‘I think it’s over’: Sinema closes in on Arizona Senate victory

Elections

It would take a stunning reversal for Martha McSally to overtake the Democrat.

Arizona’s Senate race isn’t over. But Kyrsten Sinema should be feeling awfully good about her chances.

Down narrowly on election night, the Democratic congresswoman overtook Republican Martha McSally two days later and has since padded her lead to nearly 32,000 votes as mail-in ballots have been tallied. At this point, it would take a stunning reversal for the Republican to mount a comeback, since the vast majority of outstanding votes are in areas of the state where Sinema is ahead, in some cases by significant margins.

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Even some Republicans have begun to acknowledge the increasing likelihood of defeat.

“I think it’s over,” said Chuck Coughlin, a veteran Republican strategist in the state, crediting Democrats’ turnout operation, particularly among early voters. “It’s just not there. It’s not in the math.”

There are still nearly 220,000 votes left to be counted, and a new batch will be released Monday evening. But McSally would have to win 57 percent of the remaining votes to eke out a victory; she currently trails 49.6 percent to 48.1 percent.

Some national figures agree it’s all but over. One national Republican, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, said McSally’s potential path to victory is becoming “increasingly more difficult” and that the math “gets harder every day.”

Of the remaining uncounted votes, more than 90 percent — in excess of 200,000 ballots — are in counties where Sinema currently leads, and only about 16,000 are in counties where McSally is ahead. Republicans had been expecting the vote updates to begin to swing McSally’s way as the state began counting early ballots that were dropped off at polling places on Election Day late in the weekend, but Sinema continued to gain ground on Sunday.

The vast majority of ballots McSally would need to win are in Maricopa County, a traditional Republican stronghold where she currently trails Sinema by more than three percentage points.

Democrats have grown increasingly confident in Sinema’s chances with each update. Her campaign manager, Andrew Piatt, released a statement Sunday calling the Democrat’s lead “insurmountable.”

Mike Noble, a Republican pollster who surveyed the race throughout the cycle, assessed a McSally turnaround as “highly improbable.” McSally will likely bank votes in Pinal County, where she currently leads comfortably. She won a majority of the nearly 8,000 votes Pinal tabulated Monday afternoon, but failed to cut significantly into Sinema’s lead. And in addition to Maricopa, there are likely more than 36,000 votes left in Pima County, where Sinema is leading by double digits.

“The Senate race is pretty much over, unless there’s a miracle out there,” Noble said. “Statistically, it seems that Sinema will likely win.”

Not all Republican share that view. Robert Graham, the former chairman of the state GOP, said it’s too soon to count out McSally given the large number of uncounted ballots in Maricopa County. Though the county has skewed towards Sinema so far, Graham said a shift is still possible as the remaining ballots are counted early this week.

“I wouldn’t throw in the towel yet,” Graham said. “I think Martha still has a fighting chance.”

Republicans currently have a 51-49 Senate majority, and had a net gain of two seats on the night of the election after knocking off three Democratic incumbents, which party officials considered a major success.

Arizona would be the second GOP-held seat flipped by Democrats — they also won in Nevada — and would limit Republicans total gain to 53 seats at most, pending a recount in Florida, where Republican Gov. Rick Scott narrowly leads Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson.

Democrats had been cautiously optimistic about winning Arizona throughout the cycle. Sinema led in public and private polling for the majority of the race, having taken a lead after spending heavily on TV over the summer while McSally was still slogging through a three-way Republican primary, which she ultimately won easily.

But McSally steadily chipped away at Sinema’s lead, and the race went into election night considered a tossup after the parties and outside groups combined for more than $50 million in spending. Sinema ran towards the center while McSally ran as a strong Trump ally, a dynamic that may have helped Sinema with the state’s swing voters.

Sinema or McSally would become the first woman to represent Arizona in the Senate. Whoever wins will likely be joined soon by another newcomer. Sen. Jon Kyl currently holds the state’s other seat after being appointed to replace late Sen. John McCain, but Kyl has not committed to continuing to serve beyond this year.

There is some speculation in Arizona and Washington that if McSally loses this race, she could be appointed to replace Kyl, though neither she nor Republican Gov. Doug Ducey have mentioned the possibility publicly. Kyl or his potential replacement would have to run in a special election in 2020, and again for reelection in 2022.