The United States told the UN’s top court it has no jurisdiction to rule on Iran’s demand for the suspension of nuclear-related sanctions recently reimposed on the country.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague “lacks prima facie jurisdiction to hear Iran’s claims”, US State Department lawyer Jennifer Newstead argued on Tuesday.
During the first hearing of the case on Monday, Iran argued US President Donald Trump breached a 1955 treaty with his decision to reimpose sanctions after withdrawing from the landmark 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
Iran unemployment crisis, rising living costs bite amid sanctions
Newstead said the United States has the right to protect its national security and other interests.
She said the treaty “cannot therefore provide a basis for this court’s jurisdiction” in the case.
Sanctions on Iran were lifted under the 2015 accord with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany. In return, Tehran committed not to develop nuclear weapons.
However, Trump said the deal did not do enough to curb the alleged threat from Iran. He pulled the US out of the accord in May and began reimposing sanctions earlier this month.
“This case is entirely about an attempt to compel the US by order of this court to resume” the 2015 nuclear deal, Newstead said.
On Monday, Iran’s lawyers said the sanctions were threatening the welfare of its citizens and disrupting tens of billions of dollars worth of business deals.
Lawyer Jennifer Newstead, right, looks at Iran’s representative Mohsen Mohebi on Tuesday[AFP]
The Islamic Republic’s lead representative in the case, Mohsen Mohebi, branded the sanctions “naked economic aggression”.
“The United States is publicly propagating a policy intended to damage as severely as possible Iran’s economy and Iranian nationals and companies,” Mohebi said.
“Iran will put up the strongest resistance to the US economic strangulation by all peaceful means.”
But the US lawyers held Iran to blame for its economic woes.
US-Iran sanctions: Economic uncertainty hits hard
They have “deep roots in the Iranian government’s mismanagement of its own economy and repression of its own population”, Newstead said.
The court in the Netherlands adjourned until Wednesday when Iran will have the opportunity to respond to the US’ arguments.
The ICJ is expected to take several weeks to decide whether to grant Tehran’s request. A final decision could take years.
Its judgements are binding, final and without appeal, however, it has no power to enforce its decisions.
However, whether any decision will be implemented remains unclear. Both Iran and the US in the past have ignored the UN court’s rulings against them.
Despite the 1955 Treaty of Amity and Economic Relations, the two countries have not had diplomatic ties since 1980.
Justice Department official Bruce Ohr (right) has become the Trump allies’ latest focus in their efforts to raise questions about the investigators who ran the probe into the Trump campaign’s contacts with Russia. | Pablo Martinez Monisvais/AP Photo
Bruce Ohr, the Justice Department official whose longtime relationship with former British spy Christopher Steele has drawn intense scrutiny from Capitol Hill Republicans, is facing questions Tuesday about the timing of his contacts with Fusion GPS, the firm that worked with Steele to create and disseminate his so-called dossier about President Donald Trump’s relationship with Russia.
Ohr, who appeared for a closed-door interview in a Capitol office building, has become the Trump allies’ latest focus in their efforts to raise questions about the investigators who ran the probe into the Trump campaign’s contacts with Russia. As a senior Justice Department staffer, Ohr passed along Steele’s information to the FBI, even after the bureau terminated its formal relationship with Steele over media leaks.
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Republicans have raised questions about Ohr’s contacts with Steele and Ohr’s wife Nellie, who worked for Fusion. Lawmakers and staff in the room said Ohr was accompanied by a handful of attorneys, including a personal lawyer and counsel for the Justice Department.
At least seven GOP lawmakers — members of the House Judiciary and Oversight Committees — attended as well: Reps. Mark Meadows, Jim Jordan, Trey Gowdy, John Ratcliffe, Darrell Issa, Matt Gaetz and Andy Biggs. No Democratic lawmakers were on hand, but staffers of both parties attended.
Gaetz, emerging from the interview after nearly two hours, said Ohr appeared to be answering questions forthrightly but that his testimony about the timing of his contacts with Fusion appeared to conflict with answers given to lawmakers by Fusion GPS cofounder Glenn Simpson and former FBI attorney Lisa Page.
“Either Bruce Ohr’s lying or Glenn Simpson’s lying,” Gaetz said, describing “a number of factual conflicts” between their testimony. He added that they could conceivably have competing recollections but that it will be important to bring both before the Judiciary Committee in a public hearing to sort out the facts.
Gaetz, Meadows and Issa told reporters that Ohr’s testimony revealed that the FBI had more significant doubts about the credibility of the Steele dossier than the bureau revealed when it applied for a court-ordered surveillance warrant on a former Trump campaign adviser, Carter Page, in October 2016.
“Not only did the FBI know that the dossier was unverified, but they also knew that there were real credibility issues where it would never end up in a courtroom,” Meadows said.
Meadows and Gaetz also emphasized that Ohr appeared to handle this matter differently than any other in his 27-year Justice Department career, describing a “unique set of circumstances” they said raised questions.
Meadows added that lawmakers also learned who Ohr provided the dossier to inside the FBI when he first provided a version of it in 2016. But he declined to name the official, saying that the specifics of the interview are meant to remain confidential.
Ohr is expected to be in the closed-door interview most of the day. Attorneys for Simpson and Page were not immediately available for comment.
While meeting Pro Bowl linebacker Khalil Mack‘s contract demands could cost the Oakland Raiders tens of millions in salary, not paying him could cost them games in 2018.
Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson reported Tuesday Mack is prepared to continue his holdout into the regular season and miss games if his contract situation is not taken care of before the season opener on Sept. 10.
The No. 5 overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft, Mack is currently only under contract for the fifth-year option in his rookie deal. He is scheduled to make $13.846 million in 2018, perSpotrac.
Since being drafted, Mack has quickly become one of the top defenders in the league. He has racked up 231 tackles, 40.5 sacks, nine forced fumbles, one interception and one touchdown in four seasons. He has earned three Pro Bowl nods, two first-team All-Pro selections and the 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award.
As the holdout drags throughout the preseason, The Athletic’sVic Tafur reported last week that there is “nothing new” in contract talks and that the two sides remain far apart on guaranteed money. Oakland coach Jon Gruden recently called the negotiations a “grueling process,” viaTafur.
Getting Mack back on the field figures to be a top priority in the Bay Area. However, according toMike Florioof Pro Football Talk, the Raiders aren’t ruling out the possibility of a trade. After all, Gruden ison the recordof saying “we weren’t very good last year on defense with Khalil Mack.”
The two sides are quickly running out of time to strike a deal before the holdout has actual ramifications. At this point, Mack has not been able to work himself into Gruden’s system, which could prove problematic if or when he finally returns to the field. Then again, if no deal is reached, the Raiders may be forced to play without the leader of their defense and see their playoff hopes take a serious hit.
After close to two weeks of tensions in Uganda, a court in the northern town of Gulu granted bail to four opposition legislators including MP Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, fondly known by his stage name Bobi Wine. In videos circulated on social media, Kyagulanyi was seen in the courtroom moving with difficulty using crutches.
The lawyer of the 36-year-old singer said he had been “brutalised” in detention. Kyagulanyi initially was charged with illegal possession of firearms and ammunition in a military court while the other three MPs were detained and charged with treason on August 16 along with 31 other Ugandans. After ten days in military confinement, the military court dropped Kyagulanyi’s charges but he was re-arrested and also charged with treason.
