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Zion WilliamsonStreeter Lecka/Getty Images

That screeching sound you hear is the sound of chalk interrupting your daydreams of an upset-filled opening 48 hours at the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

Sure, there were a few, thanks to Liberty and UC Irvine and a couple of others, but major shockers were relatively lacking, at least for the most dramatic tournament this side of the football pitch.

But the favorites, in several cases, did more than just win. They thundered through the field like runaway rhinos. And that’s fun too.

As the weekend opens, where do we stand? We’re here to rank every team in the round of 32, with the final five standing out as the field’s true title contenders.

Regular-season standings and statistics are not unimportant, but we’re giving heavy emphasis to how the teams looked in their first game of the dance because, you know, that’s more important at this point.

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Skylar MaysMike Ehrmann/Getty Images

32. Liberty Flames

They went wild in Lynchburg, Virginia, when No. 12 Liberty upended No. 5 Mississippi State, 80-76.

It was a great showing behind a 12-for-25 (48 percent) effort from deep. Given that the Flames average 36.8 percent from three on the season, it seems unlikely they’ll get that kind of help again. It was nice while it lasted.

31. UC Irvine Anteaters

No. 13 UC Irvine gratified the bracketology hipsters when the trendy upset pick delivered with a 70-64 over No. 4 Kansas State.

A 12-0 second-half run keyed the Anteaters past the Wildcats, then they admirably closed things out down the stretch at the free throw line, where they went 17-19 for the contest.

But let’s not get too excited. This is not an offensive juggernaut, with only two players averaging in double figures and the top scorer, guard Max Hazzard, notching only 12.5 points per contest. UC Irvine’s 72.9 points per game as a team ranks just 161st nationally, per NCAA stats. That doesn’t suggest a deep run.

30. Ohio State

No matter what happens from here, No. 11 Ohio State will certainly exit the tournament with a lot more notoriety than when it entered.

With about as little fanfare as a major Ohio State sports team can muster, the Buckeyes toppled No. 6 Iowa State 62-59. The hero for OSU was Kaleb Wesson, who notched 21 points and 12 rebounds.

It was a good thing the Buckeyes could get this done with only 62 points. Only UC Irvine, Washington and Oregon sit below them in KenPom’s offensive rankings.

29. Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa pulled a mild upset when it pushed over No. 7 Cincinnati, 79-72. Playing in front of a friendly crowd, the Bearcats were cruising early, but the Hawkeyes took over late thanks to some seriously hot shooting from deep (11-for-22).

A team that shot 36.1 percent from three as a whole during the season, Iowa probably won’t be able to rely on that again—ditto a non-presence from a team star like the Bearcats’ Jarron Cumberland, who went 2-for-7 from the field in the first half.

28. Florida Gators

Part of this ranking is not so much what the No. 10 Gators did in their 70-61 upset as what No. 7 Nevada didn’t do.

At times the Gators looked like they would run away with it—just a turn of phrase here, given their plodding pace on both sides of the ball. But they let their guard down in the second half and allowed Nevada back in.

It fell short, but arguably not because of anything the Gators did. The Wolf Pack, who ranked as high as No. 5 in the Associated Press poll this season, finished with 20.8 percent shooting from three and didn’t convert a field goal in the final 4:03.

27. LSU Tigers

The No. 3 Tigers survived an unexpected struggle with No. 14 Yale, “clawing” past, if you will, 79-74. But they didn’t win many style points.

Plenty of observers counted them out after head coach Will Wade’s indefinite suspension, and the Tigers almost obliged them. Behind guard Skylar Mays, who scored 12 of his 19 points in the second half, the Tigers held fast. Against Maryland in the second round, they’ll need to do better than shoot 23.5 percent from three.

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Jalen SmithSam Greenwood/Getty Images

26. Maryland Terrapins

What’s this? LSU can take heart because its next opponent, No. 6 Maryland, didn’t fare much better. The Terps hung tough to take down an upstart No. 11 Belmont squad, but the 79-77 win wasn’t convincing.

Jalen Smith’s backboard-endangering dunk in the final minutes covered a multitude of sins, including a nervous start and an absolute egg from top guard Anthony Cowan Jr., who only managed nine points on 3-of-18 shooting.

