“This game is a long way from over,” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) said of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo
Democrats have an uphill battle in blocking Kavanaugh’s confirmation. But they can still eke out minor victories.
Brett Kavanaugh will step into the grueling national spotlight of a Supreme Court confirmation hearing on Tuesday. But the Democratic senators he’ll face are under intense pressure of their own — to make the best of a bleak political predicament.
With Kavanaugh considered likely to win confirmation absent a major misstep, Democrats must keep pushing against long odds while carving out an upside to potential defeat. They’re readying an intense volley of questions for the 53-year-old appellate court judge on hot-button liberal issues from abortion to the Russia probe and aim to creating viral social media moments from particularly controversial exchanges in the hopes of chipping away at Kavanaugh’s credibility.
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“This game is a long way from over,” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) said in an interview last week. “In fact, we haven’t really gone out on the field yet.”
Republicans are likely to have a 51-49 margin in the Senate by the time Kavanaugh comes to a final vote, thanks to the imminent announcement of a replacement for the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). That would mean Democrats have to stay united and pick off two GOP votes in order to defeat Kavanaugh — a tall order, despite their success in driving down public polling on the nominee.
Even if Democrats can’t quash Kavanaugh’s confirmation, though, they know they’ll have to walk away from the fight with the minor victory of weakening Kavanaugh’s public persona and forcing Republicans to come up with the votes to approve him before a single one of their members comes off the fence.
To help make that happen, they’ve elevated three central arguments against Kavanaugh: abortion rights, casting his past stances as a threat to Roe v. Wade; health care, given a Trump administration-backed challenge to Obamacare that’s expected to reach the Supreme Court; and executive power, focusing on his likelihood of siding with Trump in any future legal showdown with special counsel Robert Mueller.
But that’s not the only line of attack they’re planning. Democrats are also interested in whether Kavanaugh may have misled the committee during his appeals court confirmation hearing on his involvement in controversial Bush-era detainee policy.
“Senate Democrats will press Kavanaugh on his previous statements in past hearings, using evidence that subsequently came to light that he was not truthful with the committee,” one Senate Democratic aide said, addressing internal strategy on condition of anonymity. “It will be part of a narrative that his trustworthiness and judgment should be in serious question.”
The party is also teeing up sharp questions on guns, labor, and campaign finance, among other issues. As Whitehouse put it, “there’s no master plan” when it comes to which Democrats will tackle specific issues, “but I think we all talk to each other and we all know a little bit who has issues that are of particular concern to them.”
“I know I’m not going to need to ask [Kavanaugh] ‘have you ever been involved in a #metoo episode’,” Whitehouse added, because Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) has made sexual misconduct in the judiciary a core focus on the committee.
Indeed, Hirono and the top Judiciary Democrat, California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, have vowed to press Kavanaugh on his close relationship with disgraced former Judge Alex Kozinski, who resigned last year amid multiple sexual harassment allegations.
Democrats plan to run a real-time rapid-response operation throughout next week’s hearing, designed to amplify their message on key issues and help particularly notable back-and-forths with senators go viral, according to another senior aide.
Top Democrats have spent weeks battling the GOP over access to Kavanaugh’s records, a process-driven case that’s failed to win over the moderates in both parties who could hold the nominee’s fate in their hands. That doesn’t mean they’re going to stop talking about the flap.
“I’m still very focused on documents,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said in an interview last week. “I think it is absolutely outrageous that 94 percent of all the documents from his White House experience have been completely denied to us, even though he called it the most instructive period of his career.”
Asked if the Democratic documents push has broken through, Blumenthal admitted: “I don’t know. I don’t think this nomination has been in the forefront of people’s minds right now.”
But Democrats got new cause to protest the exclusion of potentially critical documents from the hearing late Friday, when Bill Burck — who’s leading the team reviewing Kavanaugh’s documents from his time in the George W. Bush administration, where he also formerly worked under Kavanaugh — told senators that the Trump administration had asserted executive privilege to shield more than 100,000 pages of records.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) fumed in a statement that the administration’s protection of those documents “has all the makings of a cover-up.”
The minority started with a poor hand, with three of its red-state members up for reelection having voted for Trump-tapped Justice Neil Gorsuch last year. Schumer’s strategy since has focused on keeping his most politically imperiled Democrats from showing their hand early in the battle, heightening scrutiny of swing-vote GOP Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.
Yet none of those moderates have echoed their leaders’ process arguments on documents. Collins sent positive signals after her meeting with Kavanaugh. And the left is getting frustrated enough to prod Democrats, allying on a campaign designed to force minority-party senators into a more public show of unity against Kavanaugh even before his hearing.
Ask Democrats to acknowledge the long-shot battle they face, and they’ll focus on the broader consequences of the nomination. Kavanaugh, who became the youngest sitting appeals court judge in 2006, is benefiting from a well-oiled GOP advocacy machine that has helped the party long dominate judicial wars, and Democrats are still struggling to catch up.
“You know … really conservative forces have been doing this and setting the stage for decades,” Hirono said in a brief interview. “We have to stay the course.”
Republicans, for their part, are increasingly confident that Trump’s second high court nominee in two years will advance to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy, a much-watched swing vote on issues from the president’s travel ban to same-sex marriage.
“I know that Democrats feel bad they didn’t get the presidency, where they could put their own people on there,” Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) told reporters last week. “But they’ve got to wake up and realize, he is a really fine man.”
Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) said last week last week that he didn’t foresee “any gaffes” from Kavanaugh, whose extensive pre-hearing drills included a mock hearing where Hatch played chairman.
“I think the handwriting is on the wall,” Cornyn said. “I think he’ll get confirmed pretty handily.”
The three red-state Democrats facing tough reelections who voted for Gorsuch, Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), and Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), as well as Collins and Murkowski, are expected to wait until after the hearing week concludes before announcing their decisions on Kavanaugh. Republicans who had initially acknowledged a final confirmation vote might slip into October, after the Supreme Court term starts, are now bullish about a final vote before month’s end.
Liberal activists who went on the road this summer raising awareness Kavanaugh’s threats to Roe have become increasingly restive about the lack of more vocal resistance from a Democratic caucus that mounted a procedural blockade last year to slow down the GOP’s progress on an Obamacare repeal that ultimately failed.
More than a dozen progressive groups have rolled out a “Whip the Vote” push to force Senate Democrats into total unity against Kavanaugh, effectively splitting the base’s attention between Collins and Murkowski and Democrats’ own more centrist members. The left groaned again last week when Schumer and McConnell agreed to expedite passage of seven Trump judicial nominees, a package that included two Democratic-backed picks.
Brian Fallon, a former Schumer aide who now leads the liberal judicial advocacy group Demand Justice, lamented the “awful deal” that illustrated “how compliant Democrats have been in terms of helping McConnell pass these judges.”
“If Democrats were treating the Kavanaugh nomination with the proper amount of urgency,” Fallon said in an interview, “they would be united right now in opposition to Kavanaugh — or would at least be united in complaining about the process fouls and rushed confirmation Republicans are conducting.”
Head coach Doug Pederson announced the decision Monday, saying it was in the “best interest” of the reigning Super Bowl champions.
Wentz, who suffered a torn ACL in December, stated throughout the rehab process his goal was to return in time for the season opener. The most recent update from Pederson confirmed the 2017 MVP candidate hadn’t been cleared for contact, though.
“I don’t know how many times I can answer this question,” Pederson told reporters Sunday. “When they clear him, he’ll be cleared.”
Wentz, 25, completed 60.2 percent of his throws for 3,296 yards, 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions across 13 appearances before the knee injury last season. The second overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft added 64 carries for 299 yards.
Foles struggled in relief of the North Dakota State product during the regular season. He posted a 56.4 percent completion rate for 537 yards with five TDs and two picks in seven games (three starts).
The 29-year-old Texas native found another gear during the Eagles’ Super Bowl run, though.
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He connected on 72.6 percent of his attempts en route to 971 yards and six touchdowns across the team’s three playoff games. He capped the postseason with three TD passes and a TD catch in Philadelphia’s thrilling 41-33 victory over the New England Patriots to earn Super Bowl MVP honors.
“It doesn’t matter if it’s first-, second-, third-, fourth-, fifth-string snaps—any time you get a snap and get to go out there and practice, you build a database of information,” Foles told reporters in July. “Good, bad, whatever it may be, just the ability to be out there feeling great, healthy—it’s a wonderful thing.”
He added: “Really focusing on what I have to do right now … no matter what role I’m playing. It alleviates everything around me and makes everything a lot more simple.”
Ultimately, Wentz didn’t have enough time to gain full clearance, so the Eagles are handing the keys to the offense back to Foles. The key question is whether his play will be closer to his performance during last year’s regular season or playoffs.
It’s uncertain when Wentz will be cleared to return, but the offensive unit possesses far more upside when he’s on the field, so he should slot right back in as the starter when healthy. Foles should keep the talent-laden roster competitive until then, though.
As it turns out, neither the veteran stopgap signee nor the first-round pick will be under center when the Bills open their regular season against the Baltimore Ravens on Sept. 9.
Instead, head coach Sean McDermott has decided to let Nathan Peterman captain the offense following one of the most underwhelming starting debuts in NFL history a season ago, the team announced Monday.
A 2017 fifth-round pick, Peterman was thrust into action after the Bills abruptly benched Tyrod Taylor last November—and the results were disastrous.
In his first career start, Peterman went 6-of-14 for 66 yards with five first-half interceptions against the Los Angeles Chargers. By season’s end, the Pittsburgh product completed 49.0 percent of his passes for 252 yards, two touchdowns and five picks.
However, the 24-year-old made improvements throughout the offseason and worked with QB guru Tom House to help refine his mechanics.
Those tweaks helped Peterman impress with 119 yards and a touchdown on 9-of-10 passing in Buffalo’s preseason opener, and his stock continued to climb as the Bills ramped up preparations for the regular season.
His progress and Allen’s status as the QB of the future led Buffalo to trade McCarron to the Oakland Raiders on Saturday for a 2019 fifth-round pick.
Now offered a chance at redemption, Peterman will be tasked with leading a Bills offense that features a group of skill-position players highlighted by running back LeSean McCoy and No. 1 receiver Kelvin Benjamin.
Based on recent history, though, it won’t be surprising if McDermott keeps Peterman on a short leash with Allen waiting in the wings.
Washington, DC – Republican Congressman Mike Bost’s big political moment this election year came in July when he and President Donald Trump toured the Granite City Steel Works near St Louis in the American heartland.
The president, appearing at a rally with Bost and other Illinois congressional Republicans, touted his steel tariffs and promised to bring industrial jobs back to the Midwest.
People in Illinois’ 12th district voted 55-40 percent for Trump over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Yet Bost, a Republican who has embraced Trump, is in a tight race for reelection this year.
“This is a competitive race that leans maybe slightly Republican is the way I would rate it,” said John Jackson, a political science professor at the Paul Simon Institute of Public Policy at the University of Southern Illinois in Carbondale, Ill.
One telling sign, the Granite City steelworkers union threw their support to Bost’s Democrat challenger, Brendan Kelly, a former state prosecutor and political moderate.
On November 6, some 80 million Americans – perhaps more depending on turnout – will cast ballots for all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives where Republicans now hold a 23-seat majority.
Historically called “midterm” elections, the vote is essentially a referendum on the party of the president whose performance in office is watched closely.