The detainees have been accused of pelting a presidential motorcade with stones on August 13 in the town of Arua; at the time of the alleged incident, President Yoweri Museveni was not in any of the cars and had long left the town. That day, political rallies were held by the ruling party and the opposition ahead of important by-elections.
After the rallies ended, the police and the Special Forces Command of the military descended on Arua, raiding hotels and violently arresting legislators, hotel guests and bystanders. Kyagulanyi has claimed that his driver was shot dead before the raids.
Two days later, independent candidate Kassiano Wadri, whom Kyagulanyi supported and who was also detained, won the vote in Arua. This was the third parliamentary by-election Museveni’s party lost to the opposition and Kyagulanyi, or Bobi Wine, played a key role in the outcome of the vote.
The presence on the political scene of the 36-year-old musician-turned-parliamentarian, who took up politics after 15 years in the music industry, is seen as a growing threat by the ruling elite. These fears and the violent reactions they are generating might turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Music of resistance
Kyagulanyi was born in Mpigi district, central Uganda, but came of age in Kamwookya, one of the poorest suburbs of Kampala. It is here that he launched his music career in the early 2000s after he graduated from Uganda’s oldest university – Makerere University – with a degree in music, dance and drama. He came to be famously known as the “Ghetto President” for persistently speaking out about the struggles of the lower classes and the urban poor in Uganda.
His lyrical genius and courage to drop songs that hit directly at government failures and excesses made him spectacularly popular among Ugandan youth. He insisted that Ugandans had many questions but few answers from the corrupt political leaders.
His outspokenness and growing popularity made him a target of government censorship, particularly after President Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, started feeling the demographic shift in the country’s electorate.
For a decade he had relied on the rural vote and older people who still suffered from the collective trauma of having survived the atrocities of past Ugandan regimes. These segments of Ugandan society are risk-averse and aren’t ready to rock the boat rowed by the man who gave them some feeling of safety even as war raged on in most of northern Uganda up until 2008.
Although Bobi Wine has always been political in his lyrics, it wasn’t until 2016 that he made his first step into politics. That year, the presidential elections were yet another contest between President Museveni and his longest-running political rival Dr Kizza Besigye.
It was that year that Museveni decided it was time to reach out to the young and increasingly desperate generation. To do that, he paid Uganda’s leading artists to compose a song praising his efforts and to campaign for him, a move that infuriated many young people, who retaliated by boycotting their music until some of the musicians apologised. It was then that Bobi Wine’s star shone brightly on the Ugandan political scene: he rejected the president’s offer to join his campaignand was quite vocal about his decision.
As other musicians sang Tubonga Naawe (We are with you) for Museveni, praising his great deeds, Kyagulanyi released Dembe (Peace), attacking the president’s greed for power directly and condemning political violence.
“Why would you wash white clothes only to hang them on a dirty log to dry?” sang Bobi Wine in reference to what Museveni was doing to the little he had achieved by clinging onto power. “Why don’t you look up to Mandela as an example? He ran for one term and released the flag” goes another line of the song.
Another track released in 2016, Situka (Rise up), which his supporters sang during protests against his detention, called on young people to rise up and march together against oppression. “When the going gets tough, the tough must get going, especially when leaders become misleaders, and mentors become tormentors, when freedom of expression becomes the target of suppression, opposition becomes our position,” goes the opening line of the track.
In 2017, when a court nullified an earlier parliamentary election in Kyaddondo East, a constituency on the outskirts of Kampala, Kyagulanyi seized the opportunity. He won the seat in a landslide victory despite Museveni all but camping in the area during the campaign period.
Bringing ‘the ghetto’ to the parliament
After he was sworn in as an MP, Kyagulanyi did not stop being Bobi Wine. He told reporters that if the parliament won’t go to the ghetto, the ghetto will go to the parliament. He then embarked on several concerts across the country, prompting Uganda’s highly partisan police to ban some of his scheduled performances in October 2017.
At the height of debates on the constitutional amendment that would later remove the age limit for the president, allowing Museveni to run for yet another re-election, Bobi Wine released Freedom .
“We know you fought a Bush war, but imagine a child who was unborn when you came has long become a parent… They request that you don’t touch their constitution because it’s their only remaining hope,” Bobi Wine sang.
Uganda: Court frees jailed opposition MP Bobi Wine
Together with the opposition Democratic Party, he led the “Togikwatako” (Do not touch) movement which protested the changing of the last clause in the constitution that stood in the way of 74-year-old Museveni holding onto power for life.
During one of the parliamentary debates, the army stormed parliament and several MPs were assaulted. This was a clear signal that President Museveni had grown impatient about dealing with any opposition.
In July this year, Bobi Wine was also instrumental in rallying young people to protest a new social media taxwhich the president presented as being intended to deter “gossip”, but which was actually a desperate measure trying to curb escalating anti-Museveni sentiment among the young generation.
Why is Bobi Wine a threat to Museveni’s power?
Bobi Wine’s magnetic pull on the electoral scene, which has helped the opposition in key by-elections, has increased paranoia within the ruling party. The realisation that the ground is slowly shifting under their feet has sent those in power into a panic.
These few electoral victories are a sign of what awaits President Museveni if he tries to run again in a country where around 65 percent of the population was born after he took power. His previous tactics of paying off voters and using the trauma of the past to coax people into voting for him are no longer working. And his attempt to talk to the young generation has ended in complete failure.
Young people have responded with contempt to Museveni calling them his “bazzukulu” (grandchildren); their aspirations largely do not include him ruling Uganda past his 77th birthday.
Young Ugandans face high unemployment rates and a lack of economic opportunities. What was once touted as Museveni’s greatest achievement – security – has been put to a great test the last two years. Crime has increased, with around 43 women targeted, kidnapped, raped and murdered within Kampala and the surrounding areas in the last 18 months.
Trying desperately to cover up the fact that his popularity is rapidly declining, the president has blamed the recent electoral setbacks on the Electoral Commission, which he has accused of being “full of rotten people”. This is a president grappling with defeat and fearing he could lose the next presidential vote.
Nothing about the arrest, torture and charges against Bobi Wine is new. Museveni has handled his main opponents and their supporters in the same way in the past. What is new is the ability of young people to organise, speak up and mobilise on and offline, galvanised by a young voice who is just like them – Bobi Wine.
His is the story of an outsider who brought his own folding chair to a table no one expected him to be at. Whether he will continue with the same gusto after his release and medical treatment remains to be seen. What Kyagulanyi has given young Ugandans is an idea and a hope for a post-Museveni future that the president cannot just wish away.
However, it will take a lot more effort on the part of the opposition – beyond Bobi Wine and a grwoing cult-like following – to bring down Museveni’s rule.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
Sen. Lindsey Graham declined to say what else is at the root of Trump’s frustration with Attorney General Jeff Sessions, saying only that “we won’t say on this show, but it’s a pretty deep breach.” | Leigh Vogel/Getty Images
The rift between President Donald Trump and Attorney General Jeff Sessions goes “deeper” than than Sessions’ decision to recuse himself from a federal investigation into the 2016 election, Sen. Lindsey Graham said on Tuesday.
“It is much deeper than that,” Graham (R-S.C.) said, in an appearance on NBC’s “Today” show. “The relationship is beyond repair, I think.”