25. UCF Knights

The University of Central Florida has been excellent all season, finishing third in the American Conference behind fellow tourney teams Houston and Cincinnati.

UCF has a star on and off the court in 7’6″ center Tacko Fall, and he shone Friday in a 73-58 win for the No. 9 Knights win over No. 8 VCU. The big guy blocked five shots to go with 13 points and 18 rebounds, which shows you he’s no novelty.

The Knights shot the ball well at 49 percent from the floor, but this is a post-oriented team that can struggle to shoot the ball or to guard shooters themselves. And they’re in real trouble against a transition team; they’re 312th in the nation in KenPom’s adjusted tempo rankings.

24. Minnesota Golden Gophers

Minnesota is not a three-point-shooting team, converting just 32.5 percent of its chances this season. It wasn’t surprising that Louisville gave the Gophers open looks, but surprisingly, the Gophers made 11 of them on 27 attempts (40.7 percent).

There, more or less, is your margin of victory in the No. 10 Gophers’ 86-76 defeat of No. 7 Louisville. Here’s guessing that phenomenon doesn’t repeat itself Saturday against No. 2 Michigan State.

23. Oregon Ducks

Another hot upset pick, No. 12 Oregon cashed out when it downed No. 5 Wisconsin, 72-54.

The Ducks were resurgent at season’s end and carried that momentum into the tournament behind guard Payton Pritchard and big man Kenny Wooten.

Wisconsin is a bit thin outside do-it-all big man Ethan Happ, and that showed when all non-Happ Badgers combined for a pitiful 42 points. 

22. Florida State Seminoles

This was a buzzsaw game. No. 13 Vermont came out like a house on fire. The Catamounts weren’t known as three-point specialists, but they sure looked that way against the ‘Noles, hitting 16 of 32 three-point attempts.

But FSU regrouped and pushed around the undersized Catamounts. The Seminoles outrebounded Vermont 39-33 with a 12-7 edge on the offensive glass.

Still, FSU, for all its height and depth, is not an offensive machine. If it can’t overpower a team inside, or if it needs to shoot threes to get back in the hunt, its 33.4 percent beyond-the-arc clip won’t bail it out. And only two players—forward Mfiondu Kabengele and guard Terance Mann—average double-digit scoring.

21. Wofford Terriers

Wofford had its moment Friday. Behind Fletcher Magee, who had a bit of a decent game with 24 points and a new NCAA record for made threes, the No. 7 Terriers captured national attention in an 84-68 defeat of No. 10 Seton Hall.

It’s a bit of a gaudy final score, but it was close for much of the contest. They are a talented team but don’t appear to have the athleticism to compete with No. 2 Kentucky on Saturday. 

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Carsen EdwardsJessica Hill/Associated Press

20. Baylor Bears

The No. 9 Bears pulled the mildest of upsets when they sliced through and over the zone of No. 8 Syracuse, 78-69.

It couldn’t hurt that Baylor plays a lot of zone, too, but when the Bears are facing a more offense-forward team, their zone doesn’t seem quite so effective.

Only Liberty, Iowa and Iona rank below the Bears among tournament teams in KenPom’s defensive rankings.

19. Auburn Tigers

No. 5 Auburn’s 78-77 performance over No. 12 New Mexico State did not exactly inspire great confidence. And if New Mexico State hadn’t passed up an open bunny and missed two free throws at the last second, it would be even less inspiring. 

18. Washington Huskies

The No. 9 Huskies made it look reasonably easy against No. 8 Utah State. The Pac 12 regular-season champs won 78-61 behind 20 points and 12 rebounds from Noah Dickerson and 19 points, five rebounds and five assists from Jaylen Nowell.

Washington, though, is a defensive-minded team. The Huskies averaged just a shade under 70 points per game this season. If they fall behind, they could have a hard time getting back.

17. Purdue Boilermakers

If Carsen Edwards broke out of his slump against No. 14 Old Dominion, Purdue is in good shape. If the 26 points he scored in the No. 3 Boilermakers’ 61-48 win was an abberration—or a product of the fact that he took 23 shots to get there—then the team may not be sitting so pretty.

