This is the lowest area for this day of the year in our records dating back to 1967.

— Norway Ice Service (@Istjenesten) August 22, 2018

This is the 2nd lowest area on record for this day of the year, only 2004 (133,892 sq km) was lower.

— Norway Ice Service (@Istjenesten) August 15, 2018

The #Svalbard #seaice area from the ice chart for 23rd Aug 2018 is 124,738 sq km. This is 104,909 sq km below the 1981-2010 average. #Arctic

— Norway Ice Service (@Istjenesten) August 23, 2018

Kavanaugh Confirmation

The Arizona Republican’s head-snapping moves Friday left Washington in shock and Brett Kavanaugh in renewed jeopardy.

Four senators undecided on Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination gathered Thursday night for a quiet chat with earth-shaking consequences. The topic: How to handle sexual assault allegations against the judge without embarrassing their chamber.

In Susan Collins’ third-floor office in the Capitol, she and her Republican colleagues Jeff Flake of Arizona, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — joined by Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia — agreed they had the power to make or break Kavanaugh. And they decided to use it to insist on a prolonged process to vet the nominee, rather than to kill Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination outright, according to two people familiar with the meeting,

Story Continued Below

What resulted on Friday afternoon threw Washington into chaos and guaranteed another week of uncertainty and suspense surrounding Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Just hours after Flake endorsed Kavanaugh and seemed to put him on a path to the high court, the Arizonan said he first wanted a week-long FBI investigation into Christine Blasey Ford’s allegation that the judge assaulted her. It was a victory for Democrats who’d been demanding such a probe, to no avail, and promises to define the retiring Flake’s legacy as someone who refused to let Kavanaugh get a vote while under a cloud of doubt.

The 18 hours between the Thursday night gathering in Collins’ office and Flake’s surprise announcement capped an epic week filled with emotional testimony, brutal partisanship and a nearly unanimous feeling that the Senate had stumbled in front of the nation. But the Flake-led rebellion, however long it lasts, had been building for nearly two weeks.

Though Murkowski, Collins and Manchin all endorsed the FBI investigation on Friday, Flake needed another partner to pull off his move because none of them serve on the Judiciary Committee. So Flake, who’s been mocked for writing a book blasting the Trump presidency only to vote for his agenda, teamed up with a Democrat.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) has spent his eight-year Senate career making earnest attempts to build relationships with Republicans, at times to liberals’ annoyance. He and Flake have taken trips around the world together as part of their duties. And on Friday afternoon, with a Supreme Court seat on the line, it all paid off.

Coons and Flake vacated the Judiciary Committee shortly before the panel was expected to vote to advance Kavanaugh, a seemingly innocuous moment that left onlookers increasingly bewildered as more senators joined them in the back room. They returned minutes later with a deal that forced GOP leaders to bow to the minority’s demand for an FBI probe, delaying the confirmation for as much as a week.

“I did not expect him to do this today,” Coons said of Flake, speaking for nearly everyone in official Washington.

Republican leaders say they still expect Kavanaugh will make it to the bench, even as the 53-year-old appeals court judge faces an investigation none of them can control. But GOP leaders were still worried about Flake even after he issued a statement Friday morning arguing that he hadn’t seen enough evidence to deny Kavanaugh his vote, according a senior GOP official.

Shortly that statement went out, two women confronted Flake in a Senate elevator, shouting at him as he stood silent, looking chagrined. “What you are doing is allowing someone who actually violated a woman to sit on the Supreme Court. This is not tolerable,” one woman shouted. The clip went viral.

In fact, Flake was playing a longer game. He said his statement supporting Kavanaugh was a signal to Republicans that he wasn’t joining the Democratic resistance and would show he wasn’t out to bring Kavanaugh’s nomination down.

“I hoped that would help provide leverage,” Flake recounted. But he needed some Democrats to endorse the FBI investigation, if not Kavanaugh’s nomination, to get fellow Republicans to agree.

Flake wanted to demonstrate “that the process is fair, at least, even if [Democrats are] not going to vote for” Kavanaugh, he added.

Coons opposes Kavanaugh and was preparing to deliver a speech on Friday morning lambasting Kavanaugh’s steady advance toward confirmation despite Ford’s compelling testimony. But then the Delaware senator had a different idea.