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Graham declined to say what else is at the root of Trump’s frustration with the attorney general, saying only that “we won’t say on this show, but it’s a pretty deep breach.”
Last week, Trump did not rule out the possibility of firing Sessions during an interview with Fox News’ “Fox & Friends.” Trump has long complained about Sessions, criticizing him regularly for his decision to recuse himself from any Justice Department investigation related to the 2016 election, a move that has sidelined him from overseeing the Russia probe led by special counsel Robert Mueller. Trump has called that investigation a “witch hunt.”
In his “Fox & Friends” interview last week, Trump said Sessions should have told him he would recuse himself from 2016-related investigations and that the attorney general had failed to take control of the Justice Department.
“What kind of a man is this?” Trump said during that interview.
The president’s remarks prompted a rare rebuke from Sessions, who released a statement insisting that “the actions of the Department of Justice will not be improperly influenced by political considerations” and that the Justice Department has had “unprecedented success at effectuating the president’s agenda” since Sessions took office.
For much of his tenure as attorney general, Sessions has been buoyed by support from Capitol Hill, where he served for years as a senator from Alabama before joining the Trump administration. But the tide has begun to turn against Sessions in recent weeks, with both Graham and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) opening the door for the Senate to confirm a new attorney general.
But while Graham said Tuesday that Sessions could be replaced, he said any new attorney general would have to pledge to allow Mueller’s probe to continue without interference. “Nobody is going to take Jeff’s place that doesn’t commit to the Senate, and the country as a whole, that Mueller will be allowed to finish his job without political interference,” Graham said.
“He is not the only man in the country that can be attorney general. He is a fine man. I’m not asking for him to be fired. But the relationship is not working,” Graham said. “Is there somebody who is highly qualified that has the confidence of the president, and will also understand their job is to protect Mueller? Yes, I think we can find that person after the election if that is what the president wants.”
It should come as no surprise that record-breaking Korean group BTS is bursting with Virgo energy. How else would they have released their ambitious, meticulously plotted compilation album Love Yourself: Answer just a few short months after dropping their chart-topping LP, Love Yourself: Tear? Hardworking, perfectionist Virgos know how to get things done efficiently, and BTS is blessed to have two of them in their ranks: leader RM and the group’s youngest (and strongest) member, Jungkook.
Seeing how Answer kicked off the first weekend of Virgo season in style — leading with every Leo’s boisterous new anthem “IDOL” — let’s match the rest of the album with the right celestial energy.
(Full disclosure: I am a Virgo sun, Aquarius ascendant, Leo moon, and *sexy whisper voice* Sugaaa is my bias. Credit goes to Genius and @doyou_bangtan for the English translations.)
Aries (March 21 — April 19): “Trivia 起: Just Dance”
Out of the rap line’s three solo tracks on Answer, it makes sense that Bangtan’s resident hype man and ray of sunshine, J-Hope, was behind “Trivia 起: Just Dance.” It’s the funky future-bass anthem that fiery Aries needs to expel all of that restless energy in a healthy, active way. Assertive Aries is always on the move — they seriously can’t sit still — and now they have the perfect song to listen to while plotting world domination.
Biggest mood: “Hey, dance with me dance with me / Any kind of bounce is fine, dance with me”
Taurus (April 20 — May 20): “Serendipity”
When it comes to love, Taurus is persistent. It’s in their bullish nature to hold onto things, which makes Jimin’s soft and sweet love ballad the song for you. Jimin just wants to love deeply and be loved in return, you know? While easygoing Taurus might scoff at the idea of “love at first sight” and prefer to move at their own pace — they don’t have time for games — when they find someone worth holding onto, they won’t let go. (Sometimes to their own detriment.)
Biggest mood: “I don’t wanna let go, no”
Gemini (May 21 — June 20): “Fake Love”
It’s not that you can’t trust a Gemini, but they’re extremely hard to read. There’s a natural duality to Geminis, and they often lack the self-awareness to know when their occasionally fickle actions affect others. They’re affectionate one minute and aloof the next; they hate routine and grow bored easily. As such, “Fake Love” (BTS’s first Top 10 single on the U.S. charts) is more or less a song about what it’s like to love a Gemini, when you give so much of yourself to someone only to lose yourself in the process. But don’t be too harsh on the Twins; they’re just curious beings who can’t be tied down.
Biggest mood: “I’m so sick of this fake love”
Cancer (June 21 — July 22): “DNA”
The moody, emotional core of the zodiac, Cancers are always all up in their dizzying array of feelings, and they have a tendency to grow emotionally attached very quickly. But they love unconditionally, and a song like “DNA” — a fizzy banger bolstered by whistles, guitar, and EDM beats — is all about falling head first into a blinding, cosmic type of love.
Biggest mood: “From the day of the universe’s creation and beyond / Through the infinite centuries and beyond / In the previous life and maybe the next too / We’re eternally together”
Leo (July 23 — August 22): “IDOL”
No one embodies confidence quite like charismatic Leo. Constantly starved for attention, a Leo tends to stand out in any crowd with their loud, gregarious nature. But it’s their tenacity and ambition that makes them the brightest sign in the zodiac. Simply put, they are the personification of Big Dick Energy. And “IDOL” is a Leo rallying cry, a celebratory anthem about self-love that’s larger — and louder — than life. You can’t stop Leo from loving themself.
Biggest mood: “Whatever the reason for your criticism is / I know what I am / I know what I want / I never gon’ change”
Virgo (August 23 — September 22): “Trivia 承: Love”
Clever Virgo overanalyzes everything, so of course rapper RM (a Virgo himself) is waxing poetic all over “Trivia 承: Love,” asking philosophical questions like “Is this love?” and spiraling over his anxieties with sharp wordplay and smooth vocals. RM’s ability to process the minutiae of love in such a methodical way is what makes him such a Virgo king. Stop worrying, Virgo, and enjoy the fall.
Biggest mood: “Before I knew you / My heart was filled with straight lines only”
Libra (September 23 — October 22): “Trivia 轉: Seesaw”
Libra strives for harmony and balance, especially when it comes to love. They’ll stay in a relationship even if they know it isn’t working just to avoid awkward confrontations and loneliness. So there’s a lot for a Libra to take away from “Trivia 轉: Seesaw,” a standout track on the album that depicts the painful decision to leave a relationship. Lead rapper Suga trades his slick tongue technology for a melodic R&B flow as he laments the “repeating seesaw game” of his failed romance over a disco beat. When one person loves more than the other, the balance is dangerously off — and that’s no way to live, Libra.
Biggest mood: “They know they’ll get hurt if one person is missing / Because we don’t want to be the villains”
Scorpio (October 23 — November 21): “I’m Fine”
Scorpios are messy and live for drama, but behind that cool, confident exterior lies deep insecurities. A Scorpio will never let you know how they’re really feeling, so even if it looks like they’ve moved on after a breakup, chances are they’re a total mess inside. Still, passionate Scorpio can put on a brave front. That hard-earned emotional resilience is front and center on “I’m Fine.” The song is a spiritual continuation of the group’s 2016 track “Save Me.” Now, however, BTS doesn’t need anyone to save them; they can save themselves. And a Scorpio has never had a problem being the hero of their own story.
