Rule number one of border changes in the Western Balkans is that they are always about Bosnia and Herzegovina.

As the presidents of Kosovo and Serbia, Hashim Thaci and Aleksandar Vucic, are seeking the support of the EU for a “land swap” between their respective countries, one should keep in mind that talk of partition – because this is what it really is – of Kosovo is not about Kosovo, but about Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

It is somewhat ironic that Thaci and Vucic have openly broached the issue of border changes between Kosovo and Serbia on the anniversary of another attempt to carve out Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

In August 1939, the prime minister of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia, Dragisa Cvetkovic, and leading Croat politician Vladko Macek reached a deal whereby Bosnia and Herzegovina ceased to exist as a distinct political and administrative entity, with the autonomous region of Croatia annexing roughly one-third of it and the Serbian region keeping the rest. The deal is known as the Cvetkovic-Macek agreement. 

When asked after World War II about the status accorded to the Muslim population of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the deal, Macek – who is lionised in present-day Croatia as a great statesman – responded: “We agreed, when it comes to Bosnia and Muslims, to regard Muslims as if they don’t exist. And that is how we acted.”  

Whereas border changes in the Western Balkans were deemed unthinkable just a few years back, what is colloquially known as the international community seems now to be falling in line behind the Thaci-Vucic experiment. US National Security Adviser John Bolton stated recently that “Washington would not weigh in on an idea to swap territory between Serbia and Kosovo.”

Statements by EU Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn also seem to reflect this attitude. “They need to find a solution, we will look into it with an open mind. But above all, it must contribute to regional stability and the EU path of both,” he recently said. 

This change in position on land swaps in the Western Balkans basically means that the EU has decided to throw 20 years of its engagement efforts in the region out the window.

The problem is that it is doing so at a time when trouble is brewing. Whatever the details of the deal between Thaci and Vucic, part of it seems to be about Kosovo becoming a member-state of the United Nations. 

But only a few weeks ago, the president of the Bosnian Serb majority entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Milorad Dodik, said that if Kosovo is recognised by the UN and other international institutions, Bosnian Serbs will “also seek a chair” at the UN; in other words, they will pursue independence. 

This is not just empty talk. Dodik has been a Russian client for a long time. Russia, for its part, “is actively supporting indigenous political and paramilitary actors seeking to divide Bosnia and Herzegovina”, aiming to prevent the entire region from deeper integration with the West. The Russian government has been arming its police for the past few years. 

Dodik openly flaunts his ideas of secession of half of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Republika Srpska plus the town of Brcko which amounts to half of the country) and regularly refers to the entity of Republika Srpska as “the second Serb state in the Balkans”.

Over the years, he has spent millions of dollars on lobbying in Washington with the aim of breaking the consensus within the US political elite on the inviolability of Bosnian borders. A “land swap” between Kosovo and Serbia would give him the precedent he needs to pursue his secessionist goals. 

Bosnia’s other neighbour, Croatia, also has a stake in pushing for border changes in the Balkans. It has a history of pursuing the annexation of territories in Bosnia and Herzegovina with bloody policies.

In the 1990s, Croatia established a proxy “state” on Bosnian territory which pursued the creation of Greater Croatia through a brutal policy of mass murder, concentration camps and the systematic use of Muslims as forced labourers.

The political class in Croatia is completely unapologetic about it, as it is about the nation’s dark history of collaborating with the Nazis during World War II and aiding in the genocide of Jews, Roma and Serbian communists.

In addition, over the past several years, the Croatian society at large – abetted by senior figures in the Catholic Church – has been re-discovering its identity as a “cultural borderland”, defending Europe from an imagined “Islamic onslaught”. 

Both Serbia and Croatia are intensively arming. Croatia purchased Israeli F-16s, whereas Serbia obtained Russian MiG-29s. Both the Croatian and Serbian media continuously slander Bosnian Muslims and misrepresent the country as the “ISIL heartland” of Europe.

Most recently one of the leading Serbian media outlets aired a map of the region with half of Bosnia and Herzegovina depicted as part of Serbia.

The single most important lesson of the 1990s is that there is nothing manageable about border changes in the Balkans. Attempts to change the borders have always been followed by bloodshed. By endorsing the Thaci-Vucic adventure, the EU and the US have signed off on another Balkan disaster.

Once the Kosovo precedent is set, both Serb and Croat nationalists are going to turn their gaze on Bosnia and Herzegovina and its Muslim population. In other words, Bosnia and Herzegovina and its Muslims are quickly moving from Andalusia in the waiting to Andalusia in the making. 

