MISSOULA, Mont. — President Donald Trump on Thursday amped up his focus on immigration ahead of the midterm elections by claiming, without evidence, that Democrats were behind a group of Central American migrants trying to reach the U.S.

“This will be an election of Kavanaugh, the caravan, law and order and common sense,” Trump said during a political rally in Missoula, Mont., referring to the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

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Returning to the first issue that helped him vanquish more than a dozen Republican rivals in the 2016 campaign, the president emphasized the need to build a border wall, lest his supporters forget about reports of another caravan of 4,000 Central American migrants traveling from Honduras with hopes of entering the U.S. Trump, flirting with conspiracy theories about the possibility that the migrants are being paid off, said money was being “passed through” those very people.

“Now we’re starting to find out — and I won’t say it 100 percent, I’ll put it a little tiny question mark on the end, but we’re not going to get it, but we have the fake news back there, fake news — a lot of money has been passing through people to try to get to the border by Election Day, because they think that is a negative for us,” the president told the crowd. “Number one, they are being stopped and number two, regardless, that’s our issue.”

Trump appeared to be referring to a video that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), a frequent ally, posted on Twitter on Wednesday that supposedly depicted migrants in Honduras “giving cash” to migrants in the Central American country as they set of for the U.S. Going even further, Gaetz called for an investigation to examine whether “US-backed NGOs” or the financier George Soros, a frequent subject of conservative conspiracy theories, were behind the alleged payments. Trump himself tweeted out the video on Thursday.

Regardless of what was actually being passed out in the video, where men are shown handing something to women waiting in line, there was evidence that the video was actually shot in Guatemala, not Honduras.

In an apparent correction of the location, Gaetz tweeted on Thursday: “Because a Honduran government official sent me this video, I believed it came from Honduras.” It is not known when the video was shot.

At the rally, the president added that Democrats figured “everybody coming in” was going to vote for their candidates — though he did not mention that only legal citizens can participate in elections, and that attaining nationality and registering to vote is a process that can’t be completed before Nov. 6.

White House aides and allies said the president has been smarting over the uptick in border crossings and the group heading toward the U.S.-Mexican border. On Trump’s way to the Montana rally, scenes of the caravan played on a loop on Fox News, to which TVs aboard Air Force One were tuned. Presidential aides said that polling they’d reviewed internally showed the migrant issue rising in importance with midterm voters, and that they expected Trump to continue to focus on immigration policies.

According to a New York Times report, the group of migrants, estimated to be as large as 4,000 people, is making the journey to America for a number of reasons, including fleeing gang violence in their neighborhoods and others who simply want a more stable life for their children.

Immigration was just one of the themes Trump touched on during his roughly hour-long rally, which was billed as an event to boost the candidacy of Montana State Auditor Matt Rosendale, who is seeking to oust Sen. Jon Tester in what was originally expected to be one of the toughest seats for Democrats to defend.

In his usual loose and off-script style, the president mentioned everything from Hillary Clinton’s emails and the 2012 attack Benghazi, Libya, to the manufacturing of F35s, the treatment of Kavanaugh and just why Montana is called Big Sky country.

Amid one riff, Trump explicitly praised Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte’s body slamming of Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs during his special election campaign last year.

“Any guy who can do a body slam is my guy,” Trump said, while praising the Montana Republican. “I think it might help him, and it did,” he added of the effect the episode had on the race.

Republicans have said Senate Democrats’ treatment of Kavanaugh amid allegations of sexual assault jolted their base in the past couple of weeks and has forced candidates like Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) to go on the defensive. Trump has said the handling of his Supreme Court pick’s nomination made Democrats unworthy of holding on to power, but on Thursday he also brought up the treatment of former White House physician Ronny Jackson, saying the two episodes were virtually identical.

Jackson was nominated to be Veterans Affairs secretary, but withdrew from consideration and resigned from his job after reports alleged that he drank on the job, over-prescribed medicine to employees and created a hostile work environment. The allegations against Jackson were primarily publicized by Tester, a fact that Trump hasn’t forgotten.

“He never had a problem in his whole life — a little bit like Justice Kavanaugh. Really a fine, high-quality, handsome guy,” Trump said of Jackson. “He was going to be my choice, and he was attacked so viciously and so violently by Jon Tester.”

Elections

Unlikely? Definitely. Impossible? No.

Just about every poll predicts it won’t happen: Suburban voters are too fed up with Donald Trump, and Democrats too awash in cash, for Nancy Pelosi’s party not to seize the House on Nov. 6.

And yet House Republicans — and privately, even a few Democrats — say the GOP could still hang on, if only by a few seats. The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has given GOP voters a badly needed enthusiasm boost, they argue, and several races seen as unwinnable just weeks ago are suddenly back within reach for Republicans.

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Democrats, meanwhile, have retreated from several battlegrounds once considered prime targets. They’ve also deserted a Democratic-controlled open seat in Minnesota, creating a new, rare pickup opportunity for Republicans in a cycle where they’ve consistently been on defense.

“The environment has significantly improved over the past few weeks,” said Corry Bliss, executive director of the GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund. “For the first time in months, we have the wind at our backs instead of in our face. Now it is incumbent upon Republicans to keep that up.”

There’s also the still-fresh memory of election night two years ago. Even Trump, by some accounts, expected to lose, and all the political experts who predicted a Hillary Clinton romp were left red-faced.

“Let’s not forget the same geniuses that predicted a huge romp by that woman who lost in 2016 are the same people predicting a huge win by the Democrats this time,” Kellyanne Conway said on Fox News last week. “So we have to be a little bit cautious.”

