President Donald Trump’s remarks in recent days about a caravan of Central American migrants heading toward the United States have stirred up a political frenzy — in the process distorting reality and ignoring basic facts.

Such caravans are nothing new — a smaller one formed last spring, and similar caravans have been organized annually for the past two decades. There’s no evidence that the caravan includes Middle Easterners, much less terrorists, as the president has suggested, and annual border crossings remain low by the standards of recent history.

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Amid this blizzard of assertions, basic facts about the caravan and about illegal migration into the U.S. are being contradicted or obscured. Here are a few answers to some elementary questions:

1. Who organized or caused the caravan?

Bartolo Fuentes, an activist and former Honduran lawmaker, initially organized it. In an Oct. 4 Facebook post, he shared a graphic promoting a “Caminata del Migrante” (“Migrant March”). The graphic told migrants and protesters to gather on Oct. 12 at a bus station in San Pedro Sula, one of the most violent cities in the world. “We don’t leave because we want to, violence and poverty chases us out,” it said.

Trump has tweeted that the caravan is a result of “pathetic Immigration Laws” that Democrats refuse to change. But Trump-backed immigration bills that would toughen asylum standards and fund a border wall made no progress this year in the Senate or the House, despite both being controlled by Republicans. It’s unclear whether the measures backed by the White House would discourage migration from poverty- and violence-ridden countries such as Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) tweeted an unverified video clip last week that showed a man distributing money to people with backpacks who appeared to be migrants. Gaetz suggested — citing no evidence — that billionaire philanthropist George Soros was behind the cash payout. Trump later tweeted the same video, but mentioned Democrats, not Soros.

2. Is this the biggest migratory caravan on record?

According to an estimate by the Los Angeles Times, the migrant caravan swelled to more than 7,000 people in recent days. Other estimates have placed it in the thousands, and the numbers appear to be in flux.

Caravans from Honduras have occurred since the late 1990s, but this appears to be the biggest, according to Andrew Selee, president of the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute. The effort — partly a practical strategy for migrants to travel safely and partly a public protest — gained little attention in the U.S. until this spring, when Trump drew attention to a group of more than 1,000 migrants who left Honduras en route to the U.S.

Mass migration in itself — even from Central America — is nothing new. Hundreds of thousands of Salvadorans, Guatemalans, and Nicaraguans fled north to the U.S. and Mexico in the 1980s as those nations experienced brutal civil wars.

3. Are border crossings at record levels?

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said this week that a “record number of migrants” have arrived at the U.S.-Mexico border this year. That’s not true. Border Patrol arrested roughly 397,000 migrants in fiscal year 2018, a figure far lower than the arrest levels in the 1990s and early 2000s, when arrests frequently exceeded one million.

Arrests dropped to their lowest level in decades during Trump’s first year in office. During the past fiscal year they’ve increased, approximating levels during the Obama presidency. From fiscal 2009 to 2016, Border Patrol arrested a yearly average of roughly 413,000 people at the southwest border.

One statistic has reached historic levels: The number of family members arrested at the U.S.-Mexico border rose to roughly 16,658 in September, the most recorded in a single month since Border Patrol began compiling records of families in fiscal year 2012.

But a September 2017 report by the Homeland Security Department that examined available data found that the southwest border “is more difficult to illegally cross today than ever.”

Seth Stodder, a former DHS assistant secretary under President Barack Obama, said illegal immigration from Central America isn’t nearly as intense as what occurred with Cubans and Haitians fleeing in boats in the 1980s and 1990s. “It’s more like a dripping faucet than a rushing tide,” he said.

4. What’s the principal reason migrants are traveling to the U.S.?

Experts cite violence, poverty and family connections in the U.S. as the primary forces driving migrants from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador– as well as the possibility they might be able to remain once they arrive.

5. Are there MS-13 members in the caravan? Are there Middle Easterners in the caravan?

President Trump had claimed there are “some very bad people” in the caravan, and late Tuesday afternoon a spokesman for the Department of Homeland Security tweeted that the agency “can confirm that there are individuals within the caravan who are gang members or have significant criminal histories.” Previously, DHS had declined to comment specifically on whether criminals were in the caravan. “Go into the middle of the caravans, take your cameras … you’re going to find MS-13,” Trump told reporters Monday night. But DHS did not state that the criminals in question belonged to MS-13.