Biggest mood: “I’m feeling just fine, fine, fine / I’ll keep telling myself / Even if I fall down again / I’m fine”
Sagittarius (November 22 — December 21): “Euphoria”
Largely considered to be the happiest sign in the zodiac, optimistic Sagittarius loves adventure, which makes Jungkook’s playful solo track “Euphoria” a go-to bop for this fire sign. Co-written by RM, the dreamy pop song revels in the bliss of young love, when everything is still so new and exciting and brilliantly unexpected. The song radiates warmth and happiness, existing in its own colorful world void of life’s harsh realities — just like a Sag.
Biggest mood: “Take my hands now / You are the cause of my euphoria”
Capricorn (December 22 — January 19): “Answer: Love Myself”
Capricorns are hard-working and reliable — which are great qualities, by the way — but as a result, uncompromising Caps have a tendency to take on too much and overwork themselves. When it comes to work-life balance, Capricorns are all work and no play, and they hold everyone else to their impossible standards. Sometimes, Capricorn, you have to slow down and practice self-care. Listen to BTS and love yourself. You’ve earned it.
Biggest mood: “It’s just that loving myself / Doesn’t require anyone else’s permission”
Aquarius (January 20 — February 18): “Singularity”
Flighty Aquarius wears their heart on their sleeve, which makes them prone to heartache. So it’s no surprise that an Aquarius can come off as cold or distant when you first meet them. It’s a survival instinct. Aquarius is often caught in the middle of their own contradiction — friendly and unemotional; rebellious and steadfast — not unlike V’s somber, reflective solo song, “Singularity.” The singer’s signature rasp floats over the R&B track, which finds him desperately crooning about the turning point in a relationship and the mask he wears to conceal his true feelings. Just like Aquarius, “Singularity” is a frustratingly beautiful riddle.
Biggest mood: “Have I lost myself / Or have I gained you?”
Pisces (February 19 — March 20): “Epiphany”
Precious, selfless Pisces. You’re empathetic to a fault. You care so deeply for everyone and everything around you. A natural caretaker, you often forget to take care of yourself. It’s time to be a little selfish, Pisces. You’re too smart to forgo your own happiness for someone else’s. And, hey, you may be indecisive and oversensitive, but you should learn to love your faults. Listen to Jin: “Not so perfect but so beautiful / I’m the one I should love.”
Biggest mood: “I’m the one I should love in this world / Shining me, precious soul of mine”
Machar agreed to a ceasefire and power-sharing agreement with the South Sudan government last month [Reuters]
South Sudan rebel leader Riek Machar along with other main opposition groups have refused to sign the latest draft of a peace deal with the government that would end a brutal civil war.
But Machar’s refusal to sign the latest draft could be a sign of how difficult it will be to implement a full agreement.
“The main South Sudanese opposition groups, including the SPLM-IO (Machar faction), refused to sign the final document demanding that their reservations be guaranteed in it,” Sudan‘s Foreign Minister Al-Dierdiry Ahmed told reporters in Khartoum on Tuesday.
Previous peace deals have held for only a matter of months before fighting resumed.
Kiir has blamed the collapse of previous peace agreements on foreign influence.
The warring parties have held weeks of talks in Khartoum in search of a comprehensive peace deal to end the conflict that has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions.
In June, an initial agreement was signed to end the fighting, but Machar rejected some proposals such as having three different capitals to distribute power.
“In 2015, the government changed the number of states from 10 to 32,” said Al Jazeera’s Hiba Morgan.
“Machar has opposed that vehemently and said he didn’t want 32 states. He wanted 10 so that he can have more control. This was one of the main sticking points between the two sides.
South Sudan‘s civil war erupted in December 2013, less than two years after the country gained independence from Sudan.
The war has uprooted a quarter of South Sudan’s population of 12 million, ruined the country’s agriculture sector and battered its economy.
On Saturday, South Sudan resumed drilling for oil in some abandoned oilfields to boost the country’s economy.
GOOD MORNING MOUNTAIN VIEW! … THE PRESIDENT GOOGLES HIMSELF AND … @realDonaldTrump at 5:24 a.m.: “Google search results for ‘Trump News’ shows only the viewing/reporting of Fake New Media. In other words, they have it RIGGED, for me & others, so that almost all stories & news is BAD. Fake CNN is prominent. Republican/Conservative & Fair Media is shut out. Illegal? 96% of…”
… at 5:34 a.m.: “….results on ‘Trump News’ are from National Left-Wing Media, very dangerous. Google & others are suppressing voices of Conservatives and hiding information and news that is good. They are controlling what we can & cannot see. This is a very serious situation-will be addressed!”
TRUMP TAKES OVER MCCAIN’S WEEK … LAST NIGHT, while sitting with evangelical leaders, PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP finally addressed SEN. JOHN MCCAIN’S death. He said “our hearts and prayers are going to the family of Sen. John McCain.” “We very much appreciate everything that Sen. McCain has done for our country,” he said.
IN REALITY, Trump has already made this story about him. His silence — and flip-flopping on the flag — has kept Washington (and particularly the media) on edge. Any other president would’ve just lowered the flag to half-staff for the week, issued an effusive statement and moved on.
TRUMP IS MAKING PLAIN what we already knew: He never much liked McCain, and he’s not really concerned what anyone thinks about his behavior. TRUMP seems fully confident that his supporters haven’t cared for McCain in any way since 2008 — when they concluded his constituency was mostly reporters and middle-of-the-road Republicans. In some ways, Trump’s candidacy and presidency are a direct response to the candidacies of McCain and Mitt Romney.
… HERE’S A THOUGHT FROM JOHN HARRIS: McCain is deeply admired for martial virtues. But for two generations politicians who represent martial virtues haven’t done well in presidential politics.
START WITH RONALD REAGAN, who spent World War II in Hollywood, then led the conservative movement at a time when true military experience was still the norm at the top ranks of national politics.
FOR THE PAST QUARTER-CENTURY, the presidency has been held by people who either took steps to avoid Vietnam service (Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Trump) or were too young to serve (Barack Obama).
CLINTON, BUSH AND OBAMA all beat people who had seen serious combat in World War II or Vietnam.
IN AN AGE IN WHICH MOST POLITICAL AND MEDIA ELITES have no military experience, there does seem to be a romantic longing for what people imagine the military and its values represent: physical toughness, valor, moral clarity, as against a general climate of softness, selfishness and blurred lines of right and wrong.
THE REACTION TO MCCAIN’S DEATH represents that longing. But in real life, when people who claimed that their biographies represent such virtues actually faced the electorate at the presidential level, the response has been harsh. Opponents made them look obsolete and out of touch (as Clinton did to Bush 41 and Bob Dole, and Obama did to McCain) or portrayed them as self-righteous phonies (as partisans of Bush 43 did to John Kerry in 2004 and to some extent to McCain in the 2000 primaries).
THE IDEALIZED PORTRAIT OF MCCAIN — an unyieldingly honest man who placed principle over self — is surely appealing, and at his best the Arizona senator’s life really did approximate that ideal.
BUT THE REASON MCCAIN’S DEATH HAS RESONATED so deeply is that everyone recognizes that Trump — a supremely transactional figure for whom truth and everything else is infinitely flexible and subordinate always to self-interest — is the more authentic representative of the age.