‘Am I trying to make an argument that could possibly persuade my friend Jeff Flake, or I am trying to make an argument that is simply for history?’” Coons recalled afterward. “I significantly revised my comments to make them somehow persuasive to anyone who might be interested.”

In his speech, little-noticed at the time, Coons suggested that someone with a “partisan agenda” might have leaked to the media Ford’s letter alleging the assault — harmonizing with what Republicans had been saying for days. Coons’ speech, which also repeated his request for an FBI investigation, blindsided members of both parties.

But it was exactly what Flake was looking for.

Not long afterward the two and colleagues in both parties repaired to a committee anteroom to hash out an agreement: Democrats would endorse a one-week FBI investigation into Kavanaugh, and Flake would use his leverage in the narrowly divided Senate and threaten to vote “no” on the floor if Republicans refused to go along.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), whose angry defense of Kavanaugh at Thursday’s hearing shocked fellow senators, interjected Friday to make clear that it was up to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) whether to abide Flake. Graham said he himself didn’t think an FBI probe was needed.

“He’s very sincere. And I don’t doubt his motivates. And he’s in a position that he can dictate the terms in many ways,” Graham said of Flake. “I don’t need it but we’ll see where everybody’s at, it’s called democracy.”

Yet Flake said he was not “comfortable” moving forward without an investigation, a clear sign of where Collins and Murkowski might come down if the Senate voted on Saturday as originally planned. Collins, Murkowski, Flake and Judiciary Committee Republicans filed into the GOP leader’s office as it became clear that his goal of seating Kavanaugh by Oct. 1 was now in serious jeopardy.

During the closed-door meeting on Friday, McConnell warned Flake, Collins and Murkowski that the Kavanaugh vote “wasn’t going to get easier,” the senior GOP official said. Republicans believe more allegations may surface in the coming days. But with few other options, McConnell begrudgingly agreed to put off further votes on Kavanaugh for a week at most.

Flake had been inching toward his Friday stand ever since the Washington Post reported Ford’s account on Sept. 16. After reading the story, he quickly called for Ford to testify, rattling GOP leaders given his pivotal swing vote role on the Judiciary Committee. Once they moved to set up the meeting up, Flake went virtually silent, simply repeating over and over again that he was glad the hearing was happening.

Once it was over, Flake began agonizing over his decision. But his plan began to come into focus when he met with the three other senators on Thursday evening to figure out his next move.

Flake gave nothing away, explaining to reporters late Thursday that he was still undecided but worried that a delay would allow time for more “ludicrous” allegations — two other named women besides Ford also went public this week — to be lodged against Kavanaugh. Then came his Friday morning statement, and it appeared Kavanaugh was safe.

Republicans were ebullient. They were still waiting on Collins and Murkowski but seemed increasingly confident that they’d won one of the ugliest fights in their careers.

“I think the tide has shifted to him,” Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) said of Kavanaugh as he headed toward an informal GOP lunch on Friday. ”Of course it could change. Tide comes in and goes out, you know?”

Little did Shelby know at the time, but the tide was ebbing as he spoke. The Judiciary Committee was plodding toward a vote on Kavanaugh when the atmosphere suddenly changed: Flake, strangely, appeared to skip his opportunity to make a closing statement.

That kicked off the series of talks between Flake and senators in both parties in the back room, away from the cameras, that began when Flake pulled Coons aside. Multiple members of the committee, from Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) to Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), were pulled into the discussion as Flake outlined his conditions.

Immediately after Flake’s public turnabout, liberals who have led the anti-Kavanaugh campaign were evidently worried that they’d fallen into a trap after some Democrats endorsed the investigation.

“The White House can define the FBI investigation,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said. “They can control the investigation.”

But Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) said that Flake, Collins and Murkowski would have their own effective leverage over any FBI process that they believed was incomplete in investigating Kavanaugh.

“It’s better than where we were before,” Klobuchar said. “I’ll just leave it at that.”

Whether Kavanaugh will ultimately be confirmed seems to hinge on what the FBI does or doesn’t find. GOP leaders have tried to meet all the requests made of them.

Collins asked that Kavanaugh’s friend Mark Judge, whom Ford alleges was in the room during the alleged assault, sign a letter and send it to the committee rather than let his lawyer do it, according to two Republican senators. The letter was turned around in a matter of hours. And Murkowski had endorsed an FBI investigation days before, only to change her tune after meeting for more than a half-hour privately with McConnell.