“Trump’s job approval is one of the critical factors and thus there is some reason to believe a Democratic wave is coming,” Jackson told Al Jazeera.
Recent polls show American voters increasingly hold negative views of the president. Sixty percent of registered voters in an August 29 Washington Post-ABC News poll disapproved of the job the president is doing, up from 54 percent in April.
Democrat revival?
Now, as Republicans begin their reelection campaigns in earnest, most analysts are predicting Democrats will gain control of the House, an outcome that would match historic norms.
“My forecast is that the Democrats will pick up a net of about 30 House seats. I don’t see a huge wave. But I think they will take the House,” said Greg Valliere, chief global strategist and Washington analyst at Horizon Investments LLC, a financial advisory firm.
Republican losses, however, easily could be higher depending on the depth of a potential backlash against Trump.
Republicans face credible challenges from Democrats in 62 congressional districts while Democrats face competition in only four, according to The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan publisher of US political analysis.
In California, affluent suburban voters in Orange County have historically provided Republicans a reliable base of support. Not so this year.
“We used to be the county that Ronald Reagan said all good Republicans go to die,” Dan Chmielewski, publisher of TheLiberalOC, an Orange County political blog, told Al Jazeera.
“Hillary won Orange Country in 2016, the first time a Democrat has taken this county since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. There are significant cities that have voter registrations that are majority Democrat now,” he said.
‘House battlefield’
Three Orange County Republicans face Democratic challengers in races analysts rate as toss ups.
In the agricultural San Joaquin and San Fernando valleys, where Hispanics make up one-third or more of voters and Trump’s anti-immigrant policies hurt migrant workers, two more Republicans face competitive races.
In particular, Representative Dana Rohrbacher, now in his 15th term as a congressman, faces criticism at home for his connections to Russians amid the US Department of Justice’s special investigation into Trump’s campaign and potential collusion with Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.
Rohrbacher blames a “deep state” conspiracy for the investigation of Trump and says he doubts the veracity of criminal charges brought against Russians by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
Rohrbacher’s opponent Harley Rouda has aggressively tied him to Trump and argued the Republican has failed to hold the president accountable, a campaign theme that plays well in California.
Nationwide, a combination of demographic change and disaffection with Trump’s brand of politics – particularly among suburban white, college-educated women – has created a challenge for incumbent House Republicans who four years ago might have counted on easy reelections.
“The House battlefield is largely in districts that either Clinton won, or where Trump didn’t really run that far ahead. There are a lot of suburban districts where they like Republicans but maybe not a Republican like Trump,” Kyle Kondik, who analyzes House races for the University of Virginia Center on Politics, told Al Jazeera. “And so I don’t think the president is an asset.”
‘Gift to the wealthy’
Democrats have led Republicans in national congressional preference polls all year. The average spread has widened recently to 8.4 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.com.
House races in Texas are emblematic both of the depth of Republican troubles this year and how American politics are shifting at the grassroots level in response to Trump.
Representative John Culberson has held the wealthy Texas 7th district in suburban Houston for 18 years. It’s a district once held by former President George HW Bush when he began his political career. Today it is more diverse with a population that is 44 percent White, 32 percent Hispanic, 13 percent Black, and 10 percent Asian.
Culberson now faces a tough challenge by Democrat Lizzie Fletcher, a relatively inexperienced, progressive liberal who is focusing her campaign on organising local turnout and resentment about the federal response to Hurricane Harvey, a Category 4 storm that caused $125bn in damage.
A senior member of the House committee that doles out federal money, Culberson played a key role in delivering billions in federal aid to Texas after Harvey but hasn’t been personally visible in the district. Like many other Republicans, his hopes of campaigning on the popularity of a huge tax cut enacted in 2017 under Trump have fallen flat.
“An awful lot of Republicans thought the tax cuts would be a major plus for them in the election,” Valliere said. “We’ve seen a lot of Republicans abandoning campaign advertising, bragging about the tax cuts. People, especially the Trump base, feel that the tax cuts were a gift to the very wealthy and the corporations.”
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Unpopular policies
Other pieces of the Republican agenda in Congress have proved unpopular, particularly the 2017 repeal of Obamacare, the 2010 Affordable Care Act that set up mandated health insurance markets designed to cut costs and make healthcare more accessible for Americans.
In Illinois, Bost was forced to discontinue holding town hall meetings to avoid irate constituents.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, which is the political arm of the House Republican party, adopted the theme “Protecting Our Historic Republican Majority” in its campaign and fundraising communications. One by one, it is attempting to paint Democrats as “radical leftists” opposed to “conservative values”.
But without a popular national platform, the anti-Trump political climate has left Republicans scrambling to play on local issues or, in some cases, use dirty tricks to smear Democrat opponents.
In Virginia’s 7th district, defined by suburbs of the state capital Richmond, Tea Party darling Dave Brat is in a tough fight against Democrat challenger Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA operative whose security clearance application was improperly leaked by a political group tied to Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan.
Ryan’s working-class Wisconsin district outside of Milwaukee was carried by Trump 53-42 percent over Clinton in 2016. He announced in April he would not seek reelection, one of 39 House Republicans choosing to retire rather than face voters this year.
“There’s where the Achilles heel in the Trump movement is,” Jackson said.
Thursday night, the Atlanta Falcons begin their quest to become the first team in the Super Bowl era to play in a “home” Super Bowl. The Philadelphia Eagles start theirs to become the first team in over a decade to repeat as champions.
On Sunday and Monday, 30 more teams begin quests all their own. Some simply seek respectability. Others still hope for a postseason berth. And the fortunate ones have their sights squarely set on Mercedes-Benz Stadium and Super Bowl LIII.
As they’ve done every week throughout the preseason, Bleacher Report NFL analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon and Brent Sobleski have gathered to slot the league’s teams from worst to first. No. 32 to No. 1. Outhouse to penthouse.
Here’s whom they see as the favorites to reach Atlanta…and the favorites for the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NFL draft.
Note: If two or more teams were tied in the aggregate ranking, the one with the highest individual ranking received the highest rank. If teams were tied in highest individual ranking as well, the team with better Super Bowl odds atOddsShark“won” the tie.
1 of 32
Brynn Anderson/Associated Press
High: 30
Low: 32
Last Week: 32
This has the makings of a very long season in Miami.
In 2017, the Dolphins were a bottom-five team in both points scored and points allowed. And while Miami gets starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill back this season, it’s hard to identify exactly where marked improvement in either regard is going to come from.
Yes Tannehill’s back. But Miami’s receiving corps isn’t exactly loaded with talent—especially with DeVante Parker nursing a broken finger. Kenny Stills is a capable pro. What he isn’t is a No. 1 wideout. Danny Amendola was great five years and 11 injuries ago.
The Dolphins were 29th in the NFL in rushing last year, and the team’s biggest offseason addition in that regard is 57-year-old Frank Gore.
Admittedly, things were worse than that until Kenyan Drake came on down the stretch. But Drake hasn’t shown in college or the pros (yet) that he can handle a heavy workload over an entire season.
And once you get past him and old man Frank on the depth chart, it gets pretty ugly pretty quick.
Miami will get an early chance to prove us wrong. It opens the season at home against a Tennessee Titans club that was a playoff team last year but is hardly a juggernaut.
Notch a win there, and Miami might be able to climb out of the basement in these rankings.
Look at the bright side. There’s nowhere to go but up.
2 of 32
Chris O’Meara/Associated Press
High: 29
Low: 31
Last Week: 31
The good news for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is that quarterback Jameis Winston looked razor-sharp in the preseason.
The bad news is that Winston’s three-game suspension means he won’t see the field again until Week 4—and by then, the Buccaneers may well already be in a hole.
Tampa appears to have angered the scheduling gods, because the stretch of games the team will play without Winston is brutal. The Buccaneers open the season with three straight games against division winners from last year: at New Orleans and then home against the Philadelphia Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers.
That’s Drew Brees followed by the defending Super Bowl champions followed by the best trio of offensive stars in the NFL—going up against a Tampa defense that ranked 32nd in the NFL in 2017.
The only chance the Bucs have in those games is to win a shootout. They aren’t doing that with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback.
0-3, here they come.
3 of 32
Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press
High: 27
Low: 31
Last Week: 30
The Buffalo Bills started out several slots higher in these power rankings. But as the preseason progressed, the Bills didn’t look good—and their slide to No. 30 began.
To be fair, not all of the analysts here at Bleacher Report are willing to completely write off the Bills just yet, including Brad Gagnon:
“I see my colleagues have moved the Bills down quite a lot in August. I may join them based on what happens in September, but this is a 2017 playoff team with good pieces on both sides of the ball and a strong coaching staff. I don’t think they’re winning the Super Bowl, but I’m not ready to write their eulogy in the first week of September.”
The Bills did indeed advance to the postseason last year. But that was with Tyrod Taylor and an offensive line that was at least marginally competent.
Taylor’s gone. So are three of those starters up front.
And if Buffalo’s poor showing against Cincinnati in a dress-rehearsal loss is any indication, the latter’s a massive problem.
4 of 32
Al Pereira/Getty Images
High: 27
Low: 31
Last Week: 29
It’s Sam Darnold’s show.
After a solid preseason, there was very little doubt that the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 draft was going to be the Week 1 starter for the Jets. Those shreds were removed as soon as the Jets shipped Teddy Bridgewater to New Orleans for a draft pick.
It’s a move that ratcheted up the optimism for New York’s beleaguered fanbase—hope that the team may finally have found the quarterback it’s been searching for since, well, just about forever. In fairness, Darnold’s shown flashes of what he’s capable of as a passer in the preseason, and in Isaiah Crowell, Bilal Powell, Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa, he has some talent at his disposal both on the ground and through the air offensively.
But there are going to be ups and downs with a first-year signal-caller. There’s also going to be a lot of pressure on a quarterback known for turning the ball over in college to match scores with opponents. On the other side of the ball, all three levels of New York’s defense have issues, chief among them the apparent lack of any real pass rush.
If this team surpasses last year’s five wins with Darnold at the helm, he’s a shoo-in for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
That isn’t likely to happen, though.
5 of 32
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images
High: 26
Low: 29
Last Week: 28
It’s possible that the Arizona Cardinals are better than they’re getting credit for from this panel.
The offense has some talent—an explosive tailback in David Johnson and one of the best wide receivers to ever lace them up in Larry Fitzgerald. Sam Bradford is a capable veteran quarterback who, when healthy, is one of the league’s most accurate passers.
Arizona’s defense looked good in the preseason—really good. Over the first three weeks of the preseason alone, the Cardinals forced 16 turnovers—including eight in a blowout win over Dallas in the dress rehearsal.
But Bradford’s had all sorts of problems staying healthy. His odds of doing so behind an O-line that led the NFC with 52 sacks allowed last year aren’t especially good. And all those exhibition takeaways won’t matter one bit once Arizona takes the field against the Washington Redskins in a game that counts.
If things break the right way, Arizona could be set for an early move up these rankings. But for now, the team has enough questions surrounding it to bring up the back end of the NFC West.
6 of 32
Paul Sancya/Associated Press
High: 22
Low: 32
Last Week: 27
Over the last three seasons, the Cleveland Browns have redefined the concept of athletic futility. Since the dawn of the 2015 season, the Browns have won four games—and lost 44.