Good Tuesday morning. MCCAIN’S PARTING SHOT — “We weaken our greatness when we confuse our patriotism with rivalries that have sown resentment and hatred and violence in all the corners of the globe,” McCain said in his statement, which was read aloud at the Arizona state capitol by McCain’s longtime aide Rick Davis. “We weaken it when we hide behind walls rather than tear them down, when we doubt the power of our ideals rather than trust them to be the great force for change they have always been.” The full statement
ARIZONA REPUBLIC’S MARIA POLLETTA quotes Rick Davis: “I think a Hispanic woman probably would’ve been his pick for a successor if he would’ve lived long enough.” AZ Central
TV THIS MORNING — Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) will be on NBC’s “Today” live in the 7 a.m. hour.
THE SENATE SPEAKS … ELANA SCHOR: “GOP senators ding White House over McCain flag dust-up”: “Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said that the Monday flap over White House flags rising while Capitol flags remained at half-staff for McCain ‘should not have happened.’ ‘That should have been automatic,’ Hatch told reporters. ‘You do things that are sensible. And sensitive.’ …
“‘I could not understand why the administration had the flag lowered for such a brief period of time,’ Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said. Asked if Trump was letting his strained relationship with the late six-term Arizonan get in the way of honoring McCain, Collins added: ‘It certainly looks that way, but I can’t speak for his motive. I’m just glad that the decision’s been reversed.’” POLITICO
— THE DEFENDERS KEEP ON DEFENDING: David P. Gelles (@gelles): “Sen. James Inhofe told reporters that Sen. John McCain was ‘partially to blame’ for the controversy over the lowering of the White House flag. Inhofe said McCain ‘disagreed with the president in certain areas and wasn’t too courteous about it.’”
THE REPLACEMENT — “Ducey aims to please Trump with McCain fill-in: The Arizona governor has grown closer to the White House since cautiously embracing the president in 2016, but can’t risk alienating moderate voters,” by Chris Cadelago, Daniel Strauss and Theo Meyer: “Arizona Republican Gov. Doug Ducey’s decision to replace the late John McCain is as much about his own political future as it is about filling the seat of the six-term senator and decorated war hero.
“Republicans with knowledge of the governor’s thinking say he’ll have to remain deferential to Trump and the White House while also taking care not to alienate a statewide electorate ahead of a tough reelection fight in November. Ducey — a former Coldstone Creamery chief executive — was hesitant to publicly endorse Trump in 2016 but showed up to at least two closed-door campaign events for him before the election, said one Republican close to the governor.” POLITICO
FLIP ALERT! … “Manafort Sought Deal in Next Trial, but Talks Broke Down,” by WSJ’s Aruna Viswanatha: “Paul Manafort’s defense team held talks with prosecutors to resolve a second set of charges against the former Trump campaign chairman before he was convicted last week, but they didn’t reach a deal, and the two sides are now moving closer to a second trial next month, according to people familiar with the matter. The plea discussions occurred as a Virginia jury was spending four days deliberating tax and bank fraud charges against Mr. Manafort, the people said. That jury convicted him on eight counts and deadlocked on 10 others.
“The plea talks on the second set of charges stalled over issues raised by Special Counsel Robert Mueller, one of the people said. It isn’t clear what those issues were, and the proposed terms of the plea deal couldn’t immediately be determined.” WSJ
JUST POSTED … AMY CHOZICK profiles STORMY DANIELS for VOGUE … with Annie Leibovitz photos.
BIG NEWS FOR 2018 — “North Carolina’s gerrymandered map is unconstitutional, judges rule, and may have to be redrawn before midterms,” by WaPo’s Robert Barnes: “A panel of three federal judges held Monday that North Carolina’s congressional districts were unconstitutionally gerrymandered to favor Republicans over Democrats and said it may require new districts before the November elections, possibly affecting control of the House.
“The judges acknowledged that primary elections have already produced candidates for the 2018 elections but said they were reluctant to let voting take place in congressional districts that courts twice have found violate constitutional standards. North Carolina legislators are likely to ask the Supreme Court to step in.
“The court traditionally does not approve of judicial actions that can affect an election so close to the day voters go to the polls. But the Supreme Court has just eight members since Justice Anthony M. Kennedy’s retirement last month; a tie vote would leave the lower court’s decision in place. Senate hearings on President Trump’s nominee to fill the open seat, Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh, commence Sept. 4.” WaPo
— THE NORTH CAROLINA CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION is right now 10 Republicans and three Democrats. And there are some Republican power players: Rep. Patrick McHenry, the chief deputy whip, and Rep. Mark Meadows, the chairman of the Freedom Caucus, to name a few. Shaking up the map would put some heavy hitters in a tough spot.
THE NEW NAFTA … “Trump embraces Mexico, threatens Canada with trade deal,” by Sabrina Rodríguez, Adam Behsudi, Megan Cassella and Doug Palmer: “The United States and Mexico reached a two-way trade deal Monday, moving President Donald Trump one step closer to fulfilling a core campaign promise to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement.
“The development, which happened after U.S. and Mexican trade officials met regularly for five weeks, could clear the way for Canada to return to the table to try to reach a final updated agreement in the coming days, according to three sources close to the negotiations. But Trump also warned that efforts to revamp the 24-year-old pact could result in two different agreements and threatened Canada with tariffs on automobiles if Ottawa didn’t agree to negotiate ‘fairly.’ ‘I think we’ll give them a chance to probably have a separate deal,’ Trump said, referring to Canada.” POLITICO
UNDERSTANDING THE WHITE HOUSE’S TRADE POSITION … MEGAN CASSELLA and SABRINA RODRÍGUEZ of our trade team write in: “The announcement of the breakthrough between the U.S. and Mexico is certainly something for the administration to celebrate: Both sides worked extremely hard over the past year — and especially over the last month — to get this far, and it gives Trump a major policy win to tout on the campaign trail this fall.
“It also hands a get-out-of-jail-free card to Republicans who were trying in many ways to stay aligned with the president heading into the midterms but found themselves increasingly disillusioned with his trade policies. But we also shouldn’t mistake Monday’s announcement for what it’s not: a concrete deal.
“If the Trump administration seriously tries to move forward with only a two-way deal with Mexico — leaving Canada on the sidelines — Capitol Hill and business groups are almost certain to push back by saying that Trump only had a mandate to renegotiate NAFTA, not to create a new U.S.-Mexico deal. Plus, Mexico is also resisting the notion that the development will ultimately result in a bilateral agreement, opting to call it an ‘understanding,’ not a deal. Mexican officials are operating with the full hope that Canada will re-enter talks today and have a full deal by Friday.
“If Canada is going to sign on, that means all three countries need to get on the same page over the next four days — but it’s not going to be easy. But a three-way agreement is the most certain way to ensure a deal gets to North American leaders’ desks by the end of November.”
TRUMP’S TUESDAY — The president is having lunch with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. He will also meet this afternoon with FIFA President Gianni Infantino.
KNOWING RUDY — “In Defending Trump, Is Giuliani a Shrewd Tactician or ‘Untethered’?” by NYT’s Dan Barry, Benjamin Weiser and Alan Feuer: “The man identified these days as President Trump’s lawyer seems vaguely familiar. It’s in the way he feigns genuine laughter. How he clasps his hands. How he widens his eyes, as if he’s just been handed a birthday cake with a firecracker for a candle.