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance. 

Robert Kyagulanyi, a Ugandan pop star-turned-opposition politician, has flown out to the United States for medical treatment following alleged torture in detention, a day after he was denied boarding, his lawyer said.

Kyagulanyi, whose stage name is Bobi Wine, left Entebbe International Airport close to midnight on Friday, his lawyer in Uganda, Nicholas Opiyo, said on Twitter.

Video posted by Opiyo showed the 36-year-old singer in his trademark red beret and carrying crutches as he was taken to the departure gate on a wheelchair, saluting and thanking supporters along the way.

“I can now confirm that Hon Bobi Wine #FreeBobiWine is on a KLM flight out of Entebbe airport. I just saw him off,” Opiyo wrote.

“He was in the company of his wife Barbie and brother Daks Sentamu,” Opiyo told AFP news agency.

I can now confirm that Hon Bobi Wine #FreeBobiWine is on a KLM flight out of Entebbe Airport. I just saw him off. We will now embark on getting Hon Zaake to leave for medical treatment too. Thank you for all your prayers and support pic.twitter.com/cHdd2tkCvA

— Nicholas Opiyo (@nickopiyo) August 31, 2018

Kyagulanyi was arrested and charged with treason in August after protesters stoned President Yoweri Museveni’s car during a by-election campaign.

His arrest sparked violent protests with his supporters saying he was badly beaten and tortured while in army custody, during and after his detention in the northwestern town of Arua on August 13, and required medical treatment abroad.

Kyagulanyi was released on bail on Monday without any travel restrictions. But was detained again by police on Thursday evening at the airport, outside the capital Kampala, his lawyers said.

Robert Amsterdam, his lawyer, told Reuters news agency on Friday that Kyagulanyi said he had been tortured again while being transported from the airport to a hospital in Kampala. 

“He was beaten … he was groaning in pain, they kept telling him to shut up,” said Amsterdam.

Police spokesperson Emilian Kayima called the allegations “fake news”.

In a statement late on Friday, Kayima said that the director of public prosecutions instructed the police to investigate allegations of torture on Kyagulanyi, a move that required that he be examined by government medical experts.

“Before this medical examination was done, the Uganda Police Force learnt of his departure yesterday, August 30,” said Kayima in the statement. “As a result, Hon. Kyagulanyi was halted from departure.”

The re-arrest of Kyagulanyi triggered fresh protests in Kampala on Friday.

People demonstrated in different parts of the city, burning tyres and piling rocks and other barricades in the middle of the roads. Police said the protests were limited and contained.

Kyagulanyi is a musician who entered politics after winning a parliamentary by-election last year. He has emerged as a formidable threat to Museveni’s 32-year rule, winning popular support through his music and strong criticism of the government.

In July, the constitution was amended to remove the presidential age limit of 75 years, meaning Museveni can run again for president in 2021.

The 74-year-old Museveni, a close US security ally, has held power since 1986.

Another legislator who was blocked on Thursday from flying to India for treatment, Francis Zaake, was still being held in a hospital Friday night.

Zaake, who was arrested along with Kyagulanyi on August 13, said he was also tortured by security forces while in detention in August. 

Images posted on social media show him lying on a bed, eyes closed, with multiple bruises on his hand and other body areas.

London, England – A new self-help book covers everything from microaggressions in the workplace and the intricacies of dating, to education and identity.

But unlike other books in the genre, Slay In Your Lane – The Black Girl Bible was written by two black British women as an attempt to not only empower, but also dissect structural racism in the UK.

One chapter opens the sensitive subject of dating as a black woman. “Preferences aren’t born in a vacuum,” says Yomi Adegoke, author and journalist.

Another section tackles the various hurdles black British women face at work in order to grow professionally.

Nine publishers fought for the book, which was released in July.

Al Jazeera spoke to Slay In Your Lane authors Adegoke and Elizabeth Uviebinene, who is a marketing manager. They are both 26 years old, have been friends for years, and are British-Nigerian.

Al Jazeera: You have mentioned reading several books that aim to empower women, such as Sheryl Sandberg’s Lean In. What was missing in them, that inspired Slay In Your Lane?

Uviebinene: Those books were written by white women … I wanted a comprehensive guide for black women in the workplace and our experiences, which are very different. There are different stereotypes and prejudices that are committed to us, just by virtue of being a black woman.