However, there’s renewed optimism in 2018 that a remade Browns roster might actually be competitive. Bleacher Report NFL analyst Brent Sobleski is on board with the idea:
“A strong preseason effort thanks to a much-improved roster makes Cleveland one of the league’s most intriguing squads. The Browns finally have legitimate talent at quarterback, and the offense is only going to get better with Josh Gordon’s return. The first-team defense, especially Myles Garrett, played dominant football during stretches as well. Remember, though, the Browns finished 4-0 last preseason before completing the NFL’s second-ever 0-16 campaign.”
That caveat at the end echoes Davenport’s feelings about the team.
“Are the Browns better?” Davenport asked. “Yes. But until I see a team that’s 1-31 over the last two seasons win a game that actually matters, Cleveland slots at No. 32.”
7 of 32
Joe Robbins/Getty Images
High: 24
Low: 28
Last Week: 26
There’s renewed hope in Indy after a miserable 2017 season, a sense that maybe the Colts’ luck is changing.
So to speak.
However, as one AFC South general manager told SB Nation’s Thomas George, Andrew Luck‘s shoulder injury and lost season remain a dark cloud over the Colts:
“Sure, he has the tools, but that injury, anytime you start dealing with mechanics, the main mechanism, the arm for a quarterback, that is suspect and scary stuff. They’ve got to protect him, get him a running game and find him a weapon that he can count on, a go-to-guy. Nobody has any clue if he will ever be like he was.”
No team in the NFL surrendered more sacks in 2017 than the Colts. If the team allows close to that number (56) again, Luck’s going to take a beating. First-round rookie Quenton Nelson looks like the real deal at guard, but unless he can play all five line positions at once, he can’t fix Indy’s issues at both tackle spots.
You know…the guys tasked with keeping defensive ends off of Luck.
If one of Indy’s tailbacks is going to emerge as a dependable runner who will take pressure off Luck, we’ve seen no sign of it.
Frank Gore is gone. Marlon Mack is hurt. The biggest red flag about the Colts ground game (or lack thereof) might be that Christine “Frequent Flyer Miles” Michael made it onto the 53-man roster.
Luck’s a very good young signal-caller (or at least he was pre-injury). But there’s precious little around him. T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle…
And pain.
8 of 32
Joe Scarnici/Getty Images
High: 23
Low: 26
Last Week: 22
The Raiders took a last-minute dip in these power rankings for some mysterious reason.
It’s almost as if the team traded its best player or something.
The blockbuster deal that sent edge-rusher Khalil Mack to the Chicago Bears netted the Raiders a package of picks that included two first-rounders. It also cost Oakland the team’s best player and one of the most disruptive defenders in all of football.
For Davenport, it was the last straw for the Raiders in an offseason that’s been surreal:
“Granted, Jon Gruden inherited an Oakland team that had its flaws. But to date, it appears that all Gruden’s done is create new ones. The defense wasn’t good with Mack. Without him, it’s hot garbage. Maybe he’s such a mastermind that we mere mortals can’t comprehend his brilliance, but so far, the goal of Gruden’s master plan seems to be a commitment to excrement. I’m pretty sure that’s not Oakland’s motto.”
9 of 32
Rick Osentoski/Associated Press
High: 20
Low: 26
Last Week: 23
It wasn’t an especially good preseason for the Detroit Lions.
It’s not that Detroit went 1-3. It’s not exactly a big deal to lose three games that don’t matter. But in going 1-3, the Lions starters looked choppy on both sides of the ball. The offense was out of sync and didn’t run the ball much better than last year. The defense (new head coach Matt Patricia’s specialty) was gashed with regularity…especially up the gut.
That is cause for concern in a division with a Super Bowl favorite, a perennial contender getting back its superstar quarterback and a team that just swung the most aggressive trade we’ve seen in several years.
Throw it all together and, per Sobleski, you have the makings of a last-place team:
“Matt Patricia’s initial phase with the Detroit Lions hasn’t gone well. As the rest of the division continues to improve (*cough* Khalil Mack *cough*), the Lions’ effort throughout the preseason can be described as lackluster at best. As the team transitions under new supervision, it’s falling behind everyone else in the NFC North.”
Gagnon and Davenport are marginally higher on Detroit, but all three analysts now have the Lions as the No. 4 team in their division.
10 of 32
Patrick Smith/Getty Images
High: 19
Low: 25
Last Week: 24
It’s fair to say Adrian Peterson wasn’t expected to be the center of attention in Washington as the NFL season got underway.
But that’s what has happened. Signed recently by the Redskins after the team was hit hard by injuries during the preseason, Peterson made headlines last week by firing back at critics who questioned how much the veteran tailback has left in the tank.
“What I’m going to do when I ball out this year,” Peterson said via Liz Roscher of Yahoo Sports. “I’m going to have all my fans … look up all the people who [said] something negative about me and put them on blast and prove that when they are on TV, they don’t know what they’re talking about.”
The thing is, it’s not unfair to question Peterson’s ability to lead one of the NFL’s most anemic rushing attacks. Not after Peterson managed just 3.4 yards a carry between the New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals in 2017.
And if Washington can’t run the ball (again), the offense is going to sputter—Alex Smith just doesn’t have enough passing-game assets to carry the team. Good though Chris Thompson may be (and he was last year before breaking his leg) he’s a complement. Not the kind of player who will carry an offense. Much the same can be said for slot man Jamison Crowder.
Washington didn’t pay Smith all that money to be a “game manager.” But without a running game to keep defenses honest in tight or a reliable vertical threat to do the same over the top, he isn’t going to have a choice.
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Brett Carlsen/Getty Images
High: 18
Low: 28
Last Week: 25
The Ohio teams certainly appear to inspire disagreement among the NFL analysts here at Bleacher Report. Just as with the Cleveland Browns, there’s a large spread between the high and low rankings for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Gagnon is skeptical that this year’s incarnation of the Bengals is any better than last year’s squad:
“Don’t read deeply into the Bengals’ decent preseason. They might be the worst team in one of the worst divisions in the NFL. They’re nothing without Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, but Dalton isn’t special anyway. The offensive line is garbage, the defense isn’t what it used to be and they’re praying that a bunch of questionable young players will come through. Worst of all, the front office seems satisfied. They hardly participate in free agency and they’re sticking with the same old head coach. Things will get worse before they get better.”
Davenport, however, sees the potential for a rebound year:
“I don’t know that Cincy’s O-line will be able to maintain the level of play I saw in the preseason. But if it can, this is a team that could surprise some people. Give Andy Dalton some time to throw the ball and he can hurt you, and the Bengals defensive front has looked phenomenal.”
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Patrick Smith/Getty Images
High: 21
Low: 23
Last Week: 21
The Denver Broncos are something of a puzzle.
Over the first two preseason games, it looked like the team would live to regret handing Case Keenum a fat ball of cash. But in Denver’s dress-rehearsal win over Washington, Keenum looked a lot more like the quarterback who led the Minnesota Vikings to the NFC Championship Game last year.
Which Keenum shows up for the season opener against Seattle (and the weeks that follow) will go a long way toward determining how long the Broncos stick around in a wide-open AFC West. It’s not the only question mark facing the team (the O-line, running game and Aqib Talib-less secondary among them), but it’s the highest-profile one.
If Keenum builds on last year’s success and those other uncertainties break the right way (just start Royce Freeman at running back…please), the Broncos could win 10-11 games and their division.
But a lot of dominoes have to fall for that to happen—too many, in the eyes of our analysts, apparently.
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Joe Robbins/Getty Images
High: 17
Low: 22
Last Week: 20
The Seattle Seahawks are an abject lesson in the NFL standing for “not for long.”
At this time a year ago, the Seahawks were still viewed as one of the leading contenders to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They were the New England Patriots of the conference—a team that was not only good but consistently so over a period of several years. Seattle won a Super Bowl and should have won a second.
Just run the ball, Pete.
Fast-forward one year, and the Seahawks look like an also-ran. An eight- or nine-win team, tops.
The offensive line isn’t good. A Seattle club defined by running the ball for years can’t consistently. The Legion of Boom defense is a shell of its once-fearsome self. Richard Sherman. Michael Bennett. Cliff Avril. All gone. Earl Thomas might as well be—his contentious holdout shows no signs of resolution anytime soon. And Kam Chancellor, the enforcer who held the defense together, unofficially retired in July when a neck injury left him medically unfit to return to the field.
Yes, the Seahawks still have Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin. But the latter’s already banged up, and the former can only do so much himself. Especially with his favorite red-zone target last year (Jimmy Graham) now catching passes from Aaron Rodgers.
It was a great run. But that run is over.
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Elsa/Getty Images
High: 15
Low: 23
Last Week: 19
It’s a good time to be Odell Beckham. Or his agent. Or the guy who cleans his pool.
After signing a five-year, $90 million extension that makes him the highest-paid wide receiver in football, Beckham’s future with Big Blue is set. It was a positive jolt for a Giants team that desperately wants to wash off last year’s stink as soon as humanly possible.
However, among all the “attaboys,” there have already been reasons for concern. Tailback Saquon Barkley missed most of the preseason with a hamstring pull. Second-year tight end Evan Engram also missed time with a concussion. Ditto for edge-rusher Olivier Vernon thanks to a sprained ankle. And a retooled Giants line that was supposed to be vastly improved was shaky at times.
If the line solidifies, and his horses get healthy, Eli Manning has a top-five wideout, rising young tight end and explosive, do-it-all tailback to work with. That’s not too shabby at all.
But if that line can’t get it together, Manning could be in for another rough year. If Vernon misses regular-season games, the Giants will be left without much to speak of where proven pass-rushers are concerned.
And if guys keep going down, 2018 could be a repeat of the season before, when the Giants were just shredded by injuries on offense.
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Joe Robbins/Getty Images
High: 18
Low: 19
Last Week: 17
Something about the AFC North makes B/R NFL analysts disagreeable, apparently. Just like the Browns and Bengals, there’s a wide gap between the high and low rankings for the Baltimore Ravens—a whopping 12 spots between the low man (Gagnon) and the high one (Davenport).
Davenport has consistently ranked the Ravens higher than his counterparts, and he said the preseason only strengthened his belief that Baltimore is a better team than many think:
“Granted, it’s a small sample size (16 pass attempts over two games). But Baltimore’s selection of Lamar Jackson in April’s draft certainly appears to have lit a fire under Joe Flacco. Flacco hit on three-quarters of his preseason attempts, threw a pair of scoring strikes with no picks and posted a passer rating of over 140. That pace isn’t sustainable. But if Flacco rebounds this year, the Ravens could be a real player in the AFC North. This is a team that can run the ball and play defense. Give them some balance on offense, and Baltimore’s postseason drought may just end.”
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Michael Zagaris/Getty Images
High: 16
Low: 18
Last Week: 16
The absolute worst case for any team is for a big injury to strike just days before the regular season kicks off. It’s why none of the starters are on the field for the preseason finale.
Well, someone in San Francisco opened an umbrella inside. Broke a mirror. Something. Because the 49ers were dealt a crushing blow just before heading to Minnesota to take on the Vikings in Week 1.
Per ESPN.com’s Nick Wagoner, on the final play of San Francisco’s practice session Saturday, starting tailback Jerick McKinnon suffered a torn right ACL in a non-contact injury. He just planted his foot, went to cut and whammo. Season over.