16. Murray State Racers

Have you heard? Murray State has a player named Ja Morant? It’s true, and his electric triple-double secured what may have been the tournament’s least-surprising upset of any significance when the No. 12 Racers topped No. 5 Marquette 83-64.

Morant is a special talent—and this is far from a one-man show, with three other players scoring in double figures Thursday—but sooner or later someone is going to force all the non-Morant players to beat them.

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Kristian DoolittleKevin C. Cox/Getty Images

15. Buffalo Bulls

This was some kind of impressive display from No. 6 Buffalo. The Bulls stormed onto the scene as underdogs last season. They are underdogs no more, especially not after whipping No. 11 Arizona State 91-74.

Their high-octane brand of basketball almost literally runs other teams off the court: two Sun Devils fouled out during the game, with a third just one foul away.

14. Oklahoma Sooners

No. 9 Oklahoma may not be a true title contender just yet, but it may well have had the best performance of the round of 64 when it booted No. 8 Mississippi to the curb, 95-72. (That was the highest score of the round, by the by.)

Every Sooner seemed to get in on the action, with four guys—Kristian Doolittle, Brady Manek, Christian James and Rashard Odomes—reaching double digits in scoring. The team also hit 46.2 percent from deep.

Will the Sooners be able to sustain this kind of production? We’ll see when they face No. 1 Virginia Sunday.

13. Virginia Tech

Let’s hear it for your Virginia Tech Hokies! After several years of disappointment in the regular season, on the bubble, and in the tournament proper, the Hokies nabbed a four seed this season and took down the No. 13 Saint Louis Billikens, 66-52.

It was the program’s first tourney win in 12 years. Point guard Justin Robinson hit the floor for the first time in about a month and shook off some injury rust with nine points.

The real stars, though, were Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kerry Blackshear, who combined for 35 points, nine rebounds and four steals.

Up next: No. 12 Liberty, whose campus sits just a few hours’ drive from Blacksburg.

12. Houston

The No. 3 Cougars took care of business big time in one of the most lopsided wins of the first 48 hours, an 84-55 victory over No. 14 Georgia State.

They played well on both sides of the ball, as they tend to do despite being known for their defense. Perhaps the most eye-popping statistic was total rebounds, where Houston grabbed 51 to Georgia State’s 27. That will happen when no one on the opposing roster is taller than 6’9″.

11. Villanova Wildcats

The defending champs had their hands full with No. 11 Saint Mary’s, which grabbed national headlines for vanquishing Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference tourney final.

The grinding Gaels held Gonzaga to a measly 48 field-goal attempts—their season average is 60—of which the Bulldogs converted only 18. They nearly did it to Villanova, too, holding it to 49 attempts.

But the Wildcats shook off the lethargy in the second half behind Jermaine Samuels and Eric Paschall, who combined for 26 points and 13 rebounds.

That said, the 61-57 edging reminded everyone of the void Villanova’s seniors left when they, you know, left. 

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Keldon JohnsonMike Ehrmann/Getty Images

10. Virginia

Did they get the monkey off their backs? Sure they did.

Did No. 1 Virginia show real grit when it came back from a six-point deficit to defeat No. 16 Gardner-Webb and its own demons by a score of 71-56? I mean, yes.

But do you trust the Cavaliers to go any further after they were 20 minutes away from joining Scott Norwood, Jean Van de Velde and Fred Merkle as the most infamous losers in sports history?

You can trust them. I’m not going to trust them.

9. Texas Tech

Everyone sleeps on the Red Raiders, but they are awfully good, sitting atop the KenPom defense rankings, among other distinctions.

At the same time, they bring it on themselves a bit, including with that Big 12 tournament shocker loss to West Virginia.

No. 3 Texas Tech bodied the smaller No. 14 Northern Kentucky 72-57, but there are still questions when an opponent (like the Mountaineers) can body the team back.

8. Michigan State

Don’t pencil in Michigan State for a deep tourney run. Mark it in ink.

Few programs have had as much success as the Spartans, particularly without an endless supply of blue chippers. But the No. 2 Spartans didn’t look invincible Friday, shaking off early troubles to move past No. 15 Bradley, 76-65.