Al Jazeera: Your book covers the issue of “microaggressions”. What are examples of these, and how do you recommend overcoming them?

Uviebinene: It was empowering being able to define the different types of microaggressions, from micro-invalidations to micro-insults. 

Before a black woman gets to her desk, there are different ways that microaggressions come into play – someone questioning authority, someone assuming you can’t be a manager, someone assuming you are a lower grade.

You walk in on Monday and your hair is different to how it looked on Friday. “Your hair looks nice” is fine [as a reaction], but then you hear comments such as, “your hair is a political statement”, “your hair looks like Bob Marley’s”.

Though these comments can be light-hearted, when our days are filled with them it becomes a weight on your shoulders.

Before you do your job, you have to deal with essentially being the other.

There isn’t an exact way to overcome microaggressions, but the most important thing is to pick your battles.

Al Jazeera: There is currently a debate in the world of publishing about diversity. A few authors, such as Lionel Shriver, have claimed that writers from minority backgrounds are more likely to get book deals as publishers attempt to fulfil diversity targets. What do you say to this idea?

Uviebinene: I find it frustrating where this conversation is going and that this is what we’re talking about. I think we’re derailing and being distracted by what the actual challenges are. Publishing remains very, very white in terms of who is giving and getting deals.

Al Jazeera: You are British-Nigerian. How would you characterise Britain’s relationship with its immigrant citizens? And are there similarities with your experiences in Nigeria, as a Briton?

Adegoke: As a Nigerian-Brit with two Nigerian parents, I have been told several times – at any point when I have something negative to say about [the UK], the country I [and my mother were] born in – that I should be grateful to have been born here and live here.

I think that is illustrative of how this country sees people who have immigrated here who are not white [compared to white immigrants]. There’s a big distinction.

That gratefulness is expected because I’m thought to be somebody who has come from somewhere else where the set-up isn’t as prosperous, or because me being born here has saved me from some other [perceived] hell-hole, without them acknowledging that the majority of the problems in the country I’m from stem from Britain’s colonial rule there.

You can’t slay your way out of systemic and institutional racism, that’s why it’s important that people who aren’t black and aren’t women, and aren’t black women, are privy to the conversation as well.

Yomi Adegoke, author and journalist

The hostility comes from the idea that you are renting as opposed to living here – you are essentially trespassing and will never truly be British. If anything showed that, it was the treatment of the Windrush generation … Had that happened to white people who were en masse told they weren’t British after all, despite their passports saying so, there would be outrage.

It’s a strained relationship, it’s one where you’re asked where you’re really from. Saying you’re from Croydon, which is where I live, isn’t enough. There is always this, ‘No, but where do you really come from?’. That emphasises the fact that it certainly isn’t Britain, it isn’t England.

In Nigeria, the first thing I am called there is white. I can’t speak Yoruba. There is a lot emphasis on how different you are, but it’s not hostile. Nigerians may call me white, but they also still call me Nigerian and they claim me as Nigerian.

Elizabeth and I are going to a literary festival in Nigeria, and we’ve been invited as Nigerians. I know I’m Nigerian. There might be some teasing about my pronunciation there, but I’m considered to be home. It’s not hostile, it’s not comparable to how things are in Britain at all. It’s very different.

Al Jazeera: What do you think your book achieves?

Adegoke: I hope it has achieved awareness. People in and outside the community weren’t aware of the levels of systemic, institutional racism, and sexism – and then the combination of the two which specifically affects black women – so, mysogynoir.

There is a myth that we are subject to the same hurdles as everyone else, as white women, black men, white men, even Asian women, Asian men. It’s not better or worse, it’s different. You can’t empower yourself if you don’t know what you’re subject to.

When it comes to allies and white society, how do we move forward if people aren’t aware of what they are complicit in? Let’s forget what people are actively doing, people aren’t even aware of what they are benignly allowing to happen.

The book has allowed a conversation to take place. 

You can’t slay your way out of systemic and institutional racism, that’s why it’s important that people who aren’t black and aren’t women, and aren’t black women, are privy to the conversation as well. 

This interview was edited for clarity and brevity.

Palestinian officials have sharply criticised a US decision to halt funding to the United Nations’ agency assisting Palestine refugees across the Middle East, calling it a “flagrant assault” against Palestinian people.

The comments on Friday came shortly after the US government, a major ally of Israel, announced that it was stopping its funding to the United Nations Relief Works and Agency (UNRWA) after determining the organisation to be an “irredeemably flawed operation”.

