Trade Packages and Landing Spots for Houston Rockets’ Star Chris Paul

Add the Houston Rockets to the list of teams likely to experience an overhaul this summer.

That was hardly unexpected following yet another postseason failure at the hands of the Golden State Warriors. Last season it took a record-breaking bit of incompetency from the three-point line for Houston to fall short in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals without “point god” Chris Paul.

This season was much different. Armed with a healthy Paul, the Rockets still failed to overcome the Warriors, who were without Kevin Durant, on their home court in Game 6.

“We’re going to have a strong offseason, and we’re going to do whatever we need to do to be a better team,” Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta promised following those Western Conference Semifinals. “We are not going to sit on our hands—I can promise you that.”

Adrian Wojnarowski reported Wednesday general manager Daryl Morey is open to moving on from almost anyone on the roster, but the disconnect hardly stops there. Landry Locker reported it was Fertitta’s decision to pick up head coach Mike D’Antoni’s option.

As a result, Morey moved on from assistant coach Roy Rogers and even associate coach and defensive specialist Jeff Bzdelik less than seven months after the Rockets asked him to return from retirement.

While Ty Lue has been mentioned as a possible candidate for the vacant lead assistant position, the most extensive and most meaningful overhaul will come on the floor, and that starts with the man who has been selected to nine All-Star teams, eight All-NBA teams and nine NBA All-Defensive teams as well as won Rookie of the Year, All-Star MVP and two Olympic gold medals.

It’s time for the Rockets to trade Paul.

Paul’s contract would be the most troubling part of this proposition.

To make matters even worse, Paul is declining. During the 2018-19 campaign, he produced the worst field-goal percentage of his career (41.9); his worst effective field-goal percentage since 2010-11 (50.8); his second-lowest assist total; more turnovers per game than he had in all but two previous seasons; and his lowest plus-minus since 2010-11. His playoff numbers produced similar outcomes.

Availability remains a concern for the 14-year veteran as well. Paul has played just 61 games or fewer in each of the last three seasons and has failed to play in 71 or more games all but twice since 2010-11.

But Paul is still more than a useful player. He was the league’s third-leading facilitator in 2018-19 with 8.2 assists per game and also ranked third in steals per game (2.0), and his 4.69 real plus-minus was still in the top five among point guards and 13th overall. According to data compiled by BBall Index, Paul still maintains a 99th percentile in offensive points over expectation, player impact plus-minus and regularized adjusted plus-minus.

So, who would be willing to overpay Paul over three years?

Charlotte Hornets

Let’s bring Paul home, shall we?

Born and raised in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, Paul attended Wake Forest University before being drafted by the New Orleans Hornets with the fourth overall selection in 2005.

But this would be more than a celebrated homecoming for the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets are already trapped in salary-cap prison because of the inflated contracts of players like Bismack Biyombo and Nicolas Batum. Besides, they need to sell Kemba Walker on reasons to return to Charlotte (on top of the five-year, $221 million extension only the Hornets can offer).

Paul and Walker may not make sense on paper, but we long ago learned to move on from the notion that point guards can’t share the floor. For Charlotte, bringing in Paul and the remaining three seasons on his contract would be worth that risk.

But doing so would require a bit of risk on the Rockets’ part, as Batum would need to be included in any deal to make the transaction feasible. Batum’s remaining two years and $52.7 million would be difficult to stomach, but it seems Morey is willing to move on from future picks to accelerate the Rockets’ overhaul. Could a third team like the Atlanta Hawks or Chicago Bulls take on one of the aforementioned players in exchange for draft capital?

And if the Rockets chose to send Batum to a third team for picks in this scenario, Marvin Williams or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist can still provide them with the long-bodied wing they missed this season after they lost Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute in free agency.

Miami Heat

A dark horse that many may not consider, the Miami Heat should be a player for Paul. The Heat could have $140 million on the books next season and need both salary relief as well as a backcourt upgrade with the possible departure of Goran Dragic (player option) in addition to Dwyane Wade.

Miami has the inflated contracts to make this deal all but easy. Hassan Whiteside’s $27.1 million player option would be the pact the Heat would seek to shed, and with Clint Capela rumored to be available, per Marc Stein of the New York Times, the Rockets may have minutes to spare. But because of Whiteside’s exorbitant salary, it would make more sense for Houston to stretch him over the course of three seasons and thereby recoup nearly $18 million in cap space in 2019-20.