Similarly, Trump said people from the Middle East had joined the group, but he walked back that claim on Tuesday. “There’s no proof of anything. But there could very well be,” he told reporters in the Oval Office.

A Homeland Security Department spokeswoman said earlier this week that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection in fiscal year 2018 arrested more than 17,000 convicted criminals and 3,000 “special interest aliens” — a broad term that includes many countries around the world, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Somalia (DHS does not disclose the full list of countries).

6. Trump wants to cut aid to Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador for allowing the caravan to happen. Why?

Trump has threatened to slash aid to the three countries for their failure to halt migrants heading north. The pressure on Honduras and Guatemala makes some sense — the migrants passed through those countries before heading to Mexico — but including El Salvador, the southernmost of the three, does not.

These countries of the so-called Northern Triangle are some of the poorest in the hemisphere and struggle to provide basic security and social services for citizens. Gross Domestic Product per capita in the United States was roughly $59,532 in 2017. By comparison, per capita GDP that year in Honduras was $2,480.13; in Guatemala, $4,471, and in El Salvador $3,889, according to World Bank data.

To stem the flow of migrants, the Obama administration boosted aid to the Northern Triangle, but that’s been steadily dropping. The aid totaled $700 million in fiscal year 2017, but the White House has already proposed slashing that to $435 million in the coming year.

7. There was an earlier caravan last spring. What happened to the people in that caravan?

A migrant caravan that left Honduras in March attracted more than 1,000 people during a month-long march to the U.S. border. But not all those members approached the border together. The Associated Press reported in May that 100 Central Americans were seeking asylum — a fraction of the original group.

8. What will a caravan member have to demonstrate to be admitted to the U.S. as an asylum seeker?

A person who enters the U.S. without authorization and seeks asylum must prove he or she has “credible fear” of persecution in his or her home country. The test is the first step in an asylum claim and could allow a migrant to remain in the U.S. pending a court date.

9. How will the migrants be greeted at the border by the US government?

Trump has threatened to send the military to the border and shut it down before the migrants can enter. The president already ordered up to 4,000 National Guard troops to the border in the spring (roughly 2,100 are currently deployed), but there’s nothing they can do to discourage asylum seekers. In many cases, families surrender themselves at the border and claim asylum, which means more enforcement power won’t stop them.

When last spring’s caravan reached the San Ysidro port of entry near San Diego in late April, U.S. Customs and Border Protection “metered” the flow of people who could seek asylum. CBP officers permitted only small numbers of asylum seekers to enter for processing each day, leaving dozens of families waiting in Mexico for days.

A September report by the Homeland Security Department inspector general’s office found the practice of metering — which CBP contends prevents overcrowding and related hazards — could actually encourage more illegal crossings.

“Limiting the volume of asylum-seekers entering at ports of entry leads some aliens who would otherwise seek legal entry into the United States to cross the border illegally,” the report said.

Foreign Policy

Ali Shihabi has emerged as a kind of unofficial Saudi ambassador to the U.S. Now he’s squaring a friend’s murder with his staunch support for the embattled royal family.

Even as evidence mounted last week that a Saudi Arabian hit squad had murdered and dismembered his friend, Jamal Khashoggi, Washington operative Ali Shihabi took to Twitter to do what he does best: defend the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

“Leaders and governments make mistakes, sometimes horrible ones,” the suave 59-year-old wrote in a 13-part Twitter thread on Oct. 20. “At present, the Saudi government has been humbled and chastened… But one horrible murder cannot and will not be allowed to put the country further at risk.”

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The reaction from many quarters was scathing.

“Keep cashing those checks, Ali,” wrote Karen Attiah, who edited Khashoggi’s columns for The Washington Post. “I cannot for the life of me understand how you sleep at night.”

The global outrage over Khashoggi’s murder has forced many Washington lobbyists and public relations pros to cut ties with the Saudi government. But not Shihabi, a Saudi national who may be the country’s most effective defender in the U.S. capital. Media savvy and politically shrewd, Shihabi has relationships with prominent journalists, Trump administration officials and think tank experts throughout Washington. The Saudi ambassador left Washington earlier this month and reportedly may not return, but it matters less given that many already consider Shihabi, who is close to the Saudi leadership, to be the kingdom’s unofficial envoy.