In a statement, the US State Department’s spokesperson Heather Nauert said that UNRWA’s “endlessly and exponentially expanding community of entitled beneficiaries is simply unsustainable and has been in crisis mode for many years”.

“The administration has carefully reviewed the issue and determined that the United States will not make additional contributions to UNRWA,“ Nauert said.

The move came a week after the US announced that it was also cutting more than $200m in economic aid to Palestinians.

“The consecutive American decisions represent a flagrant assault against the Palestinian people and a defiance of UN resolutions,” Palestinian Authority spokesperson Nabil Abu Rdainah told Reuters news agency on Friday.

“Such a punishment will not succeed to change the fact that the United States no longer has a role in the region and that it is not a part of the solution.”

Al Jazeera’s Rob Reynolds, reporting from Washington, DC, said the US decision was “likely to considerably worsen an already dire situation in parts of the Palestinian territories, especially in Gaza”.

“They [the US] are justifying this largely on the grounds that the funding is mismanaged and that the agency itself wastes money and is inefficient,” Reynolds said.

“This is part and parcel, together with the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, of an effort by the Trump administration to really affect some radical changes and try to re-set the table in the Middle East.” 

UNRWA was established in 1949 after 700,000 Palestinians were forcibly displaced from their homes by Zionist paramilitaries in the run-up to the establishment of the state of Israel.

It currently provides services to five million Palestinian refugees in the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip, as well as Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.

Under the Donald Trump administration, the US government had previously slashed its budget to UNRWA operations in the occupied Palestinian territories from $365m to just $65m, resulting in work redundancies and a drop to part-time contracts for many of the agency’s Palestinian employees and full-time staffers.

In late June, the UN had asked member states to fill a critical funding gap caused by the US government’s funding cuts.

“The situation of Palestinians is defined by great anxiety and uncertainty, first because Palestinian refugees do not see a solution to their plight on the horizon,” Pierre Krahenbuhl, UNRWA’s director told a UN conference.

Earlier this week, UNRWA warned that if Washington went through with its funding cut it would likely result in greater instability in the region.

“You have to ask yourself the question: what would the Middle East look like if the most vulnerable people in that region were not to be receiving services from a UN humanitarian organisation,” agency spokesman Chris Gunness told Anadolu Agency.

The US government is also pushing for a reduction of the number of Palestinian refugees, from five million to 500,000, and count only those who were directly displaced from their homes seven decades ago.

Consequently, millions of their descendants will be excluded.

The head of the United Nations’ refugee agency (UNHCR) has warned that a potential government offensive in the last rebel-held stronghold in Syria risks causing renewed displacement and discourage others Syrians from returning home.

The comments by Filippo Grandi, the UN high commissioner for refugees, on Friday came as protesters in Idlib rallied against the threat of military action by Syrian forces and its Russian ally to capture the strategic northwest province bordering Turkey.

Idlib is home to an estimated three million people, half of whom are internally displaced after being transferred en masse to the province from other areas that fell to pro-government forces.

Grandi, who is in Lebanon after visiting Syria and  Jordan , said an all-out attack threatens to cause many civilian deaths and fresh displacement, as well as discourage the return of other refugees.

Speaking to reporters in Beirut, Grandi said an offensive was going to make the situation “very difficult” and appealed to the Syrian government to find a way forward that would “spare civilian lives”.

“You risk also sending a message to refugees that the situation is not secured,” Grandi said. “Refugees will be watching very closely what is happening in Idlib in the next few months.”

Idlib is largely controlled by Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham, which is dominated by a rebel faction that was previously known as al-Nusra Front until it cut its ties to al-Qaeda.

Turkey blacklists HTS

Turkey has been trying to avoid a large-scale assault on Idlib, primarily by utilising pledges made via the Astana diplomatic track to maintain a lasting ceasefire.

On Friday, Turkey – which has 12 military observation posts inside Idlib aimed at monitoring a de-escalation zone and backs other rebel groups in the province – officially designated HTS as a “terrorist” organisation.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters on Friday that Ankara “is trying to prevent an attack on Syria’s Idlib, which could be a disaster”.

Cavusoglu echoed Grandi in saying that a new offensive could result in a fresh wave of refugees.

“It is important for all of us to neutralise these radical groups,” he said. “But we have to distinguish the civilians from the terrorist groups.”