Cassius Winston and his 26 points pulled it out as the minutes ticked down. But this can’t feel good in East Lansing, and that’s before you factor in coach Tom Izzo’s on-court outburst, which is a bona fide distraction.

7. Tennessee Volunteers

The No. 2 Vols were making title noise as the tournament got rolling, but the noise died down after a tight battle with No. 15 Colgate.

Sure, Tennessee won 77-70, but not after Colgate closed an early deficit and took a 49-48 lead with 12 minutes to play.

Admiral Schofield was the day’s top performer with 19 points on 6-for-14 shooting and four rebounds besides. Grant Williams, Tennesee’s best player, finished with nine points on 4-of-6 shooting as the Raiders made every effort to deny him the ball. For the most part, it worked, and it was a good thing Schofield, Jordan Bone and others were there to pick up the slack.

Fans should just hope the team can stay balanced Saturday against a less-forgiving Iowa team.

6. Kentucky

After a beating like the one it just laid on poor Abilene Christian, there’s only one thing keeping No. 2 Kentucky off the list of true contenders: that thing on PJ Washington’s leg.

Unfortunately for Wildcats fans, their team’s 79-44 win Thursday over the No. 15 “Not the Kentucky Kind” Wildcats came with a side of sadness. Their best player came to the arena wearing a hard cast on his left leg, and it looks like he won’t be playing anytime soon. 

Kentucky had more than enough for Abilene Christian, with Keldon Johnson leading the way with 25 points on 10-of-16 shooting and six rebounds besides. Still, Washington’s per-game averages of 14.8 points and 7.5 rebounds are going to be tough to replace.

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Dedric LawsonPatrick Smith/Getty Images

Why They’ll Win It All

That’s right. I’m saying it.

Kansas is one of those teams you assume won its first tournament game by around 25 points unless your phone starts vibrating off the coffee table. So it went this year, as the No. 4 Jayhawks spanked No. 13 Northeastern 87-53. My word, that is a butt-kicking.

But as fans know, this isn’t one of coach Bill Self’s truly elite teams, at least by Kansas standards. Most fans will recall all of Kansas’ troubles this year, including the loss of three key players—Silvio De Souza, Udoke Azubukie and Lagerald Vick—for a potpourri of reasons. 

And yes, the Jayhawks lost to Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament, plus a couple more before that. But now remember this: all three of those teams were tourney-bound, and the other two losses came to teams—Texas Tech and Oklahoma—that just had pretty rock-solid showings of their own.

And Kansas has an advantage right now that is worth its weight in March Madness gold: a solid point guard. Not a superstar, just a steady floor leader that knows how to run the offense and facilitate for Dedric Lawson and the like.

For the Jayhawks, Devon Dotson is just such a player, with 18 points and two assists against Northeastern as well as a lot of underrated court acumen to go with much-needed scoring to complement Lawson. This is a team that may be coming into its own at exactly the right moment.

Why They’ll Get Knocked Out

Well, that was Northeastern after all. As a whole, the team shot 28 percent, and that’s not just threes, that’s the whole thing. 

Also, you could just take everything I just said about the lost players and the Iowa State defeat and just say “you’re not correct and shouldn’t spin it that way.” This team is both sides of its own coin.

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Charles MatthewsJamie Squire/Getty Images

Why They’ll Win It All

Another team that didn’t look amazing coming into the field but is looking a lot better now that we’re inside the crucible.

For Michigan, there is a tangible reason for that. Charles Matthews notched a double-double (22 points and 10 rebounds) to lead No. 2 Michigan past No. 15 Montana 74-55.

That has wider implications for the maize and blue, as this was Matthews’ best showing by far since he injured his ankle in the final stages of the regular season. His presence brings much-needed scoring punch behind Jordan Poole and Ignas Brazdeikis, who themselves went for a combined 24 against the Grizzlies.

The defensive side of the ball is automatic for this team. The Wolverines finished the regular season just a shade behind Texas Tech on KenPom’s defensive rankings and held opponents to 58.6 points per game, second in the country behind Virginia.