Unlike some Arab envoys who can be culturally out of step with their host city, Shihabi — whose father was Saudi and mother Norwegian — has a gracious European demeanor, a wry sense of humor and a taste for good wine. His daughter is even an actress with a starring role in the recent Amazon spy thriller “Jack Ryan.”

A former banker and novelist who leads the nonprofit Arabia Foundation — a think tank founded in the belief that the Saudi government was not making an effective case in the U.S. — Shihabi can often be seen on the D.C. circuit, hitting book parties hosted by the likes of the operative-hostess Juleanna Glover and dining at spots like the Monocle and the Four Seasons with such A-list media figures as Fox News host Tucker Carlson. He also hosts off-the-record dinner-discussions in Georgetown for journalists and policymakers.

He calls himself a provocateur, but Shihabi can be just as on-message any official Arab envoy. He is tall and bespectacled, with a booming voice he uses with little restraint, often talking over his opponents with a wide smile as he rationalizes beheadings as a means of executions, Saudi efforts to counter Iran’s government, and even conditions for the country’s imprisoned dissidents.

“Prison in Saudi Arabia is quite benign,” Shihabi once said during a television appearance with Khashoggi. “They are nothing like the dungeons of the Middle East.” (He later clarified he meant jails for political prisoners, but regretted the way he’d articulated the comment.)

Despite such head-scratchers, Shihabi has developed a sterling reputation among Washington foreign policy elites who consider him a loyal — but not completely doctrinaire — interlocutor between Washington and Riyadh.

“I would describe him as one of the sharpest people I’ve met in this town,” said Walter Cutler, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia. “I have high regard for him personally.”

“I’ve had conversations with him where I’ve said, ‘The Saudi government just did X. I don’t get it. It doesn’t strike me as smart,’” said Elliott Abrams, a former official in the George W. Bush administration. “He’d say, ‘I don’t think so either. I’m trying to get it reversed.’”

But as evidence mounts that Khashoggi was murdered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2, possibly on orders of the crown prince he had often criticized, Shihabi’s skills are being tested like never before. He’s defending a Saudi version of events — that Khashoggi died after physically fighting with Saudi officials waiting for him in the consulate – that has been widely dismissed.

“The killing of Khashoggi has put [Shihabi] in a nearly impossible position, or at least an extremely difficult one,” Abrams said, adding: “He’s a product of his life experience. He’s much more likely to defend the Saudi system than you or I would.”

Others were less kind. “He’s trying to defend the indefensible, and that never works out very well,” a former Obama administration official said on condition of anonymity. “The fact of the matter is that the story that the Saudis have concocted is so blatantly false that he damages his own standing, his own reputation, by trying to argue in defense of it.”

Further complicating matters is the fact that Shihabi had known Khashoggi for many years. The pair had even appeared on TV together to debate Saudi policy.

In a WhatsApp conversation with POLITICO this week, Shihabi noted that he does not accept any Saudi government money, and expressed no doubts about his ongoing support of the embattled Saudi monarchy. He argued that the decades-old U.S.-Saudi alliance is too important to cast aside over the death of one man. It’s an argument that has plenty of traction inside the White House, where President Donald Trump views Saudi Arabia as key to his efforts to isolate Iran and keep oil markets stable.

“I don’t hide my views and don’t mind going against consensus,” Shihabi wrote. “I like to be provocative. I am not running for ‘most popular guy’ in D.C.”

“I am fine,” he added when asked how he’s holding up emotionally. “It is a time of stress, but I follow the quote ‘If you can’t take the heat, get out of the kitchen.’”

Shihabi calls himself a foreign policy “realist,” or “certainly not an idealist.” He is skeptical that liberal democracy can take root in his homeland anytime soon and prizes the idea of stability in Saudi Arabia.

“Nobody has been able to carry out dramatic change in the developing world successfully under a pluralistic system,” Shihabi once said. “You need a benevolent autocracy.”

Shihabi urges Westerners to understand Saudi Arabia’s complex history, especially the role of Islam and tribal heritage. But he also understands that Saudi Arabia must modernize its economy to become less oil-dependent and backs the agenda of the 33-year-old Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, who has checked the Saudi religious establishment and granted women new rights.