“He is, of course, Rudolph W. Giuliani, whose public utterances of late have people debating whether he is a shrewd manipulator of public opinion or just — befuddled. But all agree that he relishes the limelight, every microphone a corkscrew capable of unleashing the spirits of his considerable id.
“Indeed, he is working for the president free of charge. There Mr. Giuliani was again on Thursday, opining from a Trump-owned golf course in Scotland while dressed in green-plaid golf togs bearing the Trump name. When a reporter from Sky News asked whether he thought that impeachment of President Trump was inevitable, Mr. Giuliani defended his client with a few provocative assertions before closing with: ‘You’d only impeach him for political reasons, and the American people would revolt against that.’” NYT
NBC’S HEIDI PRZYBYLA in Dearborn, Michigan: “Trump era is igniting a new wave of Muslim-American candidates”: “For the first time in two decades, American Arabs and Muslims are stepping up to run for public office in record numbers, registering to vote and bundling money for candidates from their community, according to Jetpac, a nonprofit working to increase American Muslim civic engagement.
“With inflammatory rhetoric on immigration and his active push for a travel ban aimed primarily at Muslim-majority countries, Trump has put a national spotlight on the community’s long running travails. Trump has called for the monitoring of mosques and appointed Cabinet members and political advisers who have disparaged Muslims.
“He’s also likely put the final nail in the coffin for the community’s waning support for the GOP, political experts say.” NBC
BOSTON GLOBE … “Keep Nancy Pelosi in power? Many Mass. Democrats running for Congress are hesitant,” by Matt Stout: “[I]n Massachusetts’ busy slate of House primaries, support for the California Democrat is registering at barely a simmer, leaving uncertain how much support she will get from the reliably Democratic delegation after the November midterm elections. The Boston Globe asked each of the 24 Democrats on the Sept. 4 primary ballot in the state’s nine congressional districts if they’d support Pelosi for speaker — should Democrats win the House — or for another term as the party’s minority leader. Only one-quarter of them said they would.
“Of the six candidates who backed Pelosi, three are incumbents. Seven of the candidates said they won’t back her, and 10 others — including four current representatives facing primary fights — were noncommittal, saying it was too early to make a pick. One Democrat did not respond.” Globe
MEDIAWATCH — “BuzzFeed News Asks Readers to Chip In With Donations: Digital-media company allows readers to donate between $5 and $100 to help pay for cost of newsroom; could be prelude to membership model,” by WSJ’s Benjamin Mullin: “BuzzFeed News is becoming the latest newsroom to ask its readers to help shoulder the cost of newsgathering. … The donation feature asks readers to ‘help us report to you’ and calls upon them to join a community that will shape the future of BuzzFeed News.
“Contributors will get timely updates on big investigations and new programming from BuzzFeed News, a person familiar with the program said. If successful, it could be a prelude to a membership program with more perks, the person said, noting that the company has no plans to charge its readers for content.” WSJ
— “A million-dollar gift to journalism, without ties, and the reason for that,” by David Beard in Poynter: “Craig Newmark, Craigslist founder and head of Craig Newmark Philanthropies … [is] giving $1 million to Mother Jones, hoping to boost the investigative outlet’s ability to combat disinformation campaigns against the American people. The unrestricted gift follows Newmark donations to ProPublica, the Center for Public Integrity, the Columbia Journalism Review and the university’s Tow Center, Wikimedia and The Ground Truth Project, among others.” Poynter
VALLEY TALK – “Top Facebook communications exec Rachel Whetstone is departing for Netflix,” by Recode’s Kara Swisher: “Whetstone is the latest high-ranking executive to leave the massive social network in recent months. Her boss, Elliot Schrage, announced in June that he was planning on leaving the company; business development head Dan Rose said last week he was also departing. Whetstone is replacing former Netflix comms head Jonathan Friedland, who was fired earlier this summer from the digital entertainment company.” Recode
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK … TRANSITION: Obama alum Adrian Saenz is joining the Latino Victory Project as executive vice president. Saenz served as special assistant to President Obama and deputy director of intergovernmental affairs and senior adviser for intergovernmental affairs.
BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Matthew Swift, chairman, co-founder and CEO of The Concordia Summit. What he’s read recently: “I recently finished reading ‘Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup,’ by Wall Street Journal reporter John Carreyrou. It is the story about Theranos, the blood testing company founded by Elizabeth Holmes. I vividly remember meeting Elizabeth in Sedona, Ariz., at a conference, and … I will never forget listening to her talk and thinking that if she had the technology she claimed to have, it would change the world. … I think everyone should read this book to remember that our society and systems do not work without people having integrity and honesty. Commerce and governance only work if there is a basic level of trust, and stories like that of Theranos really amplify this.” Playbook Plus Q&A
BIRTHDAYS: Alex Skatell of IJR (hat tips: Anton Vuljaj and Gerrit Lansing) … Bill Cohen, chairman and CEO of The Cohen Group and former secretary of defense and senator from Maine, is 78 … Herald Group’s R.C. Hammond (h/ts Taylor Gross and Matt Mowers) … POLITICO’s Marty Kady … Kimberly Plumer … AP’s Ken Thomas … Allison Lichter … Tori Stilwell … Pat Pelletier … Robert Greenwald, founder of Brave New Films, is 73 … Morgan Chalfant, recently promoted as national security reporter at The Hill (hubby tip: Raffi Williams) … Hilary Halpern, associate at the Cypress Group … Ryan McDevitt … Ellen Carmichael … Brian Horn … Ellen Ratner … Jessica Herrera-Flanigan, EVP of gov’t and corporate affairs at Univison Communications … Darius Tandon (h/t Tracy Sefl) … Mallory Blount, deputy press secretary at HUD, is 24 (h/t Alex Sarp) …
… Sarah Carlson Brooke, director of NBC’s “Meet the Press” … Thomas Winslow, a principal on the mobilization and campaign management team at Precision Strategies … Meghan Snyder … Jim O’Brien, vice chair of the Albright Stonebridge Group … Connor Ryan … Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Calif.) is 66 … Callie Strock … Ann Marie Jablon … Robert Simpson … Scott Miller … Michael Keefer … Jay Wegimont … Luke Bunting … Luci Arveseth … Abbie Sumbrum … Lindsay Gill … Arlet Abrahamian … Rachael Dollar … Charles Schneider … Jennifer Cervantes … Nick Tropin … Square’s Taylor Bolhack … Steve Nichols … Naila Alam … David Gray … Lane Roberts … Kate Peyton … Carol Kelly (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
On Saturday, South Sudan resumed pumping 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from the Toma South oilfield, where production had been suspended since 2013 due to civil war, Sudan’s oil and gas minister Azhari Abdulqader said.
Once maintenance work on five previously suspended oil fields is completed, it is expected to increase production to 80,000 bpd with the country’s oil output reaching 210,000 bpd by the end of the year.
Income from oil accounts for 98 percent of the country’s budget.
Insecurity and the post-2014 oil price crash left the economy in tatters. But the increased oil output will revive South Sudan’s economic fortunes, according to Kimo Adiebo, an economics professor at the University of Juba.
“This increases government’s share in oil production and eventually oil revenue,” Adiebo told Al Jazeera.
“Additional oil revenue would enable the government to stick to its policy of not printing money – borrowing from the central bank – and hence more control of inflation and the exchange rate, leading to gradual macroeconomic stability.”