McKinnon was brought in over the offseason on a four-year, $30 million contract to serve as Kyle Shanahan’s West Coast version of Devonta Freeman. Now, the Niners will be forced to hand the keys to the ground game over to second-year all-purpose back Matt Breida and journeyman veteran Alfred Morris.
And the pressure on quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo just ratcheted up exponentially.
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Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
High: 16
Low: 21
Last Week: 18
For most of the offseason, the 49ers were the hype darlings of the NFL. But after the events of this past weekend, that torch has been passed.
With Khalil Mack now in Chicago, there’s suddenly talk of the Bears as a playoff contender. Not an improved team. Not a tough out each week. In advance of the Sunday night season opener against the hated Packers, the Bears are being talked up as a legitimate, playoff-caliber club.
For his part, Davenport isn’t ready to go there just yet.
“Mack absolutely makes Chicago’s defense better. But the defense wasn’t the biggest problem the Bears had. Yes, the team added passing-game weapons in the offseason, and Matt Nagy’s an offensive-minded coach. But there seems to be assumption that Mitchell Trubisky is guaranteed to take a huge step forward in his second year after tossing all of seven touchdown passes in 12 games last year. He may well do just that. But I’m going to need to see it before I consider the Bears any kind of a threat to the Packers and Vikings in the NFC North.”
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Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
High: 14
Low: 17
Last Week: 15
The Dallas Cowboys are probably ready for the regular season to start, if for no other reason than the only kind of news the team seemingly got in the preseason was bad.
Dallas’ vaunted O-line was hit with a two-pronged hammer blow. First, guard Zack Martin sprained his knee, although he should be a go for the opener against the Panthers. Then center Travis Frederick was diagnosed with Guillain-Barre syndrome, an autoimmune disease.
No one knows when he will return, but in not placing him on injured reserve, per David Moore of the Dallas Morning News, the Cowboys are holding out hope that he’ll play this season.
It was much the same story on defense. First-round rookie Leighton Vander Esch has missed so much time that he’ll open the season as a reserve. Earlier in the offseason defensive tackle David Irving drew a four-game suspension and then showed up to camp woefully out of shape.
None of those developments are season-killers like Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension last year. And the Cowboys are a talented club on both sides of the ball.
But if Dallas is going to reclaim the NFC East from the Philadelphia Eagles, there’s little margin for error.
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Mark Zaleski/Associated Press
High: 10
Low: 15
Last Week: 14
For a team that won a playoff game last year, the Tennessee Titans haven’t generated much offseason hype. The Titans are viewed by many as…OK.
The first month of the season could go a long way toward determining if that narrative changes at all.
Tennessee gets something of a favorable draw to open the year, traveling to face a beatable Miami team. But then things tighten up in a hurry—Houston at home, the Jaguars on the road and a home date with the Super Bowl champs.
The Titans don’t have a ton of holes, although the pass rush and offensive line are nicked up to open the year. But Tennessee also isn’t dominant in any single area.
We just aren’t sure how good this team is yet. But given that early slate, we should have a much better idea soon enough.
And the Titans could be set to play chutes and ladders in these rankings—for better or worse.
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Mike McCarn/Associated Press
High: 11
Low: 14
Last Week: 13
The Carolina Panthers have long been a team that runs the football and plays defense. If Christian McCaffrey’s play in the preseason is any indication, the former isn’t going to be a problem this year. So long as Luke Kuechly is prowling the middle of the defense, the latter is likely handled too.
Whether the Panthers can make a deep playoff run in 2018 likely comes down to the biggest question mark facing the team (again).
Carolina’s ability to move the ball through the air.
Veteran tight end Greg Olsen is healthy again. McCaffrey caught 80 passes out of the backfield as a rookie. Devin Funchess isn’t Antonio Brown, but he’s a decent underneath option.
If rookie DJ Moore opens things up vertically, Cam Newton gets the passing game firing and the Panthers’ revamped O-line holds up, Carolina is more than capable of hanging with the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints.
But in an NFC South that has the makings of a buzz saw this season, the Panthers can’t afford to be one-dimensional offensively—even if they are really good at that one dimension.
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Annie Rice/Associated Press
High: 12
Low: 13
Last Week: 12
Offensively, the Kansas City Chiefs are as loaded as any team in the league. Second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal. The NFL’s leading rusher from last year in Kareem Hunt. One of the best tight ends in the game in Travis Kelce. A one-two punch of deep threats at wide receiver in Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill that’s the stuff of nightmares for cornerbacks.
But of the top 12 teams in these power rankings, the Chiefs might be the most deeply flawed.
In last year’s run to the AFC West title, they ranked 28th in the league in total defense and 29th against the pass. And that was with Marcus Peters in town. The secondary may be worse now, and the front seven isn’t scaring anyone.
The Chiefs are going to be dangerous offensively—capable of dropping 30 on just about any defense.
Mahomes and Co. may have to if the defense can’t stop anyone.
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Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press
High: 8
Low: 17
Last Week: 11
At the end of the day, there’s one factor that will determine whether it’s Gagnon (who ranked Houston eighth) or Davenport (who dropped the team all the way to No. 17) who is closer to accurate about the Texans this year.
Health. Or the lack thereof.
If quarterback Deshaun Watson is healthy, the Texans offense is as explosive as any in football. Watson is capable of effortlessly flicking deep strikes downfield to DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller V.
If edge-rushers J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney are healthy, Houston’s pass rush might be the league’s best. Watt is a generational talent. Mercilus and Clowney are potential All-Pros. There are just too many high-end players to block.
But Watson is coming off a second ACL tear, and he’s playing behind a line that allowed 54 sacks in 2017. Watt has just 1.5 sacks over the last two years thanks to a pair of serious injuries.
Contender or pretender—it all comes down to players not going down.
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Josie Lepe/Associated Press
High: 10
Low: 11
Last Week: 10
This is a time of great promise for the Los Angeles Chargers—and trepidation.
On paper, this looks like the best team the Bolts have fielded in quite some time. Philip Rivers has talent around him at tailback and wide receiver and an offensive line that’s at least capable. The defensive line and secondary are both stacked and should lead the team to its second straight top-10 ranking in pass defense.
As they prepare to host the defending AFC West champion Chiefs in Week 1, the Chargers enter the regular season as the analysts’ top-ranked team in the division.
That’s where the trepidation comes in.
The Chargers have a long history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Of seeing promising seasons derailed by injuries or slow starts. This is largely the same Chargers team that began last year 0-4.
That season opener could be a serious tone-setter for both the Chargers and the perception of the team. Win, and the Bolts make a statement that they are for real.
Lose, and the grumbles will begin that these are the same old sad-sack Chargers.
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Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press
High: 7
Low: 12
Last Week: 9
It’s a good week to be Aaron Rodgers.
In a week that saw blockbuster contracts handed out like lollipops, Rodgers got the blockbustery-est of them all—a four-year, $134 million extension that made the 34-year-old the highest-paid player in NFL history.
Now, when the Packers host the Chicago Bears on Sunday night, the league’s highest-paid offensive and defensive players will face off.
No one has questioned whether Rodgers deserves all that cash. As was shown plainly a year ago, as goes No. 12, so goes Green Bay.
In Gagnon’s opinion, that’s the problem—and why he’s the lowest ranker of the group.
“My only concern with the Packers is they’re extremely reliant on their quarterback. Sure, most teams would fall out of contention without their QB, but the Eagles won the Super Bowl without theirs. The NFC is very strong, and the Saints, Rams, Vikings, Eagles, Falcons, Patriots, Steelers, Jaguars, Texans and Chargers are better all-around teams. Green Bay could leapfrog a lot of those squads early this season, but boy does Aaron Rodgers ever have to stay healthy.”
Rodgers vs. Mack. Week 1. Prime time. Bring popcorn.
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Jason Behnken/Associated Press
High: 8
Low: 9
Last Week: 8
The Jacksonville Jaguars are in uncharted waters. They aren’t used to entering a season as a Super Bowl contender.
Per Cole Pepper of News 4 Jacksonville, head coach Doug Marrone knows there’s hype surrounding the Jaguars—but he’s doing his best to keep the team focused on the task at hand.
“We still have work to do. I don’t think you start the season feeling like you start the season and you are 110 percent hitting on all cylinders, ready to go. Us as a coaching staff, we’re still going to be on the details, still going to be developing, still going to be working on techniques as well as putting in our schemes. We still have a ways to go there.”
The Jaguars possess a filthy defense and a great power runner in Leonard Fournette—a combination that was good enough for a trip to the AFC Championship Game last season.
If Blake Bortles and the passing game can take a step forward this year, the Jaguars might be the best-equipped team in the AFC to knock off the New England Patriots.
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Michael Wyke/Associated Press
High: 6
Low: 7
Last Week: 7
For most of the offseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been viewed as one of the AFC’s top contenders. But a significant part of that ranking (and Pittsburgh’s placement here) was based on the assumption that star tailback Le’Veon Bell would end his holdout before the season started.
It’s still possible he will. But it’s also becoming increasingly possible he won’t. Per Matt Bonesteel of the Washington Post, Bell labeled a report that he planned to sign his franchise tender on Labor Day as “fake news.”
Bell, when healthy and on his game, is one of the best in the league at what he does. Bell, wide receiver Antonio Brown and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger form a terrifying triangle of offensive talent.
But even if Bell does report, we’re talking about a tailback who carried the ball over 400 times last year who skipped the offseason two years running. The historical data on backs with over 370 touches in a season over the past decade shows that more often than not those backs struggle the following season.
One way or another, without Bell, Pittsburgh’s quest for a Super Bowl is in trouble.
And there isn’t a team in our top 10 with a shakier grip on that status.
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Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press
High: 5
Low: 9
Last Week: 6
It’s not going to take long for the Atlanta Falcons to make a case to either move up or slide down these rankings. The first game of the season features Atlanta traveling to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles in a rematch of last year’s divisional-round game.
The Eagles won that game 15-10, and they are favored in this rematch as well. But the Falcons have it in them to beat Philly on the road.
In fact, the Falcons have shown they have what it takes to make it all the way to the Super Bowl. The team has an MVP quarterback in Matt Ryan. One of the NFL’s best wide receivers in Julio Jones. A strong one-two punch at tailback. A solid offensive line. And a young, aggressive defense.
In totality, it was enough for Gagnon to slot the Falcons as one of the five best teams in the league—a ranking that earned them a tiebreak over the aforementioned Steelers.
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Ron Schwane/Associated Press
High: 3
Low: 4
Last Week: 5
This ranking will likely anger fans of the defending champions—especially given that at one point in the preseason the Eagles held down the No. 1 spot in the B/R power rankings.
To be fair, there was a three-way tie between New England, Philly and New Orleans. But since the best individual ranking the Eagles received was No. 3 (Davenport), they bring up the back end of the trio.
The Eagles have some issues. Carson Wentz still hasn’t been cleared for contact, much less to play in a game. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery remains sidelined by a shoulder injury. And Nick Foles banged up his shoulder in the preseason and hasn’t looked right since.
Still, despite this relatively low ranking and the problems facing the team, Sobleski cautioned that no one needs to be hitting any big red buttons just yet.
