 members of the Samouni family were massacred by Israel forces, including 10 children and seven women.

Three years later, an Israeli military investigation concluded the army did not commit any crimes and was not responsible for the al-Samouni family deaths.

‘Never forget’

Zainab al-Samouni was 12 when the killings occurred.

“It was my first time seeing Israeli soldiers,” she said. “I felt terrified. They were tall with their faces masked with black paint and heavily armed.”

“The passage of time can’t heal my open injury. My parents bled to death. Many of my injured relatives died after the Israelis prevented their evacuation to hospital. 

“I will never forget. I lost my father and my mother, two brothers, along with cousins and uncles who were killed.

“The weather that day was very cold, and there was no food to feed children or blankets,” Zainab recalled. “On January 5, the home where we had gathered was bombed with more than six missiles. I couldn’t see anything from the dust and fumes. I only could see blood all around me.”

She said her 17-year-old brother went missing.

“After the war ended, we found him buried under the rubble of our home, which was razed by Israeli bulldozers. He was tortured, his hands handcuffed behind his back and executed from point blank range,” she said.

Zainab’s youngest sibling was her two-year-old sister.

“I was young but I took care of her. I was a child raising up a child,” she said.

“At every sad or joyful moment, I remember my parents. On my engagement day, on my wedding day, on the days of delivering my children, I yearn to feel my mother’s hand helping me and holding my children.”

Zainab is now 22-years old. She is currently a university student, married and mother of three. She wakes up at dawn every January 5 and prefers to spend the day alone in her room, recalling the traumatic events.

“I hate December, I hate January,” she said. “I hate everything reminding me of these days.”

‘Hard to overcome’

Mona al-Samouni, Zainab’s cousin, was 10-years old during the Cast Lead Operation. She is now married and is a mother of a five-month-old daughter.

“I lost my parents in the war, along with two nieces and other relatives who got bombed in one room. I was very close to my parents as I’m the youngest child,” she said.

“After their death, I felt the world closed in front of me. I couldn’t enjoy anything afterwards,” Mona told Al Jazeera.

“On every occasion, I miss my mom and dad. Every Eid, I woke up crying imagining that they may come back and spend some time with me,” Mona recalled, tears falling down her face.

“I saw my mother’s head bleeding and my father was lying on the ground in his blood. The smoke was thick. I was screaming and crying with horror. My cousin tried to pull me out to run away, but I was crying, ‘I want my mom, I want my dad.’”

Mona, her brothers and other relatives walked barefoot, their clothes torn and stained with blood of their family members, until they arrived in Gaza City.

After Israeli military’s withdrawal at the end of the war, Mona’s family went to see what happened.

“My uncle didn’t allow me to come with him. I saw the photos on TV. The hardest moment was when I saw them removing my father’s body from the rubble. Israeli bulldozers had deliberately destroyed the home over the bodies.”

“It was hard to overcome. We took a long time to engage in normal life. Our area was full of green lands and farms. It was like a heaven, but after war it turned into a ghost town,” she added.

“The absence of my father and mother made any joy or any success in my life incomplete,” Mona said, holding her baby.

“I hate the very name of war. I wish my daughter and other children will live a safe life. Enough of wars.”

Zenaat al-Samouni, 44, is a mother of eight whose husband was executed by Israeli forces and watched her five-year-old son bleed to death.

“We were about 20 members gathering in one room on January 4. Suddenly Israeli soldiers broke into our home. My husband, Attia al-Samouni, went out to talk to them. They killed him with a barrage of bullets in front of our eyes.”

Zenaat’s daughter, Amal, who was nine years at the time recounted the moment of her father’s killing.

“I was terribly shocked. I started to scream. My father was drenched in his blood. Then Israeli soldiers randomly shot on us in the room.”

Six members of the family in the room were injured by Israeli gunfire, including Zenaat’s five-year-old son Ahmad with two rounds to his chest and one in the head.

“I was screaming out loud. My husband was killed and I was losing my little boy who was bleeding in my own hands. Israeli soldiers didn’t allow us to move or to get out.”

Hours later, Zenaat and her children managed to go to the nearby home of a relative, where she tried to save her injured son Ahmad.”He was asking for water. I tried to stop his blood flowing out of his injuries. We tried to call ambulances, but all of them could not reach the area.

“The next day at dawn my son Ahmad succumbed to his wounds,” she said, bursting into tears. “He died in my hands.”

Amal was in her uncle Wael’s house with 59 other family members and could not leave after Israel fired missiles at the building, which was reduced to rubble over the heads of the al-Samounis trapped inside.

“I was wounded by shrapnel in my head and buried under the rubble. I was lying between injured and the blood of my deceased relatives,” Amal said.

After four days, the ambulance personnel managed to come to the area and evacuated Amal.

“I woke up in the hospital, but I was blind as a result of the shrapnel. After a week of treatment, my sight returned,” she said.

“Until now, I feel traumatised remembering the murder of my father and my brother and the four days I spent under rubble. We overcame, but never forgot.”

Image: bridget bennett / mashable