“I think MBS has balls,” Shihabi wrote to POLITICO.

He dwells less on the crown prince’s darker actions— including his brief kidnapping of Lebanon’s prime minister, temporary imprisonment of dozens of Saudi royals, a diplomatic feud with Canada over a tweet, and a war against Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen that has left millions on the brink of starvation.

The crown prince’s “personality has made him overreach” at times, Shihabi admits, before blaming much of that on MBS’ more aggressive advisers. “He will rescue Saudi, but will make mistakes and needs more guidance,” Shihabi wrote.

Shihabi has offered some criticism of Khashoggi’s death, calling it a crime carried out by “people who should be and will be treated as criminals.” But he has also echoed the royal family’s official line about the murder, one that U.S. and Turkish intelligence officials call false.

Shortly after Khashoggi’s disappearance, for instance, Shihabi repeatedly cautioned people against jumping to conclusions, arguing that leaks from the Turkish government were unreliable.

“The Turks say 15 people showed up in two planes. You need 15 people to assassinate one person in your consulate?” he wrote on Twitter on Oct. 6. “Story just does not make sense.”

After the Saudi government admitted Friday that Khashoggi had died and announced a series of arrests and firings over the case, Shihabi cast those moves as a huge step forward for the kingdom and its sclerotic bureaucracy, even if MBS himself appears unlikely to face any serious accountability.

Shihabi insists the Saudi leadership has never pressured him or tried to guide his commentary. But he’s frank about sometimes checking himself.

“Do I worry about criticism going too far?” he told POLITICO. “Sure. Because I want to maintain access.”

Shihabi’s primary organ of influence in Washington is the Arabia Foundation, which he established in early 2017. He says he launched the organization after coming to believe that the Saudi monarchy was getting poor results for the millions it spent on lobbying and public relations in Washington.

He describes the foundation as an independent think tank funded by himself and other Saudi businessmen. The foundation doesn’t take Saudi government money, Shihabi says, though he acknowledges that he informed Saudi officials about his plans to establish the foundation, partly to ensure financial support from other Saudis.

Much of the foundation’s focus is not Saudi Arabia, but Iran. Shihabi, like many Saudis and many in the Trump administration, views the rise of Iran as a major threat to the Arab world. As of Tuesday, the foundation’s homepage had no mention of Khashoggi.

Shihabi’s background is unusually varied for a Saudi citizen: His late father, Samir Shihabi, was a Jerusalem-born Saudi diplomat for around 50 years, serving in countries such as Pakistan, Turkey and also performing a stint as the president of the United Nations General Assembly. His late mother was from Norway; the couple met in the late 1940s at Cambridge University.

Shihabi spent much of his life living outside of Saudi Arabia, getting his undergraduate degree at Princeton University and an MBA from Harvard. He then returned to Saudi Arabia in 1985, where he worked in banking and finance. He moved to the United Arab Emirates in the late 1990s, where he launched Rasmala, a private equity fund focused on Gulf Arab countries.

In 2012, after retiring from the banking world, Shihabi debuted as a writer.

He first wrote a novel, “Arabian War Games,” that explored what would happen if Iran invaded Saudi Arabia just as Israel tries to expel its Israeli-Arab minority into Jordan. (An “impotent” United States “helplessly watches events play out,” according to one summary.) Shihabi later wrote a non-fiction book titled, “The Saudi Kingdom: Between the Jihadi Hammer and the Iranian Anvil,” in which he proposed reforms the country should undertake to avoid instability.

Along the way, Shihabi acquired residency in Portugal where he has a farm. One of his two sons oversees an avocado business there. “It’s a very profitable business, but I made my money in private equity and inheritance from my father,” Shihabi wrote.

While Saudi Arabia is known for promoting an austere form of Islam that many experts say breeds terrorism, Shihabi comes across as relatively open-minded and liberal – up to a point.

Shihabi’s daughter, Dina Shihabi, is an actress who recently had a major role in the new Amazon spy series “Jack Ryan.” Shihabi has long supported his daughter’s ambitions, but he was upset after seeing an episode in which she had a brief nude scene.