“The NFC is absolutely loaded, yet the Eagles remain among the league’s best due to the team’s overall depth, especially at quarterback. Even with the uncertainty surrounding Carson Wentz’s recovery and Nick Foles’ inconsistent preseason play, the champs still have more than enough talent to be considered elite.”
A home tilt with the Falcons to open the season will give the Eagles an opportunity to show they deserve to be ranked higher—or that the concerns regarding the team are valid.
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Jason E. Miczek/Associated Press
High: 2
Low: 6
Last Week: 4
We’ve reached the “final four”—Bleacher Report’s top quartet of teams entering the season. Only one of those teams, however, hails from the AFC.
Shock and amazement, that team is the New England Patriots.
In theory, this looks like one of the more flawed iterations of the franchise in recent years. The wide receiver corps lacks depth and won’t have Julian Edelman for the season’s first month. The offensive line lost left tackle Nate Solder in free agency. The defense was one of the league’s worst last season.
And yet, despite that leaky defense, the Patriots still nearly won their sixth Super Bowl of the Brady/Belichick era. This team shakes off adversities and problems better than any in recent memory. No matter what happens to them, the Patriots just keep winning.
They will all but certainly win their 10th consecutive AFC East title.
And they are the clear-cut favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
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Bill Feig/Associated Press
High: 1
Low: 5
Last Week: 3
This may be the most complete team in New Orleans since the Saints acquired Drew Brees—including the team that won Super Bowl XLIV.
Offensively, the Saints have two talented and dangerous tailbacks in Mark Ingram II (suspended for the first four games) and Alvin Kamara. Youngster Michael Thomas is a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver.
This team is going to score points.
Defensively, there’s a top-10 defensive lineman in Cameron Jordan. A secondary anchored by reigning DROY Marshon Lattimore. And an improved LB corps that brought in an experienced leader in Demario Davis in free agency.
Even Davenport, who ranked the Saints the lowest of any of the analysts at No. 5, allowed that they will challenge for NFC supremacy.
“My ranking of the Saints says more about how ridiculously stacked the NFC is than it does about the team itself. This team is loaded, balanced and has a Hall of Fame quarterback. New Orleans also has a favorable schedule to open the season that could portend a hot start—and a climb in my power rankings.”
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John Froschauer/Associated Press
High: 1
Low: 4
Last Week: 2
In an offseason that’s featured nothing but good news, the Los Angeles Rams may just have gotten the best news of all.
As ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported, last week the Rams agreed to terms on a six-year, $135 million contract extension with reigning Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald. For a few days at least, it made Donald the league’s highest-paid defender—until Khalil Mack’s deal in Chicago surpassed it.
Donald’s holdout was the lone dark cloud hanging over a team that was all sunshine over the past several months. The Rams have assembled a veritable “dream team” after acquiring a fistful of veteran stars either in free agency or via trade.
A Rams offense that already led the NFL in scoring in 2017 added a proven No. 1 receiver in Brandin Cooks. The defense added two veteran cornerbacks (Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters) and brought in Ndamukong Suh to pair with Donald up front.
The Rams are stacked. Loaded. Brimming with talent on both sides of the ball.
If they play to their potential (or close to it), they will be very difficult to beat.
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Bruce Kluckhohn/Associated Press
High: 1
Low: 3
Last Week: 1
Well, this is it. The end of the line. Bleacher Report’s No. 1 team as we begin this NFL season.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that it’s the Minnesota Vikings.
More so than any team in the league, the Vikings don’t have a weakness for opponents to exploit. Kirk Cousins is an accomplished veteran quarterback. The talent at running back, wide receiver and tight end is as good in totality as anyone’s.
Defensively, the Vikings possess arguably the most loaded front four in the league—Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, Sheldon Richardson and Danielle Hunter. Only Hunter hasn’t already been named a Pro Bowler, and his future inclusion is inevitable.
The linebackers and defensive backs are nothing to sneeze at either.
Toss in one of the most underrated head coaches in the NFL in Mike Zimmer, and you have all the ingredients for a juggernaut.
The Vikings came one game from the Super Bowl last year without Cousins. And Richardson. And Dalvin Cook.
It’s fixing to be quite the season in the Twin Cities.
Iraq’s newly elected parliament held its first session on Monday as two rival blocs, both claiming to hold the most seats, vied for the right to form a new government.
The parliament meeting followed more than three months after the May 12 polls, the first since Iraq declared victory over the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS) group late last year.
On Sunday, Iraqi political groups, including those led by Shia leader Moqtada al-Sadr and Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, formed a 16-group alliance to create a parliamentary bloc.
With 54 seats, Sadr’s Sairoon coalition had won the elections, while Abadi’s al-Nasr coalition came in third with 42 seats. However, no electoral coalition secured a clear majority in the polls.
The new bloc includes religious and ethnic groups, such as Shia and Sunni Arabs and Turkmen, as well as Yazidi and Christian minorities.
A total of 166 MPs are required to form a coalition in the 329-seat parliament, which in turn would form the country’s new government and name the new prime minister.
The Sadr-Abadi alliance claimed it had a majority of the seats, which was contested by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who formed an alliance with militia commander Hadi al-Ameri.
Neither alliance included the two main Kurdish parties, placing them to reprise the kingmaker role they have historically played, as their combined 43 seats would give whichever alliance they join a sizable numerical advantage.
I don’t think the Americans will accept any role for the Iranians in Iraq.
Ahmed Rushdi, former Iraqi parliamentary speaker
Protracted process
Ahmed Rushdi, a former parliamentary speaker and a member of the House of Iraqi Expertise Foundation told Al Jazeera that due to these differing claims of majority seats, there is still no clear vision yet as to which bloc will end up forming the government.
“The most important thing is that until now [parliament] still hasn’t managed to [put forward] candidates for the prime minister, president and the parliamentary speaker,” he said.
After the US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003, the leadership positions are held by Iraq’s three largest ethnic-sectarian components – a Shia, Kurd and Sunni respectively.
Rushdi said that a protracted process in forming a government is likely, pointing out that in the previous 2010 election, it took 11 months for a government to be made.
This time around however, there are two foreign players on the ground: Iraqi allies and archrivals, the Iranians and the Americans.
“I don’t think the Americans will accept any role for the Iranians in Iraq and have been threatening to use economic blockage if the next Iraqi government will be close to Tehran,” he said.
Ameri and Maliki are Iran’s two most prominent allies in Iraq. Abadi is seen as the preferred candidate of the US, while Sadr portrays himself as a nationalist who rejects both American and Iranian influence.
Rebuilding the country
In addition to balancing relations between Iran and the US, the new government will be tasked with rebuilding the country after a three-year war with ISIL.
Furthermore, uncertainty over the composition of the new government has raised tensions at a time when public impatience is growing over poor basic services, high unemployment and the slow pace of reconstruction.
Nader Hashemi, a professor at the University of Denver, told Al Jazeera that there is hope that Sadr and Maliki’s alliance, as the “most inclusive and representative since the 2003 US invasions” will begin to address these issues.
“Most of the key players have a nationalist political agenda that is geared towards developing Iraq for all of Iraqi citizens not catering to the ethnic or sectarian interest of a particular group,” he said. “So in that sense there’s a lot to be optimistic about.”
Mamoon Alabbasi, a political analyst focusing on the Middle East and North Africa, was more cautious about just how representative Sadr’s alliance would be.
“It is common for Shia-led political alliances to include members of other communities,” he told Al Jazeera.
“How much influence do these members have or what kind of treatment their communities will receive is the real test. Otherwise the diverse makeup is cosmetic.”
‘Stakes are huge’
Hashemi acknowledged however that whether Sadr alliance will be able to address the immense political and socioeconomic challenges that Iraqi society is afflicted with, such as unemployment, corruption, and the delivering of public services, remains to be seen.
“The stakes are huge,” he explained. “Iraq is a failed state. It’s been deeply affected by a sectarian war and by the rise of ISIL – which has been comprehensively crushed but not defeated,” Hashemi added.
Abbasi said that the rebuilding of Sunni-majority provinces, especially Anbar and Nineveh, has taken a backseat.
“Talk of reconstructing these areas was abundant following Iraq’s victory against the ISIL, and it peaked during the donor conference in Kuwait early this year,” he said.
“But now the focus for the current and incoming governments is on dealing with the protests in the Shia-majority south.”
People gather during a protest near the main provincial government building because of the water pollution and poor services in Basra [File:Essam al-Sudani/Reuters]
For several months now, tens of thousands of Iraqis, in several provinces such as Basra, Najaf and Karbala, have been demonstrating against the lack of clean drinking water and electricity cuts, but their demands have yet to be met.
“The incoming government will likely start by making short term fixes for the unemployment and poor services crises,” Abbasi said.
“However, if the government wants to go deeper than merely addressing the symptoms of some of Iraq’s problems, then there will be no escaping the fight to root out corruption.”
Just a decade ago, “socialism” was a dirty word in American politics. Debates over its merits were mostly limited to obscure blogs, niche magazines and political parties on the other side of the Atlantic. But more recently Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and a handful of other politicians have breathed new life into the label, injecting a radical alternate vision for the U.S. economy into the mainstream political debate. Ahead of the midterms, politicians like Ocasio-Cortez, Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib, and Kansas’ James Thompson have proudly held up their endorsements from Democratic Socialists of America, the country’s largest socialist group, whose numbers have swelled since Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign.
For Fox News viewers, it’s the stuff of nightmares—not to mention that skittish Democrats fear alienating swing voters more comfortable with their party’s post-Lyndon B. Johnson incrementalism. According to a poll from August, however, for the first time since Gallup has asked the question, more Democrats approve of socialism than of capitalism. Could socialism really come to America—and what would it look like? Politico Magazine invited a group of socialist writers, policy wonks and politicians (and a few critics) to weigh in, and their responses were as diverse as the movement itself—reflecting, if nothing else, the expanded political horizons of our post-Trump brave new world. —Derek Robertson
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If it’s good enough for the Nordics, it’s good enough for us. Matthew Bruenig is the founder of the People’s Policy Project, a progressive think tank.
One way to implement socialism in the United States would be to copy many of the economic institutions found in the Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway. These countries, which consistently rank near the top of the world in happiness, human development and overall well-being, have highly organized labor markets, universal welfare states and relatively high levels of public ownership of capital.
To move in the Nordic direction, the United States should promote the mass unionization of its workforce, increase legal protections against arbitrary termination and allow workers to control some of the seats on the corporate boards of the companies they work in, as Senator Elizabeth Warren has recently suggested.
When it comes to the welfare state, the country should create a national health insurance system, akin to some Democrats’ “Medicare for All” proposals, extend new parents paid leave from work, provide young children free child care and pre-K, and give each family a $300 per month allowance per child. The United States should also provide housing stipends to those on low incomes and increase the minimum benefits for those on senior and disability pensions.
To increase public ownership over capital, the government should establish a social wealth fund and gradually fill that fund with capital assets purchased on the open market. Over time, the returns from this fund could be parceled out as universal payments to every American, or used for general government revenue. The government should also build at least 10 million units of publicly owned, mixed-income social housing, which would both increase public ownership of the U.S. housing stock and provide a much-needed boost to the housing supply in prohibitively expensive metropolitan areas.
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Democratic socialism is about expanding democracy. David Duhalde is the senior electoral manager for Our Revolution, the Sanders-inspired progressive nonprofit.