Intense negotiations have been under way for weeks between Russia and Turkey, which hosts some three million Syrians and has already stated that it will not open its borders to accept further refugees in the event an assault takes place.

‘Afraid of retribution’

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the Syrian government had every right to chase fighters out of Idlib.

Syrian government forces “had the full right to protect its sovereignty and to drive out, liquidate the terrorist threat on its territory”, Lavrov was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency.

He also said that negotiations are under way to establish a humanitarian corridor for civilians to be able to leave Idlib. The UN on Thursday proposed establishing the corridor, which would channel civilians to government-held areas. 

Speaking from Beirut, Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr said that the UN has reiterated its long-standing position that due to Syria’s instability, it is still premature to organise large scale refugee returns.

“These returns cannot be, in the words of the head of the UNHCR, sustainable,” she said.

Many refugees and internally displaced persons remain fearful of what awaits them in government-held areas, added Khodr.

“A lot of them are afraid of retribution,” she explained. “They fear that there are no safety guarantees in place to make sure the Syrian government does not take any measures against them simply for accusing them of supporting the opposition,” she said.

Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary suffered an inauspicious start as President Joseph Kabila‘s anointed candidate for the highest political office in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

En route to filing his candidacy on August 8, the last day of registrations for December’s long-delayed elections, Shadary found the gates guarding the electoral commission offices in the capital, Kinshasa, barred shut.

A moment of confusion ensued but Shadary, known to supporters as the “man for difficult situations”, eventually found a way through to ensure his name will be on the ballot – effectively putting to rest years of speculation about whether Kabila would seek to prolong his 17-year rule.

Shadary said at the time running for the presidency was a “great honour” and pledged to outline a “social programme” to voters in the near future.

He also praised Kabila for “keeping his word” by standing aside.

Shadary’s comments came after almost two years of political limbo caused by Kabila’s refusal to step down when his second and final constitutional term officially expired in December 2016. His move sparked violent demonstrations during which security forces killed scores of anti-government protesters, as well as donor threats to withhold aid funding for the resource-rich country.

The president’s decision to obey the two-term limit may signal the beginning of a new era in which the DRC will finally have a new president, but analysts predict little change if Shadary – a die-hard Kabila loyalist currently sanctioned by the European Union for his role in the crackdowns on protesters – wins the December 23 poll.

On the contrary, Kabila, who will be eligible to run again in 2023, is expected to keep exercising considerable power behind the scenes in the event of a Shadary win.

“Shadary is someone Kabila knows he can control,” says Georges Nzongola-Ntalaja, professor of African and Global Studies at the University of North Carolina.

“If there is no alternation of power, things are not going to change.”

Tumultuous politics

The DRC has never had a peaceful transition of power since the assassination of its first democratically elected leader, Patrice Lumumba, in 1961, one year after the country gained independence from Belgium.

Kabila took power in 2001 after the assassination of his father, Laurent-Desire Kabila, an opposition leader and former rebel who in 1997 had forced out President Mobutu Sese Seko, whose decades-long rule was marked by authoritarianism, brutality and corruption.

Joseph Kabila was declared the winner of elections in 2006 and 2011, but both polls were marred by violence and opposition allegations of widespread fraud.

The announcement on August 8 that he would not run again was welcomed by regional and international powers, but DRC’s already-tumultuous politics were complicated even further last week when electoral officials disqualified the candidacy of popular opposition leader Jean-Pierre Bemba.

In June, Bemba, a former rebel leader, was acquitted on appeal at the International Criminal Court (ICC) of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by fighters he sent to suppress a coup in neighbouring Central African Republic between October 2002 and 2003.

Following his release after 10 years in prison at The Hague, the 55-year-old received a hero’s welcome by his supporters upon his return to Kinshasa in early August to register his candidacy.

But on August 24, the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) cited a separate ICC conviction for witness-tampering to deem Bemba inadmissible – according to DRC law, people convicted of corruption are barred from running for president.

The commission’s decision can be appealed before a final list of candidates is published on September 19.

‘More of the same’

Bemba, a former vice president who finished second behind Kabila in the 2006 election, was widely tipped as a frontrunner in December’s vote.

In a rare opinion poll published by the Congo Research Group in late July, he ranked joint-first alongside opposition leaders Felix Tshisekedi, son of the late veteran politician Etienne Tshisekedi, and Moise Katumbi, a wealthy businessman who has been living in self-imposed exile since a 2016 conviction in absentia for alleged real estate fraud.