“This is not how she was brought up and does not reflect our values,” he wrote on Twitter in September. “Clearly the pressures of Hollywood got the better of her as a new actor.” Shihabi later deleted the tweet, but the U.K.’s Daily Mail turned it into a fully illustrated story.

Even as Shihabi comes under fire for his commentary about Khashoggi’s death, his defenders say he is offering a valuable nuanced and long-term vision of the U.S.-Saudi relationship.

“Ali’s been very clear that the death of Jamal is wrong, is horrible, is indefensible,” said Adam Ereli, a former U.S. ambassador to Bahrain who serves on the advisory board of the Arabia Foundation.

“But at the same time the death of a journalist is what it is. It’s not the end of the world,” he added. “What are we supposed to do, stop doing everything? And just put the Middle East on hold while we vent our rage and punish everybody?”

BREAKING … REBECCA MORIN: “Sandra Day O’Connor diagnosed with dementia”: “‘As this condition has progressed, I am no longer able to participate in public life,’ she wrote. ‘Since many people have asked about my current status and activities, I want to be open about these changes, and while I am still able, share some personal thoughts.’ …

“O’Connor noted that her diagnosis has not ‘diminished my gratitude and deep appreciation for the countless blessings in my life.’ ‘How fortunate I feel to be an American and to have been presented with the remarkable opportunities available to the citizens of our country,’ O’Connor wrote. ‘As a young cowgirl from the Arizona desert, I never could have imagined that one day I would become the first woman justice on the U.S. Supreme Court.’” POLITICO

FOR YOUR RADAR — @AFP: “#BREAKING: Trump wants to meet Putin in Paris on November 11: Bolton”

NEW QUINNIPIAC POLL … ANDREW GILLUM is beating RON DESANTIS, 52%-46% … The full poll

WAPO’S BOB COSTA speaks with VP MIKE PENCE — PENCE speaks about the caravans: The video

… AND ON KHASHOGGI — BUZZFEED’S VERA BERGENGRUEN (@VeraMBergen): “Pence, at an event to talk about the Space Force, is first asked about Khashoggi. ‘This brutal murder of a journalist, of an innocent man, of a dissident, will not go without an American response.’” … 5:46 video

GOOD NEWS FOR REPUBLICANS? … WAPO/SCHAR SCHOOL POLL: “The latest survey shows only a marginal change in the race during October, with 50 percent currently supporting the Democratic candidate in their district and 47 percent backing the Republican.

“Candidates from the two parties collectively are running almost even in 48 contested congressional districts won by President Trump in 2016, while Democrats hold the advantage in 21 competitive districts won by Hillary Clinton. The Democrats’ lead in those Clinton districts has narrowed a bit since the beginning of the month.

“The overwhelming majority of the districts surveyed — 63 of the 69 — are currently represented by a Republican in the House. Collectively these battleground districts voted strongly for Republicans in the 2016 election. The fact that the margins today are where they are illustrates the degree to which the GOP majority is at risk but also the fact that many individual races are likely to be close. Democrats need to gain a net of 23 seats to take control of the chamber.” WaPo

Good Tuesday afternoon. SPOTTED: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) having dinner this weekend at Fish MRKT in Reykjavik, Iceland … Paul Begala dining at Taillevent in Paris on Monday.

WHAT’S ON THE PRESIDENT’S MIND — @realDonaldTrump at 11:24 a.m.: “The people of Puerto Rico are wonderful but the inept politicians are trying to use the massive and ridiculously high amounts of hurricane/disaster funding to pay off other obligations. The U.S. will NOT bail out long outstanding & unpaid obligations with hurricane relief money!”

IMMIGRATION FILES — DAN DIAMOND, “HHS reviews refugee operations as Trump calls for border crackdown”: “A top official at the Department of Health and Human Services, which runs the refugee resettlement program, is conducting what she called a ‘top to bottom’ review of the program, three months after the migrant crisis paralyzed the agency last summer. That includes examining the leadership of Scott Lloyd, director of the Office of Refugee Resettlement …

“Nearly 250 children separated at the border still remained in HHS custody as of last week. About 13,000 other migrant children also are in agency custody — the highest number ever — as the Trump administration has slowed down releasing the children to families and other sponsors. … The agency has run out of room at its traditional facilities and has turned to temporary shelters.” POLITICO