The often-ignored core of how we would implement socialism is the expansion of who makes decisions in society and how, including the democratic ownership of the workplace. Democratic socialism in the United States is as much about expanding democracy as it is anything else.
In the short term, socialists, like liberals, want to protect, strengthen, and expand social services and public goods. We do so, however, not just because those programs are humane, but to move us toward a social democracy where people’s lives are less bound to the whims of the so-called free market. Universal health care and a jobs guarantee, two seemingly radical ideas that are in fact currently before the Senate, would be just the first steps toward social democracy.
Establishing democratic socialism means democratizing ownership of capital, our jobs and our personal lives. Socialists believe that if you work somewhere, you should have a say it in how it’s run. Through unions, worker councils and elected boards, this is possible at the company level today. Furthermore, if your labor generates profit, under socialism you would have an ownership stake and a democratic say in how your workplace is run. Co-ops and public enterprises like Mandragon in the Basque country, Cooperation Jackson in Mississippi and Red Emma’s in Baltimore give us a partial glimpse into what such ownership could look like. This type of democratized economy would grant autonomy to historically neglected communities, and it would be the foundation of any socialist United States.
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Call it what you want, it’s about making communities more equal. Rashida Tlaib is the Democratic candidate for Michigan’s 13th Congressional District.
Socialism, to me, means ensuring that our government policy puts human needs before corporate greed and that we build communities where everyone has a chance to thrive. I’m resistant to labels, even ones that might obviously describe me, like “progressive,” because I feel like once the media starts defining you, instead of letting your actions speak volumes, you start to lose a bit of who you are. I’m proud to be a member of the Metro Detroit DSA because they are working for the same things I’m working for—a living wage for all people, abolishing ICE and securing universal health care, to name just a few.
We’re trying to create communities where the education you have access to, or the jobs you’re able to get, don’t depend on your zip code or your race or gender. People aren’t looking for a “progressive” or a “democratic socialist” representative, necessarily, but they also aren’t scared of those words—they’re just looking for a fighter who will put their needs ahead of corporate profits and never back down. So, if other people want to call me a democratic socialist based on my fighting for public goods that make us all better off, that’s fine with me, and I certainly won’t tell them otherwise. But I define myself through my own unique lens—I’m a mother fighting for justice for all. Ultimately, I’m trying to build coalitions and inspire activists to create a society where everyone has a chance to flourish. That’s the socialism I’m interested in.
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Socialism would remedy the systemic deprivation of people of color. Connie M. Razza is director of policy and research at the think tank Demos.
A more democratically socialist—or equitable—American economy would require a re-engineering of the structures that have systematically stripped wealth and other resources from communities of color. To see these structures, one could look back hundreds of years to Europeans stripping land from Native Americans and enslaving Africans to till that land; one could look back just nine months to Republicans passing a tax cut to benefit their big-money donors at the expense of the working and poor people.
Additionally, a new system would adjust how corporations are treated, recognizing what is already true: We invest in corporations and the infrastructure they rely on because they should serve us. With the current mood for deregulation and cutting taxes, we’ve shifted power to corporations. Appropriate regulation and fair taxation help business to pool resources—whether money (as in finance), power (as in energy companies), technology, food—and distribute them where they truly need to go.
Crucially, an equitable future requires that everyone has an equal say in American democracy—equal ease in access to voting, free of overly restrictive hurdles. Smart public financing would enable voters to participate meaningfully by donating to candidates and enable all qualified citizens to run for office. Money should not give the wealthy extra votes. A more balanced political economy would recognize that only speech is speech, and the opportunity to influence the thinking of representatives is through the soundness of ideas.
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Democratic socialism means democratic ownership over the economy. Peter Gowan is a fellow with the progressive nonprofit the Democracy Collaborative.
A democratically elected government should own natural monopolies such as utilities and rail transport; provide social services like health care, education, housing, child care and banking; and create a general welfare state that eliminates poverty through guaranteeing a minimum income, with assistance for people with disabilities, the elderly and families with children.
But we have to go beyond that. We need measures to establish democratic ownership over the wider economy, and eliminate our dependence on industries that rely on pollution and war for their existence. There need to be strategies to allow workers in the defense, aerospace and fossil fuel industries to repurpose their facilities for more socially useful production, drawing on the example of the Lucas Plan in Britain, where workers designed and published a viable “alternative corporate plan” that included funding for renewable energy, public transport and medical technology. We need a mechanism to transfer corporate equity into sector-oriented social wealth funds controlled by diverse and accountable stakeholders, which would gradually transfer ownership away from unaccountable elites and toward inclusive institutions.
A democratic socialist America would be a society where wealth and power are far more evenly distributed, and it would be less cruel, less lonely and less alienating. Democratic socialism aims for the liberation of human agency and creativity—not just in America, but in all the countries that capital exploits and invades for the profits of our nation’s billionaires.
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It’s about giving everyone a voice in decision-making. Maria Svart is national director of the Democratic Socialists of America.
Our collective power is the key to what socialism in America would look like, because democratic socialism rests on one key premise: We don’t have a blueprint, so expanding democracy to include all of us is both the means and the end.
The problem with capitalism is not just that a system fueled by a wealthy, profit-hungry elite is inherently unstable, or that it leaves whole layers of society starving in the streets. It is that it relies on the dictatorship of the rich. The fundamental difference we expect from a socialist society is that we will all have a voice in the decisions that impact our lives. Workplaces will be owned by the workers who run them, rather than an authoritarian boss.
The political system will be truly democratic, rather than run by those who have bought the politicians. Family life will be more democratic, and no one will have to depend on a breadwinner to survive because public services like health care will be available to all, and will be run with community oversight. Finally, government investment will be democratic, rather than decided by corporate donors or Wall Street gamblers. In other words, we will have true freedom, not just survival—the choices available to us now that depend on the whims of the few.
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It’s much simpler: social insurance. Samuel Hammond is director of poverty and welfare studies at the free market think tank the Niskanen Center.
Almost a century after FDR signed the Social Security Act into law, it remains his most enduring legacy, helping to keep more than 22 million seniors out of poverty each year—and protecting millions more from the risk of outliving their savings. And yet, we generally don’t think of Social Security as, well, “socialist.” But why shouldn’t we? Not only is it the federal government’s largest outlay—one third of the budget, at nearly $1 trillion per year—but its establishment signified that even the most rugged American individualist is ultimately bound to his or her fellow citizens.
The frontier spirit of American entrepreneurship, and the enormous heterogeneity that comes with being a nation of immigrants, means the United States will never have the high-trust brand of social democracy one finds in Northern Europe. Yet the success of Social Security provides a two-word hint for how America can become more “socialist” overnight: social insurance.
Social insurance is the public pooling of risks that markets struggle to contain, from pre-existing medical conditions to the sudden loss of employment. It can be done efficiently by any government competent enough to cut checks. And while the bureaucratic opacity of the Social Security Administration can be infuriating, it appears perfectly compatible with America’s low-trust brand of pluralism. This suggests that the path forward for American socialists is not occupying Wall Street, but the streets of Hartford, Connecticut—the nation’s insurance industry capital.
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Forget social democracy. America is ready for actual socialism. Joe Guinan is executive director of the Next System Project at the Democracy Collaborative.
When socialism comes to America, it won’t be “one size fits all”—although it will have universalist aspects and aspirations. Rather than imposed from above, it will be bottom up, in line with America’s best traditions—able to draw, like the New Deal, on a rich tapestry of experimentation in state and local “laboratories of democracy.” It will be democratic, decentralized and participatory. It will be rooted in racial, gender and sexual justice, recalling Langston Hughes’ “and that never has been yet—and yet must be.” It will dismantle an already-existing American gulag—today’s racialized regime of mass incarceration, encompassing the largest prison population in the world—rather than imposing one. It will be about living safely, wisely and well within a flourishing commons, in solidarity with our nonhuman comrades, rather than overshooting ecological boundaries in the pursuit of financial accumulation.
This will be actual socialism, rather than social democracy or liberalism, because it will have socialized the means of production—although in plural forms that do not all center on the state. Instead of concentrated wealth, it will have broad dispersal of ownership. Instead of frictionless global markets, the rooted, participatory, recirculatory local economy. Instead of extractive multinational corporations, the worker, community and municipally owned firm. Instead of asset-stripping privatization, myriad forms of democratic public enterprise. Instead of private credit creation by commercial banks and rentier finance, the massive potential power of public banks and sovereign government finance—harkening back to Abraham Lincoln and Franklin D. Roosevelt.
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A radical alternative to an American capitalist system that is anything but free. Thomas Hanna is director of research at the Democracy Collaborative.
A practical form of socialism in the United States in the 21st century would occur when democratic ownership displaces and supersedes the current, dominant extractive corporate model. There is no single, ideal form of democratic ownership, but an enormous variety including full state ownership, partial state ownership, local/municipal ownership, multi-stakeholder ownership, worker ownership, consumer cooperative ownership, producer cooperative ownership, community ownership and sustainable local private ownership.
Despite all the rhetoric about the “free market,” the American capitalist system is anything but. It’s already reliant on a heavy dose of government policy, regulation, administration and accompanying interventions at various levels—in some cases even approximating soft planning, as in, for example, the farm sector. Some such mix of markets and planning will, at least at first, inevitably be a feature of an American socialist system, ideally with more democratic involvement in determining long-term national, regional and local priorities, on one hand. On the other, it will feature greater rationality in efforts toward more geographically equitable economic development—not to mention dealing with the increasing threat of climate change.
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America could turn into Western Europe. But should it? Carrie Lukas is the president of the Independent Women’s Forum. She lived in the European Union for the majority of the past decade.
While this path is clearly preferable to more extreme versions of socialism, Americans should still be wary. Higher taxes and more generous welfare services discourage work and invite people to rely on the state. Countries with strong cultures of work and personal responsibility are held up as examples of how this system can succeed, but these are the exceptions; high unemployment rates and lower incomes are the norm.
Americans also face unique budgetary concerns: Europe has been able to forgo massive spending on defense and national security largely because of the role the U.S. military plays in our global alliances. The United States has no such guaranteed backstop. Meaningfully cutting defense spending will make not just our country, but the world, less secure.
Just as importantly, Americans ought to consider how welfare-state socialism undermines people’s basic gumption. Europeans can hardly bother to reproduce, are less charitable, have less civic engagement and are less entrepreneurial than Americans. American innovation, risk-taking and our fundamental commitment to leaving the next generation better off than the last would all be jeopardized if we embrace European socialism. These are the virtues we would undoubtedly miss the most.
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A complete welfare state, a transformed labor market and state ownership of the means of production. Ryan Cooper is a national correspondent for The Week.
The moral motivation for a move to socialism is egalitarianism, taken from John Rawls or Jesus Christ or whomever. The basic objective would be to harness the wealth developed by the collective operation of the economy on behalf of the entire population, because it is unjust for a tiny elite minority to hoover up a gigantic fraction of income and wealth while millions are destitute or just scraping by.
In general, there are three main socialist policy objectives that make the most sense. The first is a complete welfare state, in which the state will catch every category of person who either falls out of work or cannot work—the unemployed, children, students, elderly, disabled, carers and so on. Once complete, the welfare state removes the capitalist compulsion to work by threat of destitution, and replaces that threat with the offer of job placement, training and so forth. Second would be a radically transformed labor market, in which virtually all workers are unionized and covered by union contracts, wage differentials between skilled and unskilled are sharply compressed, and workers hold perhaps 33 percent to 50 percent of corporate board seats. Third is the direct state ownership of the means of production, either through building up productive state enterprises, nationalizing certain key companies, or scooping up large swathes of corporate equity into a social wealth fund (as Alaska has done).