An erstwhile Kabila ally and governor of Katanga, Katumbi himself was also effectively barred from running for president after DRC’s authorities blocked his attempts to return to the country – first by airplane and then by car – and submit his candidacy before the deadline. The government subsequently issued an international arrest warrant for him on August 16.

According to Kris Berwouts, a political analyst and author of Congo’s Violent Peace: Conflict and Struggle since the Great African War, the events of the past few weeks laid bare the authorities’ intention to “organise the election in an environment which is as controlled as possible”.

“Keeping people out of the process, as they have done with Katumbi, and Bemba is reinforcing their own candidate,” Berwouts said, adding that the removal of key presidential challengers from the race cast doubt on the credibility of the election.

“This does not give many guarantees for free and fair elections.”

Nzongola-Ntalaja agreed.

“I don’t see the [possibility] that the elections are going to be free, fair, transparent and democratic,” he said, adding that upcoming poll promised “more of the same” following the votes in 2006 and 2011.

‘Regime stalwart’

Running against a curtailed opposition could prove critical to Shadary’s performance in the election, given that he remains relatively unknown outside the country’s political circles.

Shadary was born in the DRC’s eastern Maniema province in November 1960. He went on to study political science, first in Lubumbashi and then in Kinshasa, before being appointed in 1998 Maniema governor by then-President Laurent-Desire Kabila.

Four years later, Shadary co-founded the People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) alongside Joseph Kabila, and has since proceeded to hold several roles in the party.

“Shadary is a creature of the Kabilas, both Lauren and Joseph,” Reuben Loffman, a lecturer in African history at UK-based Queen Mary University of London, told Al Jazeera.

“He is a very loyal, regime stalwart for the PPRD and latterly the FCC … and seen as a safe bet in terms of someone who will protect people from the international community,” Loffman said, referring to the ruling Common Front for Congo (FCC) coalition.

“For the PPRD and the Kabila camp, protection is absolutely crucial,” he added.

In February, after serving as the government’s interior minister for 13 months, Shadary was appointed permanent secretary of the PPRD, marking an elevation to the upper echelons of party politics and government.

During his time at the interior ministry, he oversaw several crackdowns on anti-government protesters, especially after Kabila’s refusal to step down as president. Last year, the European Union hit him with an asset freeze and travel ban for his involvement “in planning, directing, or committing acts that constitute serious human rights violations in DRC”.

“The regime has deployed repression and he has been part of that,” Berwouts said.

“He [Shadary] is someone within the regime machinery with his own power base,” he added. “[But] If the party wants to go to the election and win, there is immense work to do to sell him to the public,” he added.

According to Loffman, Shadary’s “instrumental” role in the suppression of opposition could mean he struggles to concoct a convincing narrative on which to campaign for support.

“Opposition politicians have stories; Felix Tshisekedi can call on his father’s legacy of opposition and Jean-Pierre Bemba can, albeit controversially, call on fighting in the Second Congo War,” he said.

“But Shadary is tainted by the past … his story seems to be ‘I have been oppressing you for a long time, please let me continue to oppress you’” he added, noting that Shadary’s candidacy is particularly jarring when weighed against the decision to ban Bemba from the vote.

“Bemba still has this outlying conviction, and I think it’s problematic, but given the fact that Shadary has sanctions against him it’s kind of glass houses and stones, I think there is a lot of political motivation and that the election commission is acting under a lot of pressure from the regime,” Loffman said.

‘Firefighting’

All of the candidates permitted to run for the presidency will have to confront a daunting set of issues currently afflicting the DRC, the world’s leading cobalt producer and Africa’s top copper miner.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says 13.1 million people are in need of aid throughout the DRC and 4.5 million others are internally displaced – the highest number among all African countries.

In particular, violence in the southern Kasai region and throughout the Kivu provinces in the eastern DRC has left the country reeling under several ongoing security and humanitarian crises.

According to Human Rights Watch, more than 100 armed groups are operating in North and South Kivu, which, combined, border Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi.

Meanwhile, northern Kivu province has been hit by the country’s latest Ebola crisis – its 10th since 1976 – leaving health authorities scrambling for a response amid the “active conflict” zone.

The DRC’s turmoil has contributed to the fact that despite its vast natural resources and some 80m hectares of arable land, the country still ranks among the 11 poorest countries in the world.

“The level of violence, and the fact that there is an Ebola crisis going on, is going to mean in effect a lot of the election is about firefighting,” Loffman said.