Why They’ll Get Knocked Out

Michigan is an outsider in this inner circle, and their 35 percent three-point shooting this season is enough to keep the believers away. 

Even more so, however, is the fact that it would have to beat Michigan State to get to the Final Four. That’s something it has yet to do this season, dropping all three contests to the Spartans including the Big 10 tournament final.

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Coby White (left) and Luke Maye (right)Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Why They’ll Win It All

The No. 1 Tar Heels survived a scare in the Midwest Region, falling behind 38-33 to No. 16 Iona at the half before outscoring the Gaels 55-35 the rest of the way for an 88-73 win. Is it time to jump ship on North Carolina? Of course not.

The Tar Heels showed veteran poise in the second half, even as Iona’s three-point attempts—there were 42 in all, geez—started to go begging.

UNC leaders Cameron Johnson and Luke Maye turned it up in the second half. That was the difference, as star Coby White had an off night with 10 points on 2-of-8 shooting.

A winnable game against Washington happens Sunday.

Why They’ll Get Knocked Out

White should rebound, but if he doesn’t, that could be a problem. I know that’s not rocket science given his 16.3 points and team-leading 4.2 assists per game, but he has been known to underperform just a tad at times. Even so, there’s not much to like about one of the nation’s best teams all season.

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Rui HachimuraRick Bowmer/Associated Press

Why They’ll Win It All

Saint Mary’s is out of the tourney, so what’s to stop the Bulldogs now?

Ah, I’m a funny guy. But there was nothing funny about the way Gonzaga smeared poor No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson over the court like marmalade on a toasted English muffin. The 38-point margin of victory in the 87-49 final was the first round’s largest.

The Zags are now winners in 22 of their last 23. That’s not too bad. Rui Hachimura and the Bulldogs made certain there was no drama in this game, leading 53-17 at the half. Their star big man finished with 21 points (8-of-15 shooting) and eight rebounds in just 24 minutes of play. It reminded everyone why Gonzaga finished the season atop the KenPom.com offensive rankings.

With Baylor next and then the winner between Florida State and Murray State, Gonzaga has a relatively easy path through the West Region to the Elite Eight and, if chalk holds, a tough matchup with Michigan.

Why They’ll Get Knocked Out

Kudos to the Zags for holding a hot-shooting Fairleigh Dickinson squad to 30 percent from the field. It will get tougher.

That may be especially true now that the entire country has the book on how to beat them, courtesy of Saint Mary’s: Grind them out and limit possessions. The Gaels held Gonzaga to just 48 field-goal attempts; their season average is 60.

Gonzaga did its part in that game by hitting a dismal 11.8 percent of its threes en route to 47 points overall, easily its lowest output of the season.

That’s almost certainly not going to happen again. One has to suspect the Saint Mary’s loss was an aberration.

Even so, the blueprint is there.

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Zion WilliamsonLance King/Getty Images

Why They’ll Win It All

You can hear their footsteps. They are coming.

Duke hasn’t looked like this kind of juggernaut in quite a while, and that’s saying something.

In No. 1 Duke’s 85-62 drubbing of No. 16 North Dakota State (and, honestly, it wasn’t even that close), Zion Williamson showed what he has shown time and again this season, namely that he’s the best in college basketball. And he’s terrifying.

“Wow,” Williamson said, according to a story from the Associated Press (h/t ESPN). “I’m really here.”

Yes, you are. He announced that arrival with a dominant 25 points, with teammates Cam Reddish and RJ Barrett—wait, he has teammates?—combining for 38 of their own. If those three had played alone, they would have beaten North Dakota State by one.

Why They’ll Get Knocked Out

If chalk prevails, the Blue Devils will have a tough test against Michigan State, who are a notoriously difficult tournament out even if they didn’t look like world-beaters in the round of 64.

Buried in the box score is Duke’s familiar bugaboo on the season: the three-point shot. Yes, the team shot 42.1 percent from deep, but it took only 19 attempts to NDSU’s 29. 

It’s not much to cling to, but if you could somehow contain the Blue Devils’ big three, the three-pointer might just be a weakness. But you can tell them that. I don’t want to.