This last one is the most radical but, I think, necessary to really hammer down inequality. A third of all national income goes to capital, ownership of which is increasingly concentrated. Indeed, all the top 1 percent income growth since 2000 has come from capital.
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Markets are not enough to solve the problems we face. Sean McElwee is a writer and the co-founder of Data for Progress.
Socialism is the radically simple idea that democratic values should guide our economy toward the maximization of human flourishing, rather than the accumulation of capital. We would never accept decisions about our government being made exclusively by old rich white men, and we shouldn’t accept decisions about our economy being made that way. Historically, rich white men as a group have not been the best stewards of the common interests of humanity.
When our economy is not democratic, it’s impossible for our government to be. We cannot steer our society toward maximum well-being as efficiently as the interests of capital override the interests of our shared humanity. Take, for example, climate change: The math is simple. Our largest corporations have fossil fuel supplies that, if burned through, would push global concentrations of carbon to more than twice the dangerous threshold. The choice is simple: Humanity exists, and companies take a write-off, or companies maintain profitability and human life is extinguished.
How do socialists differ from liberal Democrats? First, socialists recognize that markets alone are not enough to solve the problems we face. In the current moment, the market capitalization of just a few large fossil fuel companies has been enough to override the will of not just American voters, but the international community. More of the economy must be taken out of the hands of markets—not just energy production, but health care, through socialized medicine. Second, socialists recognize that a welfare state built on imperialism is not a progressive goal. The United States, as many Democratic politicians like noting, is the wealthiest country in the world. That wealth is built on violence tantamount to murder on a global scale. It is the wages of empire. A socialist politics strives for a radical flattening of the global income distribution.
Socialists believe that without democratic control of capital and an end to imperialism, the goals of progressivism will be left unfulfilled. Socialists argue that capitalism is incompatible with democracy. To those who disagree, we pose a simple question: which will be wiped out sooner—the market capitalization of ExxonMobil, or the city of Miami?
More than 1,600 people have died or gone missing while attempting to reach Europe so far this year, UNCHR’s new Desperate Journeys report shows.
The report released on Monday reveals that while the number of crossings has fallen, the deaths have risen, making the voyage more deadly in percentage terms for those who venture across.
According to the report, people smugglers are taking greaters risks in the journey due to increased surveillance.
A total of 2,276 people died last year while trying to cross, this represented one death for every 42 arrivals.
This year, it is 1,095 deaths, or one out of every 18 arrivals. In June alone, the proportion hit one death for every seven arrivals. About 500 people have gone missing.
“This report once again confirms the Mediterranean as one of the world’s deadliest sea crossings,” said UNHCR’s Director of the Bureau for Europe, Pascale Moreau.
“With the number of people arriving on European shores falling, this is no longer a test of whether Europe can manage the numbers, but whether Europe can muster the humanity to save lives,” she added.
People travelling to Europe continue to do so for different reasons.
Some continue to flee armed conflict and human rights violations, while others seek international protection on account of religious, ethnic or political persecution or to escape different forms of sexual or gender-based violence, the report revealed.
On the Central Mediterranean route so far this year, there have been 10 separate incidents in which 50 or more people died – most after departing from Libya.
“The reason the traffic has become more deadly is that the traffickers are taking more risk, because there is more surveillance exercised by the Libyan coast guards,” said Vincent Cochetel, UNHCR’s special envoy for the central Mediterranean.
Seven of those incidents have been since June alone, UNHCR said.
“This is not new, we have highlighted this for a while now,” Maria Jesus Vega a spokesperson from UNCHR in Spain told Al Jazeera.
“We need a regional response, this not an exclusive problem from those countries that are in the outer border, such as Italy, Greece or Spain.”
And while people risk their lives in the journey, this is not the only time they are at risk.
“People aiming to reach to Europe risk their lives multiple times,” Vega said.
“They risk their lives when they try to flee conflict in their countries, when they need to cross the borders with no authorisation, and when they fall in the hands of traffickers and mafias that promise to take them,” she explained.
Monetising tragedy
Libyan authorities intercepted or rescued 18,400 people between August last year and July this year – a 38-percent increase from the same period of 2016 and 2017.
Arrivals by sea from Libya to Europe plummeted 82 percent in those comparable periods, to 30,800 in the more recent one.
UNHCR says a growing worry these days is deaths on land by people trying to get to Libya in the first place, or getting stuck in squalid, overcrowded detention centres.
Many are returned there after failing to cross by sea to Europe.
The problems after disembarkation (is that) those people are sent back to detention centres, and many disappear,” Cochetel said.
“Many are sold to militias, and to traffickers, and people employing them without paying them.”
He said the drop in departures means that traffickers attempt to “monetise their investment, which means they have to exploit more people.”
“That results in more cases of slavery, forced labour, prostitution of those people – because they (smugglers) want to make money off those people.”
And while this route is deadly, this is not the only one that raises a red alert.
“The route of Morocco or Algeria to Spain has also shown an increase in the death rate,” Vega said.
“So far this year we have a total of 300 people dead.”
“In the same period last year, we had a total of 200 deaths, this is very worrisome, and a lot of this has to do with the mafias that are operating the route, they are taking greater risks every day,” she added.
Spain is the third busiest point of arrival for all refugees and migrants entering Europe by sea, behind Italy and Greece, accounting for 23 percent of all such arrivals to the EU.
Renewed clashes between rival armed groups in Tripoli have plunged Libya in yet deeper chaos, casting serious doubt as to whether the war-wracked country is ready to hold planned elections later this year.
On August 27, fierce fighting erupted in the capital’s southern districts after the Seventh Brigade, an armed group based in Tarhouna, 65km southeast of Tripoli, launched a surprise offensive against rival militias.
At least 39 people have been killed so far, including 18 civilians in gun battles and indiscriminate shelling hitting densely populated areas. Hundreds more were wounded.
A truce was reached on August 28 but clashes resumed shortly after, forcing authorities to close Tripoli’s only functioning airport.
The Seventh Brigade has since assumed control of the airport.
The UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli declared a state of emergency on Sunday, saying in a statement it was necessary to “protect and secure civilians, public and private possessions and vital institutions”.
Divisions along regional, tribal and linguistic lines have complicated the North African country’s transition to democracy since the ouster of longstanding leader Muammar Gaddafi nearly seven years ago.
Arms groups now clashing in and around the capital played an integral part in the NATO-backed mission to topple Gaddafi.
Successive governments’ failure to integrate these militias into the formal security structure has led to some groups strengthening their position in the capital – and elsewhere – where they control oil terminals, airports, military barracks and other crucial infrastructure.
The existence of two rival legislatures – the internationally recognised GNA and the eastern based House of Representatives (HOR) – each with its own central bank and national oil company, highlights another challenge in the country’s plight to enact the necessary reforms and, ultimately hold elections.
In May, Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj of the GNA and General Khalifa Haftar of the self-styled Libyan National Army – who control much of eastern Libya – met in Paris and agreed on a timeline to hold nation-wide polls by the end of the year.
With a September 16 deadline to establish a constitutional and legal basis for elections looming, Al Jazeera takes a look at the different groups vying for power and the prospects for an election this year.
Who’s fighting who?
The Seventh Brigade, otherwise known as the Kanyat – named after three brothers who hail from Tarhouna – are the only armed group to control an entire town.
The group’s stated aim in the latest surge of violence is to “cleanse Tripoli of corrupt militias […] who use their influence to get bank credits worth millions of dollars while ordinary people sleep outside banks to get a few dinars”.
Joined by fighters from the Misrata and Zintan regions, the group is targeting four armed brigades inside Tripoli which it accuses of usurping power and pursuing its interests at the expense of the Libyan state.
According to Emadeddin Muntasser, a Libyan political analyst and human rights campaigner, the behavior of armed groups inside the capital – their grip on virtually all economic activity – has prompted the current crisis.
“Lack of bank liquidity, corruption, and interruptions of all basic services has made living conditions quite desperate,” Muntasser said.
“These conditions formed the backdrop for the current military action,” he added.
The United Nations’ Panel of Experts has already warned of the threat that armed groups pose to vital state institutions such as the Central Bank, the National Oil Company or even the Libyan Investment Authority.
A report by the Small Arms Survey report (SAS) in June said the Seventh Brigade – which operates under the banner of the GNA – had expanded significantly since mid-2017.
Analysts say armed groups pledging allegiance to the GNA government however doesn’t mean they will heed civilian authorities’ orders.
“Everybody is under the GNA government because the ministry of interior and ministry of defence pay out salaries but nobody takes orders from them,” said Tarek Megerisi, a political researcher specialising in Libya.
“What happened about six or seven months ago is an alliance that formed between Zintan, Misrata, Tarhouna and Tajura, and they have been planning to attack Tripoli for a long time,” he added.
Megerisi said other fighters, at times from lesser-known groups, are also participating in the current violence. They too had been pushed out from the capital in the past.
Why are they fighting?
In a paper brief published in April, Wolfram Lacher, a senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, warned of a worrying trend among Libyan armed groups; the rise of a “militia cartel” or “oligopoly”.
According to Lacher, four groups in particular exerted a disproportionate influence on the government.
These are the Tripoli Revolutionary Brigade, the Nawasi Brigade, the Special Deterrence Force and the Abu Slim unit of the Central Security apparatus.
“The pillaging of state funds – a hallmark of Libya’s political economy – now benefits a narrower group than at any previous point since the 2011,” said Lacher.
“Actors excluded from this arrangement are building alliances to alter the balance of power in Tripoli by force.”
When the Presidential Council of al-Serraj arrived in Tripoli in 2016 by boat, the four groups were among themany that were already active in the city.
According to analysts, the four entities won the favour of the weak UN-backed government because they actively defended it.
WATCH: Inside Story – Who is in control of Libya’s oil ports?
At the same time, they benefited from the legitimacy that comes with being associated with a government.
Experts say recent events show the government’s inability time and again to demobilise irregular forces and integrate them into its defence and security apparatus.
This failure, in conjunction with the consolidation of military brigades to a handful of powerful factions, has angered rival militias who feel like they have been dealt with unjustly.
They feel like they have been marginalised and are at risk of losing access to state funds.
In the short run, the consolidation helped make Tripoli safer by decreasing the risk of armed skirmishes but actors who were sidelined were working behind the scenes on making a comeback.
What is the international community saying?
The United States, France, Italy and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement on Saturday that they condemned the escalation of violence and warned “those who tamper with security in Tripoli or elsewhere in Libya that they will be held accountable for any such actions.”
“These attempts to weaken the legitimate Libyan authorities and hinder the ongoing political process are not acceptable,” the statement published by the French foreign ministry said.
United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres also condemned the violence but for many Libyans, the GNA – who the UN supports – has no real authority on the ground.
“The GNA is a paper government with no influence of events,” lamented Muntasser.
“Plagued with incompetence, corruption and infighting, the GNA will come apart as soon as the armed gangs that offer it protection are driven out.”
This, in turn, complicates efforts by the international community and France especially to hold a vote before the end of the year.