But Flake’s use of his leverage was the most surprising. No one thought he would change course after explicitly endorsing Kavanaugh, even amid heavy pressure from the left. And even in derailing McConnell’s best-laid plans, it’s clear Flake could still anger anti-Kavanaugh crusaders when all is said and done.

“I am a conservative. I would like to see Judge Kavanaugh confirmed. And I hope to be able to do that,” Flake said after leaving the meeting with McConnell. “But I want a better process … involving the FBI, reopening the background investigation, which is what so many of my colleagues and people across the country have been asking for.”

Kavanaugh Confirmation

Key witnesses such as Mark Judge appear to have agreed to cooperate with the newly ordered probe.

A re-opened FBI probe into Brett Kavanaugh’s background and whether he engaged in sexual misconduct is a longshot to turn up definitive proof, but could still unearth damaging information about the embattled Supreme Court nominee or his accusers.

That’s because key witnesses such as Mark Judge, Kavanaugh’s high school friend who reportedly was present for an alleged sexual assault against Christine Blasey Ford, appear to have agreed to cooperate with the FBI after earlier providing more limited statements to the Senate Judiciary Committee denying Ford’s claims or saying they couldn’t recall events she described.

Story Continued Below

Former FBI officials and others who have dealt extensively with background investigations say the FBI say agents could come up with new details, particularly since they can now work off of detailed testimony Ford and Kavanaugh gave to the Senate Judiciary Committee Thursday and other newly available evidence, like Kavanaugh’s calendars.

“There’s a chance, if they’re delving into specific things,” former FBI assistant director Tom Fuentes said of the possibility the bureau will find previously undisclosed facts or witnesses. “Even Kavanaugh raised a few issues all by himself that might merit further looking at. My opinion is he went way over the top when he kept talking about how much he likes beer….Kavanaugh is vulnerable here.”

One attorney familiar with the background check process said questions asked by trained FBI agents could elicit different answers than those asked by Senate GOP staffers, who conducted their own inquiry into many of the allegations.

“The FBI is more experienced than the Senate staff. I’d be concerned about either side really that their questions were already slanted to reflect certain answers,” said Mark Zaid, who represents government employees in security clearance disputes. “I have little faith in either the majority or the minority to ask the right questions. I’d hope the bureau would not be tainted by that and will just want to find out the facts.”

Zaid said different investigators can get dramatically different information from witnesses. “I often see in a background investigation completely different and new information elicited depending on how you ask the questions,” he said.

For weeks, the White House and Senate Republican leaders have rebuffed calls to reopen Kavanaugh’s background investigation. But as Kavanaugh’s nomination was heading to a vote Friday in the Senate Judiciary Committee, Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) said he would insist on a further FBI inquiry as a way to try to assuage doubts about the nominee.

Once it became clear Flake’s call was backed by at least two other GOP senators, the White House said President Donald Trump agreed to order the FBI to look into the allegation against Kavanaugh. While senators agreed to give the FBI up to a week to investigate, Trump seemed to shorten the timeline a bit, saying he wants the probe finished in less than seven days.

Some Republican senators said Friday they consider any further work by the FBI futile.

“I don’t think we need this….I just don’t see we’re going to benefit from anything,” Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) told reporters. “I’ve been doing this most of my adult life. It’s 35 years ago. You know what you know and you know what you’re going to hear….The fact pattern here leads itself to, ‘I’m sorry. There’s just not enough.’ We got to move on.”

Former Justice Department official Mike Zubrensky, who spent almost seven years vetting Obama administration judicial appointees, disputed Graham’s claim.

“I don’t think it’s a pointless undertaking,” said Zubrensky, now chief counsel for the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights, which opposes Kavanaugh’s confirmation.

Zubrensky noted that the FBI probe would mean yet another opportunity for Kavanaugh to be interviewed about his conduct.

“The FBI would look at the statements he made yesterday during his hearing and if there’s conflicting or inconsistent information or evidence acquired during the course of the investigation and likely ask Judge Kavanaugh about the apparent inconsistencies. I do think the testimony provides a lot more information to work off of.”

Among the specific facts the FBI might be able to confirm is a detail Ford sought clarification about during her testimony Thursday. She said knowing when Kavanaugh’s friend Judge worked at a Maryland Safeway supermarket in the summer of 1982 would help her narrow down the date of the alleged assault. A book judge wrote says he bagged groceries in 1982, but doesn’t provide further details.