One of Kelly Olynyk or James Johnson would need to be added to make the math work and could be a useful rotation player. Olynyk still carries a plus net rating as well as 35.4 percent three-point shooting touch on four attempts per game and big game experience.

Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns have long needed to pair an effective facilitator beside Devon Booker, and they may not find a better one right now than CP3. While Paul’s huge cap hit will cripple any free-agent flexibility the Suns may have, they don’t appear likely to score anyone of note anyway. The Suns’ one-year, $15 million overpay of Ariza paid no dividends outside of the possibility of overpaying restricted free agent Kelly Oubre Jr.

Phoenix should send out Tyler Johnson and Josh Jackson to pair Paul with Booker. Paul would re-instill enthusiasm in a franchise that has failed to practice relevance since its Western Conference Finals defeat at the hands of the Los Angeles Lakers in 2009-10. Bringing in a win-now veteran of Paul’s ilk could accelerate the rebuilding timeline.

A lineup of Paul, Booker, Mikal Bridges, T.J. Warren and Deandre Ayton would hardly create waves in the West, but it could help the youngsters’ offensive games. And when it comes time to extend Booker, Bridges, Warren and Ayton, Paul’s contract will have expired, allowing management to make whatever decisions it chooses.

The math in this transaction will not work in the current league year unless Warren is substituted for Jackson. Otherwise, the teams would need to wait for the league year to change on July 1, but the deal can be agreed to in principle before then.

Johnson and Jackson could be rotation players in Houston, but should the Rockets seek relief from Johnson’s expiring deal, it shouldn’t take more than a single first-rounder to move on from him. Jackson can likely be dumped for nothing due to his age and pedigree as the fourth overall selection in 2017. Jackson is not an efficient scorer, but he is an athletic and aggressive one. And because he is just 22 years old, teams would be willing to take a risk on the 6’8″ wing.

New York Knicks

Big things are coming to New York this summer (or so we’ve heard). Bringing in Paul alongside one of Kevin Durant or Anthony Davis could be exactly what fans need to bring back the buzz to Madison Square Garden.

The Knicks don’t have much in the way of contracts to deal outside of Lance Thomas’ $7.6 million expiring deal, but they have plenty of cap space to assimilate Paul’s contract while still keeping the requisite room to add Durant.

It should be noted that the Knicks have long been linked to Kyrie Irving and will almost certainly target him before Paul. However, the Brooklyn Nets have recently become the front-runner for the 2015-16 champion, according to B/R’s Ric Bucher. That would make dealing for one or both of Paul and Davis to dangle in front of Durant all the more pertinent.

While the purpose of this deal would be to offer cap space to the Rockets, the Knicks could sweeten the pot by adding one of Frank Ntilikina or Allonzo Trier to Thomas’ contract to give Houston developmental talent that can reinforce the backcourt position behind James Harden, Eric Gordon and Austin Rivers (who will be a free agent).

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers should be considered the favorite to acquire Paul.

They have the motivation and may even be desperate to take on Paul’s deal and can offer the Rockets developmental players.

This deal would be contingent upon L.A. striking out on both Irving and Walker in free agency. After ESPN.com’s Baxter Holmes reported on the dysfunction of the franchise, however, it appears unlikely either player would seek to join the Lakers when they may have their choice between the Nets, Knicks, Los Angeles Clippers and Indiana Pacers.

And as ESPN.com’s Ramona Shelbourne suggested on Brian Windhorst and the Hoop Collective (via Phillip Barnett of Warriors Wire), the Lakers may not even come close to Klay Thompson.

“I don’t think Klay even gives the Lakers a meeting,” she said. “If [the Warriors] don’t give him the full max, I think he goes someplace else.”

Making matters more intriguing, LeBron James has long been tied to his banana boat buddy Paul and even said he’d be willing to play off the ball last offseason.

In the exchange, the Rockets would receive Lonzo Ball or even Kyle Kuzma and Josh Hart should the Lakers look to pair Paul and Ball in the backcourt. Ball would reinforce the Rockets backcourt while also moving them $29.8 million below salary cap with his low-level $8.7 million salary.

All statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference, NBA.com and ESPN.com. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.