Nevertheless, it’s indisputable Republicans are in a serious jam: Democrats have infinitely more paths to win the chamber than Republicans do of holding it. Even Republicans admit that Democrats have already closed out about 15 races, well over halfway to the 23 seats they need to win the majority. Democrats are competing in more than 75 districts currently represented by Republicans, giving them ample room to secure the final dozen seats needed to take the majority.

At the same time, Republicans say there’s no question that their lot has improved in the past few weeks. Their internal polls show the president’s approval ratings have increased by an average of 5 points in a handful of swing districts, giving Republicans who were underwater a fighting chance.

GOP fortunes have improved in a grab bag of districts, from Trump strongholds where the Kavanaugh battle has energized conservatives, to racially diverse districts where incumbents with strong connections to voters appear to be staving off challengers.

After pulling money out of Republican Rep. Rod Blum’s Iowa district, figuring they had his seat won, Democrats recently started spending there again to blunt an unexpected surge by the incumbent. GOP internal polling has Blum up 4 points, and Republicans are pouring in a further $1 million to help Blum, who’d previously been viewed as a lost cause.

Republicans are also feeling increasingly hopeful about holding onto retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen’s open Florida seat, long considered a toss-up. Their internal polls show Republican Maria Elvira Salazar tied or slightly ahead of Democrat Donna Shalala, who served in Bill Clinton’s Cabinet.

At the same time, Democrats have pulled money out of several districts that should be competitive, indicating that Republicans have solidified their leads in the closing days of the campaign. In the past two days, Democrats have retreated from an open seat in Minnesota where Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan is retiring and GOP recruit Pete Stauber is ahead in internal GOP polling.

Democrats are also taking money from the race to unseat GOP Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, who, Republicans say, has a healthy lead. That came just days after Democrats pulled out of Hispanic-populated districts represented by Rep. David Valadao in central California and Rep. Will Hurd along the Texas border. And they’ve withdrawn $800,000 in planned ads from Rep. Vern Buchanan’s Florida district, where the Democratic challenger, David Shapiro, trails the incumbent.

Democrats should have had “these seats put away by now, and they don’t,” House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said in an interview. “I feel like they’ve hit a ceiling and held there — and we’re coming back.”

Of course, everything would have to break their way for Republicans to eke out a victory. For one, several party officials said it’s critical that President Donald Trump not antagonize more suburban women in the run-up to the election with comments like the “horseface” insult he hurled at Stormy Daniels this week.

They also said they need to prolong the momentum of the Kavanaugh confirmation for a few more weeks — or, better, build upon it.

The party is laying the groundwork to try. Congressional Leadership Fund is planning to run a series of new Kavanaugh ads in swing districts. Trump and senior Republicans like McCarthy have also increased their focus on issues that excite the base, such as immigration and the border wall. The president is expected to start talking about work requirements for food stamp recipients, a popular idea with the right.

Independent analysts have recently downgraded the number of seats Democrats are expected to flip. Two weeks ago, Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman predicted Democrats could pick up 30 to 40 seats; now he puts the range at 25 to 35. Wasserman estimated that Republicans have a 30 percent chance of keeping the majority.

But while Wasserman noted the new enthusiasm boost on the right, which is limiting Democrats’ potential gains in Trump country, there’s still a question about whether it’s enough, he said.

“Republicans would have to win about two-thirds of these toss-ups [races] to hold the House,” he said. “That’s pretty hard to do.”

Republicans argue that they’ve put some of those seats away already. They feel good about Texas, where Democrats were targeting Reps. Pete Sessions, John Culberson and Hurd. They say California isn’t lost, pointing to what they call the improved prospects of GOP candidate Young Kim and incumbent Rep. Steve Knight, both running in battleground districts. (Democrats dispute their assessment of both Texas and California.)

At the same time, incumbents in traditional GOP strongholds have solidified their leads after scares from the left, Republicans say. They point to internal Republican polling showing leads for Reps. Andy Barr of Kentucky, Steve Chabot of Ohio, Mike Bost and Rodney Davis of Illinois, John Katko of New York and Brian Mast of Florida. (Democrats also disputed the leads cited in most of these GOP polls, saying their own numbers show the opposite.)

Democrats, however, are making inroads in several districts, too, forcing Republicans to cut off some incumbents. In addition to writing off Reps. Kevin Yoder of Kansa), Mike Coffman of Colorado and Keith Rothfus of Pennsylvania, some Republicans now think Minnesota Reps. Erik Paulsen and Jason Lewis are finished.

Republicans acknowledge that Pennsylvania is going to be a “bloodbath,” as one GOP campaign source called it. And Reps. Mimi Walters of California and Peter Roskam of Illinois, who are both closely aligned with GOP leadership, are in trouble, they say.

Indeed, while Democrats’ target list has contracted in some places in recent weeks, it has expanded in others. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began airing its first TV ads against Reps. Fred Upton of Michigan and Mast this week, while a pair of independent polls showed a close race brewing in retiring Rep. Dennis Ross’ (R-Fla.) seat outside Tampa, which has been reliable Republican territory in recent years.

Democrats also argue that the recent GOP enthusiasm boost has been overstated, pointing to Democratic candidates they say are outperforming GOP Reps. Mike Kelly in Pennsylvania and Jaime Herrera Beutler in Washington state.

“Given the way the district lines are drawn and the massive Republican outside money advantage,” saidDCCC spokesman Tyler Law, “we intentionally built the largest battlefield in a decade to create multiple paths to the majority and spread Republicans thin, including in deep-red districts.”