Italy, the former colonial power in Libya, has voiced its readiness to host the warring parties in Rome for reconciliation talks that it says would set the stage for elections but not before mid-2019.
Is Libya ready for elections?
In May, when al-Serraj and Haftar met in Paris, powerful armed groups in western Libya that officially fell under the GNA’s authority rejected the move.
They said it went against their interests.
Analysts told Al Jazeera at the time that political leaders agreeing to organise nation-wide polls would not necessarily be a popular measure among their supporters, especially in Tripoli where al-Serraj has to appease armed groups backing the government.
Some of these armed groups are now fighting to take over the capital.
Experts say they may well be able to break through Tripoli’s defences and establish a foothold in the government where they will try to re-negotiate their relationship with the GNA.
Megerisi said the Seventh Brigade employ a populist narrative of wanting to curb corruption and improve life for the average citizen but there is no gurantee that this is what they will do once in power.
“Everybody is vying for a piece of the pie,” he added.
A more immediate concern is the absence of a constitution to govern the electoral process and set out the mandate of executive, legislative and judicial branches of government.
Muntasser, the Libyan political analyst, suggests authorities take a different approach altogether by holding elections in regions that are under civilian control and deemed to be free and secure enough for a vote.
He said that as elections progress and are held in qualifying regions, a new parliament would be gradually formed.
“The new parliament will possess sovereignty and will have full legislative powers, including the authority to form a government, regardless of the number of members who will be voted in.
“This process will continue and more elections shall be held in an incremental fashion with districts electing their representatives to join the newly formed and functioning parliament,” Muntasser added.
WATCH: Inside Story – What can France offer to end the crisis in Libya?
I am a great fan of Spike Lee’s cinema and have followed his extraordinary career closely. A few of his films, fiction and documentary, such as Do the Right Thing (1989) and 4 Little Girls (1997), I consider among the masterpieces of world cinema. Malcolm X (1992), his greatest film, is a staple of the courses I teach at Columbia.
When his new film, BlacKkKlansman (2018) came out, a filmmaker friend and I made arrangements to go and see it right away at my regular hangout, Magic Johnson Theater in Harlem. We sat there dutifully from beginning to the end of the film waiting, hoping against hope, for the other shoe to drop. Alas! It never did.
It is deeply disconcerting to watch the decisive failures of an iconic filmmaker you have always loved and admired. How could a gifted filmmaker who in his youthful thirties made a powerful epic like Malcolm X, in his mature 60s make a reactionary flop like BlacKkKlansman? What happened?
The question is not disappointment in one filmmaker, in one of his films. The implications of the failure, given the serious subject matter of the film, are far more important.
What happened?
After I saw the film I went to read some of the reviews to see if I had missed anything. In the first sentence of his review of BlacKkKlansman, the prominent New York Times film critic AO Scott declares the film Spike Lee’s “best nondocumentary feature in more than a decade and one of his greatest.”
Although we frequent the same movie theatres, he and I must have seen two different films, I thought. AO Scott’s laudatory review marked precisely where the trouble lies in this astonishingly reactionary film.
So how could the epic filmmaker who gave the world Malcolm X be so blindsided in his latest film and how can critics fail to call him out? What happened?
Let me cut to the chase: Barack Obama happened – the most reactionary liberal affliction to the revolutionary momentum that was set in motion by generations of black critical thinkers and social movements capped by their crowning achievement, Malcolm X. That is what happened. Let me explain. (Spoiler alert: If you have not seen the film yet don’t read the rest of this essay until you do).
BlacKkKlansman is a biopic based on the 2014 memoir Black Klansman by Ron Stallworth. Set in 1970s Colorado Springs, the film narrates the story of an African American detective who infiltrates the local chapter of the Ku Klux Klan. This setting provides the background against which we see the ridiculous antics and delusional racism of the KKK.
As a period piece, the film could have been a perfectly powerful examination of the nasty roots of racism in the US. The trouble with the film starts when it leaps to larger ambitions, of being relevant today – in Trump’s America, when the deep-rooted racism, xenophobia, and bigotry definitive to this country have come out for a joyride.
With punctual references to the Black Lives Matter movement, many other suggestive phrasings, and the decisive ending of the film with footage or the the Neo-Nazi white supremacist Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, as well as with many interviews after the film was released, Spike Lee has made it clear this is a film about now, and not just about then.
And it is this big ambition that makes BlacKkKlansman a politically outdated, retrograde, cliche-ridden nostalgia – indeed, not a period piece but a museum piece at a time when the world is in dire need not of more truisms of racism in the US but a deeper examination of the renewed roots of its resurgence, and the arts and ideas of how and where to fight it.
It is here, today, that Spike Lee in his latest film proves to be a deeply flawed, deeply reactionary filmmaker out of touch with the ugly truths of his own society.
If a film made in 2018, in Trump’s America, does not see that anti-black racism, anti-Jewish antisemitism, anti-Muslim Islamophobia, and anti-immigrant xenophobia are all variations on the same white supremacy theme, it has failed to see racism. It has fetishised the racist manufacturing of the colour “black”, bought into the white-centred codification of power, remained trapped in the dominant racist discourse, and failed to see or show beyond into any horizon of liberation form them all.
Myopic provincialism
By adopting myopic provincialism and abandoning the larger national and global context of racism and militarism, BlacKkKlansman shoots itself in the foot. Neither in the 1960sand – a fortiori – neither now, was the liberation of black people so insular and unaware of the larger global context.
While towering moral voices of the time like Martin Luther King Jr and Mohammad Ali were widely aware of the link between domestic racism and global militarism of the United States, it was Malcolm X who blasted the black liberation movement into global context by actively connecting it to African, Asian, and Latin American revolutionary mobilisations.
In his film, Spike Lee seems entirely oblivious to any such relation of what the fight against racism at home and militarism abroad means. All he had to do was to look at the aggressive militarisation of police forces, particularly in black neighbourhoods like Fergusson, and pay some attention to the fact that Israeli security forces are training them.
The reason why BlacKkKlansman doesn’t make this connection is because it targets the Obama liberals as its choice audience and stays there from beginning to end. In the process, the film gives short shrift to the most revolutionary mobilisation of African American politics in the 20th century, reducing it to cartoonish characters who speak like robots, act like mindless minions, and exude a fanatical obsession with their race.
In catering to a middle-class Obama voters’ audience, Spike Lee remains fatally limited to a white liberal constituency that join in laughing at David Duke and other ridiculous KKK caricatures and never see themselves implicated in the terror of Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, Stephen Miller, and the rest of their wicked company.
These creatures did not come out of nowhere. Their roots are right under Spike Lee’s nose. But he does not see it.
In perhaps the most abusive sequence of the film, we see the venerable figure of Harry Belafonte (as “Mr Turner”) surrounded by young revolutionary activists moved to the liberating cry of “Black Power” intercut with a KKK initiation ceremony’s crescendo to “White Power!” – devoid of any understanding of the differences between the two cries, one by a victorious racist ideology, the other by a defiant mobilisation against it.
Behind history, not ahead of it
Today, a racist Trump campaign aide screams at an African American man, “You’re out of your cotton-picking mind!” loudly and openly on national television and gets away with it. Today, a white Florida GOP gubernatorial nominee publicly warns a vote for his black opponent would “monkey this up” and also gets away with it.
Yet, in his film, Spike Lee decided to come nowhere near and decidedly stays far away from the roots of this evil to give his liberal white audiences a football field of comfort zone not to see themselves in such ugly phrases. BlacKkKlansman is made for a “post-racial” delusion in a pre-Civil War resurgence of racism in the United States.
Laser-focusing on the ridiculous KKK and partaking lavishly in the liberal class-conscious disdain of the white working-class places Spike Lee right next to Obama’s liberal imperialism and far from the heart of the Black Lives Matter movement, now definitive to this generation of progressive politics.
In his 2018 reading of racism, Spike Lee opts to come nowhere near a Muslim or a Mexican or an Arab or Afghan refugee as the primary targets of Trump-era xenophobia. There is not a clue of the interpolated spread of racism across the US society. Only a cliche-ridden rendition of a black police officer frozen in his cocoon, cut off from the moral fabric of his time and history.
This was not the America of the 1970s, and this is not the America of the Trump terror. “While this platform is focused on domestic policies,” reads the platform of The Movement for Black Lives (M4BL), right now in 2018, “we know that patriarchy, exploitative capitalism, militarism, and white supremacy know no borders. We stand in solidarity with our international family against the ravages of global capitalism and anti-Black racism, human-made climate change, war, and exploitation.” This is now. This is at the time that Spike Lee was making his film – and yet he is farthest removed from its towering moral power.
“The Movement for Black Lives stands with the Palestinian people and especially those in Gaza, that have been engaging in resistance at the Gaza border.” This, too, is the position of the single most powerful moral stand of Black Lives Matter today when Spike Lee made his film under the illusion that he has something to teach these brave and visionary activists.
There are a couple of references to Angela Davis in the film but no awareness of what she stood for then or what she or other luminary revolutionary leaders like Alice Walker stand for now. What sustained the civil rights movement of the 1960s were the massive demonstrations against the Vietnam war, was the now legendary MLK speech at Riverside Church on April 4, 1967, on militarism and racism, was Muhammad Ali’s heroic refusal to be drafted into the US army to go kill people who had done him no harm.
What enriches the M4BL today is in equal terms its antiwar positions in Iraq and Afghanistan and particularly against the Israeli crimes in Palestine. None of this means anything to Lee in his latest film. His myopia is blinding.
Failing to read the present moment
By the time we get to Spike Lee’s final montage of the Charlottesville Unite the Right rally in August 2017, when platoons of racist Americans faced courageous counterdemonstrators, he has wasted so much precious time on cliche antiquarianism and demonisation of black activism that it feels and looks like a cheap-shot slapstick.
Because of its sustained dramatic failures, the film ends with this forced denouement that fakes a Brechtian “Distancing effect” but ends up being a cop-out of any meaningful resolution to a moral crisis he had failed to map out.
There are student activists present at that rally who have strongly objected to Lee’s use of that clip and accuse him of opportunism and of abusing their anti-racist movement to cap a deeply flawed rendition of black revolutionary activism and of whitewashing the role of the police then and now.
They have even pointed to Spike Lee receiving money from the New York Police Department to whitewash their image in black communities. But, again, serious as these charges might be, the question is not just historical inaccuracies. The issue is the moral imagination of the film itself, which is so deeply flawed.
The racist white supremacy that stages itself in bold vulgarity in Charlottesville rally or in the White House has its roots in the liberal imperialism that happily handed its reigns to the first black president for eight years before losing it to its more vulgar version that Trump embodies.
The potent liberal roots of that white supremacy get a free pass in Spike Lee’s new film, happily hide in the dark movie houses and laugh at idiot klansmen and write laudatory reviews of his film. This is what the liberal blind spot of a visionary filmmaker did not allow him to see.
I will continue to love, respect, and admire Spike Lee for the best of his work, above all for his monumental achievement Malcolm X. At issue here is not one filmmaker failing to live up to his own best work in his latest film.
The issue, rather, is the changing neoliberal climate of opposition to Trump that is abusing a legitimate criticism of a racist charlatan to muddy the water and dismantle an entire critical history of black revolutionary thinking and action against racism, with the token of Obama liberalism distorting an entire spectrum of far more serious promises.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.