— CHRIS CADELAGO and TED HESSON: “Why Trump is talking nonstop about the migrant caravan”: “In pressing the issue, Trump sees a twofold advantage. It’s a way to argue that his opponents have ‘turned a blind eye to the problem,’ as one Republican working on the strategy put it, and also an opportunity to rev up his base. Although Democrats remain strongly favored to win back the House, overhead TV pictures of thousands marching north have them spooked. … Whether any real crisis exists at the border remains a matter of considerable debate.” POLITICO

— NYT’S JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS, “The Ripple Effect of a Trump Tweetstorm: When President Trump began tweeting warnings and threats about a caravan of migrants headed for the border, his own government could not explain what he meant.” NYT

HEADS UP — FOREIGN POLICY’S ROBBIE GRAMER (@RobbieGramer): “Secretary of State Pompeo will deliver remarks to the media at 3:45 p.m. today.”

MORE ON KHASHOGGI — NYT’S ALAN RAPPEPORT in RIYADH: “Saudi Crown Prince Gets Standing Ovation Despite Inquiries Into Khashoggi”: “Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, received a standing ovation as he made an unannounced appearance at a global investment conference here on Tuesday, further clouding an event that has been thrown into disarray after the killing of a dissident Saudi journalist.

“The crown prince, who is suspected of playing a role in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, appeared just ahead of a late afternoon presentation about technology but did not give any remarks. His presence came as American business executives attending the conference tried to keep a low profile and Saudi Arabian business leaders attempted to distance themselves from Mr. Khashoggi’s murder.” NYT

— “Turkish president: Saudis plotted writer’s killing for days,” by AP’s Suzan Fraser, Zeynep Bilginsoy and Chris Torchia in Ankara, Turkey: “He demanded that the kingdom reveal the identities of all involved, regardless of rank. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also said he wants Saudi Arabia to allow 18 suspects that it detained for the Saudi’s killing to be tried in Turkish courts, setting up further complications with the Saudi government …

“Erdogan’s speech was previously pitched as revealing the ‘naked truth’ about Khashoggi’s slaying. Instead, it served merely to put a named source to information already circulated by anonymous officials and the Turkish press.” AP

— “Sky sources: Jamal Khashoggi’s body parts found,” by Sky News’ Alex Crawford in Istanbul: “Sources have told Sky News the writer had been ‘cut up’ and his face ‘disfigured’. One source also suggested Mr Khashoggi’s remains were discovered in the garden of the Saudi consul general’s home. …

“The apparent discovery of Mr Khashoggi’s body parts – and Mr Erdogan’s version of events based on what he described as ‘new evidence and information’ – both contradict Saudi Arabia’s explanation for his death.” Sky News

— THE INTERCEPT’S RYAN GRIM: “Having Escaped Scrutiny In Wake of Jamal Khashoggi’s Murder, It’s Business as Usual for the UAE”: “[L]ife goes on as normal for UAE Ambassador Yousef Al Otaiba, the diplomat who lobbied Washington heavily to support Crown Prince Mohammed’s internal efforts to disrupt the line of ascension and put himself next in line for the throne. …

“Otaiba, according to an invitation obtained by The Intercept, will be hosting a dinner party Tuesday night for former Obama administration Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker at his Virginia mansion. The invite identifies Pritzker by her current role as the chair of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.” The Intercept

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION — “‘I’ve never seen these positions politicized’: White House rejection of veterans judges raises concerns of partisanship,” by WaPo’s Lisa Rein: “The Board of Veterans’ Appeals has long filled a nonpartisan role in the federal government, run by dozens of judges charged with sorting through a thicket of regulations to determine whether an injured veteran is entitled to lifetime benefits.