The most intense fighting between rebels and South Sudanese government troops took place at the Toma South oilfields, just over 30km from the border with Sudan, damaging oil production facilities.
But the country’s oil crisis could have been avoided, Professor Paul Moocraft, Director Centre for Foreign Policy Analysis, said.
“Juba cutting the oil off at the start of the post-independence war with Khartoum was the biggest self-inflicted political injury since Hitler declared war on the US,” said Moocraft.
“Clearly, independence has been a catastrophe for the south and a disaster for the north. Yet, in Africa, politics always trumps economic logic.”
Minister of Petroleum Ezekiel Lol Gatkuoth launches the pumping of crude oil in Ruweng state [Jok Solomun/Reuters]
Working relationship
The resumption of oil activities is part of a ceasefire and power-sharing agreement between President Salva Kiir, rebel leader Riek Machar and other rebel groups to end the country’s civil war.
The peace deal has revived hopes of economic stability being restored.
South Sudan lacks the infrastructure to process its oil production. It is landlocked, forcing the young nation to use pipelines that go through Sudan to export its oil to the international market.
In June this year, Khartoum and Juba agreed to repair oil infrastructure facilities destroyed by the war within three months in order to boost production and said a joint force would be established to protect the oilfields from attacks by rebel forces.
“Maybe utter war-weariness and famine may allow some sense to prevail and the two main sides in the civil war may now work with Khartoum,” said Moocraft.
“It is interesting how President Omar al-Bashir has had a good working relationship with Kiir and Machar. The level of corruption in the south is so bad that very little of any oil – or aid – money gets to the ordinary citizen. The problem is that all the money is held in Juba.
“Yet, if some money gets to peripheries, it fuels tribal warlordism. Paradox of development.”
Oil production was at around 245,000bpd at the time fighting started. But plummeted to about 120,000bpd during the war from a peak of 350,000bpd, according to the World Bank.
Investor confidence
Juba is seeking new investors in the oil sector after the government halted talks with French oil company Total about developing two oil blocks.
Total, alongwith two other oil companies, had been in talks about developing those oilfields since 2013.
But Total and the government failed to agree on the duration of the exploration and the commercial terms of a production-sharing agreement.
However, despite the peace deal, investors remain skeptical. Rights campaigner Beny Mabor told Al Jazeera that the prospects of attracting investors are bleak as long as conflict go unaddressed.
“Investment is equal to secure environment, Therefore, if there’s peace, the investors will come and if not, I’m afraid they might not either,” Mabor said.
In March, the US imposed sanctions on 15 South Sudanese oil operators who allegedly assisted government to buy weapons and funded militia groups.
The conflict in South Sudan has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions [File: Reuters]
Tens of thousands of people were killed by the civil war which also forced millions to flee their homes, triggering a humanitarian crisis and ruined the country’s economy that heavily relies on crude oil production.
Seven million South Sudanese, more than half of its population, will need food aid in 2018, according to the United Nations.
“This additional oil money may enable the government to increase spending towards poverty reduction, education, health, social welfare and humanitarian aid,” said Adiebo.
“Diverting more of this additional oil money towards consolidation of peace would bring security to rural areas and hence enable the IDPs to return to their home areas and engage in more productive activities such as farming with the view of addressing food insecurity,” he added.
Rep. Martha McSally, an Air Force fighter pilot-turned-politician, is entering Tuesday’s primary as the prohibitive frontrunner for the GOP Senate nomination in Arizona. | Matt York/AP Photo
Tuesday’s primaries have big implications in the battle for the House and Senate.
The last big primary day of the 2018 midterm elections was worth the wait. It features a fierce Republican primary for a must-win Senate seat in Arizona, a half-dozen races with major implications for the battle for the House and competitive primaries in three key governor’s races.
Republicans are choosing a replacement for Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, picking between Rep. Martha McSally, the establishment choice, and two other lightning-rod candidates best-known for their inflammatory rhetoric. The results — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has publicly acknowledged that the party’s only real chance to keep the seat is to nominate McSally — will put the final definition on the 2018 Senate map.
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In the nation’s biggest swing state, both parties will pick nominees for the most competitive, big-state governorship up this year: the race to succeed Florida Gov. Rick Scott. Tuesday also signals the official kickoff of Scott’s high-profile challenge of Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) in what will be the most expensive Senate race of the cycle — though Nelson is unopposed for his nomination on Tuesday, and Scott is expected to breeze to victory against nominal opposition.
There are also a handful of other high-stakes races on the ballot Tuesday — congressional primaries in both Arizona and Florida that are crucial to Democratic efforts to win control of the House this fall, and a runoff in Oklahoma for the GOP gubernatorial nomination between the long-time former mayor of Oklahoma City and a first-time candidate challenging him from the right.
Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern Time in most of Florida, though a sliver of the Panhandle is in the Central Time Zone, and polls stay open there an hour later. Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern in Oklahoma and 10 p.m. in Arizona.
Here are 8 things to watch as the results come in:
RonDeSantis’ Trump bump
When Adam Putnam abandoned his safe House seat in 2009 to run for state agriculture commissioner, it was obvious his ambitions were set on a higher office in Tallahassee.A POLITICO story about Putnam’s announcement called the ag commissioner job “a stepping stone to the governor’s office.”
But that was before President Donald Trump took over the GOP; when being a Republican in Washington was a liability; when it was better to be an elected official in Tallahassee than to campaign from a D.C. television studio.
Rep. Ron DeSantis arrived in a different era. He was a candidate for Senate last cycle — before Sen. Marco Rubio reneged on his promise and decided he would, in fact, run for a second term after falling short in the presidential race. DeSantis scurried back to his House district before the filing deadline and was able to bide his time for another shot.
DeSantis entered the race well behind Putnam in the polls, but he cultivated a relationship with the new president, getting on Trump’s radar mostly through frequent appearances on Fox News Channel, which Trump reportedly watches with near-religious dedication.
Trump ultimately endorsed DeSantis — first, with a tweet late last year, then with an in-person rally and some more tweets — and DeSantis shot to the top of the polls. The latest pre-election surveys show a modest comeback for Putnam, but DeSantis still has a wide lead.
Trump has taken a far more active role in Republican primaries than his predecessors, who were far less willing to wade into intraparty battles. The president has a winning record in those races — though, last week in Wyoming, Trump endorsed GOP megadonor Foster Friess on the eve of a gubernatorial primary that Friess would go on to lose.
A DeSantis victory would be a boon to Trump, who recorded a last-minute, election-eve robocall going out to GOP voters. But Democrats are eager to run against the congressman, viewing him as a weaker general-election candidate than Putnam because of his ties to Washington and close embrace of the president.
The longFlorida Democratic drought
It’s been two dozen years since Democrats won a gubernatorial election in Florida, and this year’s primary is wide open.
Former Rep. Gwen Graham — the daughter of Bob Graham, the former governor and senator — has been the slight favorite for most of the race. But chasing her down are three men with significant resources: former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, billionaire investor Jeff Greene and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum.
Through last Thursday, Graham had spent $5.7 million on her campaign, far less than self-funders Levine ($28.5 million) and Greene ($34.6 million). Gillum has spent less, $2.5 million, but he’s been propped up by outside sources, including billionaire Tom Steyer.