The FBI may also be able to turn up more information about whether the party Ford recalls may coincide with a July 1, 1982, entry on Kavanaugh’s calendar that appears to show he, Judge and other friends attended a party that evening at the home of a friend in Rockville, Maryland. Some details about the home seem to align with Ford’s description, but others do not, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Republicans have sought to limit the scope of the new investigation to one week in duration and to claims already raised with the Senate Judiciary Committee. That appears to sweep in Ford’s allegations as well as Deborah Ramirez’s assertion that Kavanaugh exposed himself to her at a drunken party at Yale when the two were both freshmen there 35 years ago and Julie Swetnick’s claims that she attended a series of parties where Kavanaugh and Judge spiked punch with alcohol or drugs in order to incapacitate women. Swetnick asserts that some of the women were gang raped, although she doesn’t say Kavanaugh or Judge took part in that.

Kavanaugh and Judge have flatly denied the claims.

Graham cautioned that the reopening of the FBI probe should not be allowed to lead to further delays in Kavanaugh’s confirmation or to a spiraling series of allegations others could level against Kavanaugh. “We’re not playing this game of opening this up and it goes on forever,” the South Carolina Republican warned.

However, Fuentes said he wouldn’t be surprised if, despite the scores of Kavanaugh classmates who have emerged to support him, more comes out of the woodwork to accuse him of things now that the FBI is investigating.

“Everyone is assuming that Kavanaugh is beloved by every classmate and every woman he ever mentored. Sometimes overachievers weren’t all that popular,” the former FBI executive said. “He’s very vulnerable in this as well, even to someone lying. Could his nomination withstand any additional accusations, true or untrue? Maybe not.”

It seems likely that at least some people who claim to have relevant information about the current accusations against Kavanaugh and were not interviewed by Senate investigators will wind up talking to the FBI.

They include Judge’s ex-girlfriend Elizabeth Rasor, who has suggested she’s willing to discuss some of the boasts he made about sexual antics while attending Georgetown Prep with Kavanaugh.

Lawyers for two other Kavanaugh accusers, Ramirez and Swetnick, have also said they’re ready to speak with the FBI. Swetnick’s lawyer Michael Avenatti has also said she has witnesses who can corroborate her story that Kavanaugh attended parties where girls were slipped alcohol or drugs and subjected to sexual advances or even gang rape.

Despite the talk of cooperation, uncertainty remains whether all the witnesses the FBI may want to talk to will actually wind up being interviewed by agents.

For one thing, there are disagreements about how the results of the interviews should be treated.

Judge’s letter Friday saying he would cooperate with any law enforcement investigation indicates that he’ll do so if the inquiry is handled “confidentially.”

However, Swetnick’s attorney rejected that approach.

“We want the results and information made public.” Avenatti wrote on Twitter Friday afternoon.

Results of background investigations are typically held in confidence by the Judiciary Committee, although it may be unrealistic to expect that information to remain secret given the white-hot media spotlight on Kavanaugh.

Zubrensky said it is common for people to ask to speak to the FBI in confidence about a nominee. “I read hundreds, perhaps thousands of summaries of background checks during five or six years in the Obama administration,” he said. “Most of the time people go on the record, but in a number of instances they said to the FBI: ‘I’ll talk to you but I don’t want to be identified.’”

If witnesses don’t want to speak to the FBI or fear they’ll be prosecuted for something, the bureau lacks the power to make them talk. “Nobody has to talk to the FBI, even if you’re accused of treason,” Fuentes noted.

The compromise several senators insisted on Friday punts a highly polarized issue to the FBI at a time when the bureau is still reeling from more than a year’s worth of public attacks from Trump related to the Russia probe and intense scrutiny from outsiders and the media of alleged bias in the FBI’s ranks.

But Fuentes said he doesn’t think the FBI will balk at the task.

“The bureau has an army of people they can apply…About two-thirds of the Washington Field Office does background investigations,” he said, while adding that FBI leaders could even order in other agents from elsewhere to handle the Kavanaugh probe.

“It’s referred to as a bureau special,” the former FBI official aid. “Now, the pressure’s on the FBI. Now, they have to do a credible job themselves….They’re going to do what they have to do and be diligent and thorough about it, especially now that the whole world is watching.”