“But this summer, the White House rejected half of the candidates selected by the board chairwoman to serve as administrative judges, who make rulings on the disability claims. The rejections came after the White House required them to disclose their party affiliation and other details of their political leanings, according to documents viewed by The Washington Post. Such questions had not been asked of judge candidates in the past, according to former judges and board staff.” WaPo

2018 WATCH — “Democrats find new ways to talk about entitlement cuts in campaign’s closing days,” by NBC’s Heidi Przybyla: “Democrats are seizing on a report detailing a nearly dollar-for-dollar balance between two decades of tax cuts benefiting the wealthiest one percent and proposed GOP spending cuts to the nation’s social safety net programs. … It also marks a shift in messaging for a party that recognizes simply decrying ‘tax cuts for the rich’ is a losing strategy without explaining its impact on the federal budget and individual households. …

“House Budget Committee Republicans responded by saying the biggest threat to entitlements is a failure to address their looming funding crisis.” NBC

— NYT’S JULIAN BARNES: “U.S. Begins First Cyberoperation Against Russia Aimed at Protecting Elections”: “The United States Cyber Command is targeting individual Russian operatives to try to deter them from spreading disinformation to interfere in elections, telling them that American operatives have identified them and are tracking their work, according to officials briefed on the operation.

“The campaign, which includes missions undertaken in recent days, is the first known overseas cyberoperation to protect American elections, including the November midterms.” NYT

— ADAM WREN in POLITICO Magazine: “How to Win Indiana”: “The state has 11 different media markets that campaigns must be mindful of, making it logistically difficult to formulate an ad strategy. Outside of Indianapolis, many Hoosiers get their news from out of state. …

“We really are an agrarian and industrial crossroads, one that could affect the Senate race between [Sen. Joe] Donnelly and Republican Mike Braun. … Because of this eclectic economic mix, the state has been roiled by the national debate about outsourcing and tariffs.” POLITICO Magazine

— NYT’S PATRICIA COHEN and SYDNEY EMBER in Yardley, Pa.: “What Could Hold Back a Democratic Wave? Economy, Confidence, Independence.”

AT THE PENTAGON — “Here’s The Pentagon’s Initial Plan For Creating a Space Force,” by Defense One’s Marcus Weisgerber: “The U.S. Space Force will include uniformed service members drawn from the Air Force, Navy and Army — but it is not expected to include the National Reconnaissance Office mission, according [to] an internal draft of the Pentagon’s plan to create a sixth branch of the military.

“Defense One reviewed a copy of the 13-page document, which will be further developed in coming months before the Pentagon sends it to Congress in February along with its 2020 budget request. … Among other things, it reveals divergent views among senior Pentagon officials about how to structure it.” Defense One

AFTERNOON READ — “Farmers helped propel Trump to the White House. Their loyalty is being tested by his trade war,” by CNN’s Dan Merica: “In conversations with more than 50 farmers, producers and agriculture experts in five states representing each of the five food groups, one trend was clear: The once-deep ties to President Donald Trump have frayed over the past year. But they remain intact for a small majority of farmers CNN spoke with ahead of the critical 2018 midterm elections. Democrats, who see an opening with Trump’s trade war, will likely struggle to make inroads with these voters.

“The President gives all of them plenty to complain about. … But if the President’s re-election were held tomorrow, most of them would back him. They trust Trump, and many believe Democrats don’t understand or largely ignore their way of life. Still, Trump’s deep support in rural America, which helped propel him to the White House in 2016, is being tested.” CNN

TRANSITIONS — Several former Treasury Department officials — including Matthew Epstein, Howard Mendelsohn, Janice Gardner and Robert Werner — are launching Kharon, a research and analysis platform that helps global banks navigate sanctions.

SPOTTED at Alan Greenspan’s celebration for “Capitalism in America: A History,” his book with Adrian Wooldridge, hosted by Jim and Kate Lehrer and Mary Graham: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Bruce Babbitt and Hattie Babbitt, Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Jeffrey Goldberg and Pam Reeves, Andrea Mitchell, Michelle Smith, Ann Jordan, Sally Quinn, Maya McGuinness, Patty Stonesifer, Michael Kinsley, Ruth Marcus, Walter and Ann Pincus, Bob Costa, Buffy Cafritz, Bob Schieffer, Margaret Carlson, Jerry Rafshoon, Judy Woodruff and Pete Williams.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Alex Pappas, a politics reporter at FoxNews.com, and Nancy Pappas, a high school teacher at D.C.’s Richard Wright Public Charter School, welcomed Mae Lawrence Pappas, who came in at 7 pounds, 6 ounces. Pic

• Anna Palmer @apalmerdc
• Jake Sherman @JakeSherman
• Daniel Lippman @dlippman
• Eli Okun @eliokun
• Garrett Ross @garrett_ross

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