All four candidates have jogged leftward in the race for the nomination — a dynamic on display Sunday, after a shooting at a video-game demonstration in Jacksonville left two people, plus the alleged shooter, dead. The candidates all called for stricter gun laws in the state and criticized what they called GOP inaction on the issue.
If Democrats are going to break a streak that goes back to 1994 — when then-Gov. Lawton Chiles narrowly beat back a challenge from Jeb Bush — most observers see Graham as the strongest of the four candidates for the general election.
Blue wave or red tide?
Despite Democrats’ national momentum and the highly publicized political activism of some of the Parkland high school shooting survivors, the party didn’t make gains in Florida voter registration in the run-up to Tuesday’s primary.
And when Republicans were outpacing Democrats in returning the first absentee ballots over the past few weeks, it looked like a second data point that suggested a blue wave may not materialize in Florida.
But, over the past few weeks, Democrats have closed the gap. As of Monday afternoon, 46 percent of the primary ballots either returned or cast via in-person early voting were from Republicans, while 44 percent were from Democrats. That’s a closer margin than in the 2016 congressional primaries, when Republicans accounted for 48 percent of the early ballots, compared to only 40 percent for Democrats.
Between the Nelson-Scott battle royale, the governor’s race and a handful of South Florida congressional races central to the battle for control of the House, Florida is living up to its political reputation in 2018 — and both parties will be measuring the political winds on Tuesday.
Incumbents under siege
Three central Florida Democrats are staring down primary challenges on Tuesday, as their opponents try to outflank them from the left.
In the Orlando suburbs, former Rep. Alan Grayson is seeking a political comeback in his old House district, after losing a 2016 Senate primary bid. Grayson, who’s running against Rep. Darren Soto, aired TV ads that said in block letters: “Impeach Trump. Grayson will. Soto won’t.”
Grayson entered the race with significant baggage, after he was questioned about connections to an offshore hedge fund and a contentious divorce with his ex-wife during his Senate primary run. Soto, meanwhile, has hammered Grayson for past criticism of former President Barack Obama.
The fight between Rep. Al Lawson, who hails from Tallahassee, and former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown is as much about geography as political differences. Brown, who represented the more heavily populated area of the district, ran to the left of Lawson on his gun record. But a poll from University of North Florida found that Lawson led Brown by 19 points with just days left in the race.
Due north of Orlando, Democrat Chardo Richardson got a boost with an endorsement from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in his primary bid against Rep. Stephanie Murphy. But Richardson raised only $40,000 over the entire cycle, while Murphy is sitting on $1.6 million in cash. The first-term congresswoman, who unseated then-GOP Rep. John Mica two years ago, is expected to win the primary.
WillMcSally take flight?
McSally is entering Tuesday’s primary as the prohibitive frontrunner for the GOP Senate nomination in Arizona, but it didn’t come without effort.
An Air Force fighter pilot-turned-politician, McSally aired television ads calling former state Sen. Kelli Ward — who won 40 percent of the vote in an unsuccessful primary challenge against McCain from the right in 2016 — a “former Democrat” and said Ward was “attacking President Trump’s plans to crack down on illegal immigration.” McSally also had a super PAC attacking Ward on national security on her behalf.
(Ward spent the final days of the campaign complaining that public announcements about McCain’s declining health were aimed at hurting her candidacy, then decrying those who objected to her use of the word “cancer” to describe “political correctness” in a tweet after McCain’s death.)
Arizona hasn’t elected a Democratic senator — Rep. Kyrsten Sinema faces only token opposition in Tuesday’s Democratic primary — since Dennis DeConcini won reelection in 1988, but hugging Trump in the primary doesn’t come without risk. Trump only carried the state by 4 percentage points in 2016 — far closer than previous Republican presidential candidates.
But before we get to November, keep an eye on McSally’s final margin over Ward and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Can she clinch a majority of the vote, or will Ward and Arpaio still draw relatively large shares of support from voters?
The numbers will provide clues about where the post-McCain Arizona GOP is headed — and one can bet Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, who will name McCain’s replacement in the coming days, will be paying attention.
First things first
Ducey has a primary challenger of his own on Tuesday — former Secretary of State Ken Bennett — but the incumbent is heavily favored to win renomination.
The Democratic race — where David Garcia, a former associate superintendent of public instruction, is the frontrunner — is more competitive.
Ducey and Republicans have already started attacking Garcia as soft on immigration, anticipating a stiff general-election challenge. But Democrats point to Ducey’s own weak poll numbers as reason for optimism.
Can Kirkpatrick catch up to Heinz?
Two out of three women running in open House Democratic primaries in 2018 have won, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis. But it’s not clear whether the year of the woman is coming to Arizona’s 2nd District, where former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is seeking to return to Congress.
Kirkpatrick, who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. John McCain in 2016, is locked in a nasty, personal primary battle against Matt Heinz, the 2016 congressional nominee and former state legislator. Heinz has run to the left of Kirkpatrick, a DCCC-endorsed candidate who took moderate votes in Congress when she represented a different, more rural, House seat.
TV ads from both Kirkpatrick and Heinz attack their opponents’ voting record. But Heinz has also cast Kirkpatrick as a carpetbagger, as she’s now running in a district that borders her old seat. Heinz took the former congresswoman to court over her residency, but a judge tossed the case.
The pair dumped more than $2.4 million in the race, leaving whomever emerges from the primary with a bruised profile and a drained bank account. Republican Lea Marquez Peterson, meanwhile, is expected to cruise through to the general election.
But Kirkpatrick shrugged off the attacks in an interview with POLITICO last week, noting that she’s weathered “$40 million in attack ads already,” and she’s “excited” to see that “women are winning. … We are seeing that here locally.”
Boomer Sooner
While Arizona and Florida will dominate the night, GOP voters in Oklahoma are headed to the polls to finish picking a gubernatorial nominee. No candidate won a majority of the vote in the June 26 primary, and the top two finishers — former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett (29 percent) and businessman Kevin Stitt (24 percent) — have been battling in an at-times-ugly campaign for the past two months.
In many ways, it’s a classic insider-vs.-outsider GOP primary race. Stitt has attacked Cornett — a pro-business mayor of the state’s largest city for 14 years — as a career politician and insufficiently right-leaning. Cornett, on the other hand, has pointed to his accomplishments and sought to chip away at Stitt’s conservative credentials.
Stitt has objected to a series of Cornett ads — produced by the creative GOP ad-maker Fred Davis — in which Cornett beat back Stitt’s attacks with some wordplay, calling them “bull-Stitt.”
“The vulgarity to use someone’s name is the lowest of the low,” Stitt said in a debate last week. “That’s going to backfire. People don’t like those dirty name-calling tricks, and it shouldn’t have happened.”
Whichever candidate wins the nomination on Tuesday, they won’t be on a glide path to the governorship. Despite the state’s Republican orientation, Democrats have a real candidate — former state Attorney General Drew Edmondson — and polls show outgoing GOP Gov. Mary Fallin has high disapproval ratings in the state.
![Machar agreed to a ceasefire and power-sharing agreement with the South Sudan government last month [Reuters]](https://i0.wp.com/www.aljazeera.com/mritems/imagecache/mbdxxlarge/mritems/Images/2018/7/7/ad2edbbf2b2245529d9bc633c6334cfe_18.jpg "South Sudan rebel leader Machar 'refused' to sign peace deal")
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